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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MAG started this "I'm mowing for others" campaign, and I'll just say this right here, right now...mowing other people's yards is truly an incredibly kind and wonderful gesture. It really is. My hat tip goes to people who serve others like that. The world needs a lot more of those kind of people. So if I must concede the trophy this year for that type of service...easiest decision I've ever made. 

ah, wait a minute. no kind gesture. Doing it for the trophy, the $30 per mow and the beer :lmao:

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I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. 

image.thumb.png.5e049a9b0bdaf29dc9d35d36fb3b76f9.png

This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. 

At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. 

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7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. 

image.thumb.png.5e049a9b0bdaf29dc9d35d36fb3b76f9.png

This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. 

At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. 

It’s good that we have 1 more model available on WB, but I’m sad it it doesn’t offer snow maps!

The 12z Euro AI still has the strong storm on Mid Atlantic coast on the morning of the 19th.

Let’s see how this model performs.

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s good that we have 1 more model available on WB, but I’m sad it it doesn’t offer snow maps!

The 12z Euro AI still has the strong storm on Mid Atlantic coast on the morning of the 19th.

Let’s see how this model performs.

 

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8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. 

image.thumb.png.5e049a9b0bdaf29dc9d35d36fb3b76f9.png

This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. 

At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. 

As you mentioned, the EPO looks to dive negative according to the EPS, which should help with cold air delivery to our region.

The other teleconnections also are forecast to be favorable for the 17th to 23rd period. Hopefully the teleconnections will minimize the impacts of the MJO.

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z GFS has a storm along the Mid Atlantic coast on St. Patty’s Day evening.

This would be a nice welcome back to PA for me!

IMG_5552.png

IMG_5553.png

GFS has it below freezing in Florida for the first full day of Spring. Ouch.   47 all the way down in Ft. Myers.  Impressive though just models right now. 

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