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Central PA Winter 23/24


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24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Nice Feb 27th summer night. Fair amount of lightning and thunder (elevated instability) accompanying the wave of precip crossing central PA. Temp here is “only” 48ºF. 

Window are open and fans are on here. A very muggy 55 at 11:30. 

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5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, please….

A better look by March 12th this run.

 

The problem I continue to see is temps. Here’s the temp departures to go with that timeframe.

image.thumb.png.48643208339316f71299ff0d70df0b3c.png

I just don’t think we have enough cold air involved in the overall pattern to make the undercutting storm track/below avg 500 heights with anomalously low heights also remaining out west thing work if it were to come to fruition in that fashion. Certainly now since we’ll be approaching mid-March here. Near normal to slightly + temp anomalies at our latitude isn’t going to cut it and would make a scenario to score a winter storm much more difficult. We need to build western ridging (PNA realm), at least temporarily or something to set up an alignment that might draw down enough cold to work with for late season mischief. The latest Euro weeklies try to do that from around St Patty’s day onward with a rapid reversal to ridging up the Pacific coast toward Alaska, resulting in a much better source region and associated cold anomalies that it puts on a large part of the CONUS (week 3 and esp week 4). GEFS extended is also a similar evolution and timeframe (a bit less robust with the cold). I personally think the GEFS extended has done a better job this winter (esp in temps) so seeing some agreement there is probably not a bad thing. Latest MJO evolution is a bit interesting, with forecasts looking to show a pretty strong pulse starting in phase 2/3 and making a run around the ring. Extended ensembles take it around to phases 6 and 7, which are the strongest correlated phases to warmth in the east during FMA.. so that’s a bit a of a discrepancy to work thru. That may make a potential window later in the month to score something much smaller, or the MJO forecasts could continue to evolve differently as well. I’ll be curious to see how things are when we get that period beyond the 15th or so solidly into the regular ensemble range. 

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7 hours ago, canderson said:

WOAH! Lightning and deep, deep thunder. Nice cell to the west - looks like it’s hitting @Blizzard of 93 but it’s going to miss the city entirely. 

 

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Indeed, thunderstorm is underway in Marysville now.

 

8 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

set me straight up out of bed

If there was any of that around here, I slept through it. And I'm a light sleeper so I'm saying no storm. Congrats for getting on the board! 

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With February 29th approaching, here's some (somewhat) interesting facts:

A Leap Day is technically called "Intercalary Day".

A true solar year is 365.2422 solar days.  So it isn't exactly 1 day every 4 years different.  So to keep things in synch, every fourth year, meaning every year whose number is evenly divisible by 4, is a leap year and is granted an extra day—that is, except for every 100 years, when we skip the leap day, except for every 400 years, when we reverse the rule and add a leap day once again. So the years 1700, 1800 and 1900 were not leap years. The year 2000 was because even though it’s divisible evenly by 100, it’s also evenly divisible by 400. The year 2100 will not be a leap year, but the year 2400 will be, and so on.

You will truly be the life of the party when you break this one out.

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1 minute ago, Festus said:

With February 29th approaching, here's some (somewhat) interesting facts:

A Leap Day is technically called "Intercalary Day".

A true solar year is 365.2422 solar days.  So it isn't exactly 1 day every 4 years different.  So to keep things in synch, every fourth year, meaning every year whose number is evenly divisible by 4, is a leap year and is granted an extra day—that is, except for every 100 years, when we skip the leap day, except for every 400 years, when we reverse the rule and add a leap day once again. So the years 1700, 1800 and 1900 were not leap years. The year 2000 was because even though it’s divisible evenly by 100, it’s also evenly divisible by 400. The year 2100 will not be a leap year, but the year 2400 will be, and so on.

You will truly be the life of the party when you break this one out.

That...is truly great stuff right there. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

If there was any of that around here, I slept through it. And I'm a light sleeper so I'm saying no storm. Congrats for getting on the board! 

Can confirm nothing of note down this way. 

 

5 minutes ago, Festus said:

With February 29th approaching, here's some (somewhat) interesting facts:

A Leap Day is technically called "Intercalary Day".

A true solar year is 365.2422 solar days.  So it isn't exactly 1 day every 4 years different.  So to keep things in synch, every fourth year, meaning every year whose number is evenly divisible by 4, is a leap year and is granted an extra day—that is, except for every 100 years, when we skip the leap day, except for every 400 years, when we reverse the rule and add a leap day once again. So the years 1700, 1800 and 1900 were not leap years. The year 2000 was because even though it’s divisible evenly by 100, it’s also evenly divisible by 400. The year 2100 will not be a leap year, but the year 2400 will be, and so on.

You will truly be the life of the party when you break this one out.

Sadly, I have spent way too much time looking into this topic in the past. That will probably shock no one ha. 

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20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, thanks? I’d much rather be scoring snow in late February…but no such luck!

We are pretty much right in the middle of the advertised epic pattern that was showing several weeks ago. The severe weather reports from the past 24 hours have been just that. 

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The Radar is crazy this morning. Downpours for 2-3 minutes then nothing.

Picked up .85” of rain overnight.

Thunderstorm that come through in the night. Heavy lightening in the neighborhood.

Usually you look to see how close the strikes are. And usually they are a couple miles away.

It read last night .01 of mile away, take cover. 

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