Itstrainingtime Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That'll change come the New Year. Ensembles are sweet and every MJO forecast is outstanding, except the Australian BOMM, which should be bombed it's so bad. It had a Niño peak >+3C!!! Agreed - I mostly posted that in response to @Bubbler86 post last week about the lack of early season skiing locally. Last week, Roundtop looked like it might have been a good night's snowmaking away from opening but they're almost back to square one now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Looks like the main stem Susquehanna reaches high-end minor flood stages further NE, but just action stage at Harrisburg and Marietta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agreed - I mostly posted that in response to @Bubbler86 post last week about the lack of early season skiing locally. Last week, Roundtop looked like it might have been a good night's snowmaking away from opening but they're almost back to square one now. Despite the cold this week, I am guessing they are indeed out into January at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Despite the cold this week, I am guessing they are indeed out into January at this point. Maybe...though, if they can get a good run of snowmaking nights they might be able to open up limited terrain between Christmas and New Year's. The heavy rain/high temp combo called them this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Maybe...though, if they can get a good run of snowmaking nights they might be able to open up limited terrain between Christmas and New Year's. The heavy rain/high temp combo called them this weekend. That is my worry (rain) and the GFS/CMC showing more of the same next week. The GFS does end it as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is my worry (rain) and the GFS/CMC showing more of the same next week. The GFS does end it as snow. I'm beginning to think that it's not going to be cold and snowy until I return to PA. The same thing happened from 96-01 when I was out here. Snow was quite scarce back there during those years. I came back and all hell broke loose in 02-03. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is my worry (rain) and the GFS/CMC showing more of the same next week. The GFS does end it as snow. It "seems" like some of the early calls of little snow until 2024 might be coming to fruition. There's still time, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 The reversal begins: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: The reversal begins: You could have started thinking about sports or something and held out longer, so your money shot was this..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You could have started thing about sprots or something and held out longer so your money shot was this..... I saw it......But decided against posting at 384 map.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, paweather said: I saw it......But decided against posting at 384 map.. You can do it under the premise that the GFS is showing a string of coastals but totally agree, it will very likely be different in a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You could have started thinking about sports or something and held out longer, so your money shot was this..... God bless the GFS at 300+ hours. There's no greater entertainment on the planet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 6:54 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: God bless the GFS at 300+ hours. There's no greater entertainment on the planet. You mean like how this beauty panned out yesterday? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Snow starting to mix in with rain currently.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 You mean like how this beauty panned out yesterday? At least it has the qpf down pretty well that far out. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Have to go to Saratoga Springs Friday and come back Saturday. Anyone with a model access want to tell me if it is dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Winds gusting to 38 mph here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Squalls are starting to develop. Wind has definitely cranked up. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Lots of damage in New England from heavy rain + wind. Trees down many places and a friend in NH roof is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 GFS throwing stuff at the wall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS throwing stuff at the wall now. Looks good this far out LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: You mean like how this beauty panned out yesterday? Lol, looks like it was happy hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS throwing stuff at the wall now. The pattern change is underway by that time, so some of us might have a chance to score a couple of days before we ring in the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 I am getting fired up for the coming pattern to end the year & early January! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The pattern change is underway by that time, so some of us might have a chance to score a couple of days before we ring in the New Year. In defense of those questioning, this is not the end game many are wanting. I know, just an op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In defense of those questioning, this is not the end game many are wanting. I know, just an op run. There has been consensus for several days among the 3 major global ensembles… The pattern is changing… Buckle up…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 There has been consensus for several days among the 3 major global ensembles… The pattern is changing… Buckle up….At the risk of sounding like the trolls, you have been saying this for three years now. Your endless optimism that ends in nothing annoys me just as much as their trolldom. And I want you to be right. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: At the risk of sounding like the trolls, you have been saying this for three years now. Your endless optimism that ends in nothing annoys me just as much as their trolldom. And I want you to be right. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Lol, it’s not just me that’s optimistic at this time. Many good posters in the forums on here & several pro Forecasters are very much looking forward to the Winter potential of this pattern. Even some of the Debs are beginning to believe in the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Lol, it’s not just me that’s optimistic at this time. Many good posters in the forums on here & several pro Forecasters are very much looking forward to the Winter potential of this pattern. Even some of the Debs are beginning to believe in the pattern change. And I've heard/read that for three years as well. Until something of note happens, I give you as much credence as I do TheClimateTraveler. In other news, the ground has caved. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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