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Central PA Winter 23/24


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Up here in the poconos of NEPA many early mild/warm March's turned cold and snowy in the last half, not unusual for that to happen. In 2017 we had largest blizzard ever, late Feb early March was in the 60's and 70's; the snow accumulated on the ground and sun angle meant nothing. Hope springs eternal.

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Blizzard of 93 you should have woken earlier so you could post the 0Z GFS before the 6Z came out.  Both look much colder MR but 0Z was "better."

Oh you had better believe that I’m still posting the 0z GFS, Lol!

This storm chance shown on this run would fit the pattern that the GEFS extended & Euro Weeklies have been advertising for a couple of weeks now.

The run ends cold with maybe another chance behind it this this run.

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Frankly, I’d be surprised if we don’t at least have the chance to track a Winter storm chance for some places near our region with the advertised look on the 3 main ensembles for period of the 18th to the 23rd.

These are the 5 day ensemble means for the pattern….very consistent.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

MDT officially set the max min record yesterday of 48.  A quarter inch of rain here.  Count me amongst those who think the back half of March is more likely than not to end up BN.  Whether that means any snow to track, only time will tell.

Atomix will fong all of us if it snows. 

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Frankly, I’d be surprised if we don’t at least have the chance to track a Winter storm chance for some places near our region with the advertised look on the 3 main ensembles for periodic of the 18th to the 23rd.

These are the 5 day ensemble means for the pattern….very consistent.

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we saw that same consistency back in Feb. and we all know how that ended.  but now that we are heading into spring and most everybody, even some of us snow weenies are ready for this winter to end there's absolutely no doubt in my mind the pattern will flip to a wintry one and probably will have staying power right through April and into May.  i ok either way.  what I don't want is windy rainy days in the 40's, which I'm sure will be on tap for April and May.

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14 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

we saw that same consistency back in Feb. and we all know how that ended.  but now that we are heading into spring and most everybody, even some of us snow weenies are ready for this winter to end there's absolutely no doubt in my mind the pattern will flip to a wintry one and probably will have staying power right through April and into May.  i ok either way.  what I don't want is windy rainy days in the 40's, which I'm sure will be on tap for April and May.

Shut the blinds this Saturday.  LOL. 

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We continue our wet year as over the last 2 days rain totals ranged from a low of 0.68" at Glenmoore to as much as 1.00" in West Chester. We can a break with some sun and continued mild both today and tomorrow before rain arrives again Saturday. By Sunday morning we could see close to another inch of rain.
County wide records for today: High 75 Coatesville (1921) / Low 4 below West Chester (2015) / Rain 2.70" West Grove (1967) / Snow 13.0" West Grove (1962)
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Can't wait for the people in Adams County posting about drought conditions this May when we finished 2023 at +10" on rainfall vs average and already have over 12" YTD since Jan 1 up here. the entire NE is under water for the past 18 months. That 12" was probably modeled as snow on the GFS at one point! Should be over 120" in snow for the year! :snowing:

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1 minute ago, Summit Snow said:

Can't wait for the people in Adams County posting about drought conditions this May when we finished 2023 at +10" on rainfall vs average and already have over 12" YTD since Jan 1 up here. the entire NE is under water for the past 18 months. That 12" was probably modeled as snow on the GFS at one point! Should be over 120" in snow for the year! :snowing:

No early drought down here.   It is quite wet at least topsoil wise.   Lakes and streams are not fully recovered yet though. 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Frankly, I’d be surprised if we don’t at least have the chance to track a Winter storm chance for some places near our region with the advertised look on the 3 main ensembles for period of the 18th to the 23rd.

These are the 5 day ensemble means for the pattern….very consistent.

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Temps remain the problem unfortunately. These are average surface temps for same periods. 850 temps are BN but not cold enough imho. Flukes can always happen, but we're at a point of needing a miraculous fluke.

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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Codorus is much improved from the fall.

Yea, all is improved just not back to normal yet.  That little pond you see coming into Rou Ville is only at 75% or so.   But grass should take off pretty good for Spring.  It is greening a bit here but no growing yet.   Mower is parked until April I think. 

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32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, all is improved just not back to normal yet.  That little pond you see coming into Rou Ville is only at 75% or so.   But grass should take off pretty good for Spring.  It is greening a bit here but no growing yet.   Mower is parked until April I think. 

You may recall how I feel about mowing. :axe:

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You may recall how I feel about mowing. :axe:

 

4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

if i mow yours, as well as mine, does that count for the mowing Championship?

I knew he did not like mowing, but he seems competitive so thought he may change his colors a bit this spring. 

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

if i mow yours, as well as mine, does that count for the mowing Championship?

MAG started this "I'm mowing for others" campaign, and I'll just say this right here, right now...mowing other people's yards is truly an incredibly kind and wonderful gesture. It really is. My hat tip goes to people who serve others like that. The world needs a lot more of those kind of people. So if I must concede the trophy this year for that type of service...easiest decision I've ever made. 

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