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Central PA Winter 23/24


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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I feel like a real life meeting of all mid Atlantic posters would result in a mass casualty event

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You would think but past experiences suggest internet bullies back down when faced with blood and legal issues.    The quiet ones are more worrisome!  Ha. 

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16 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I see this for tomorrow. 

 

Cloud cover and associated lack of CAPE generation tomorrow would figure to be an inhibitor in severe around here with a couple waves of rain (maybe some thunder)  progged to traverse PA during the day. 3k NAM seems a little more suggestive of getting some CAPE into NW PA prior to frontal passage there in the early afternoon. Helicity/shear is moderate-strong, so the combo could suggest some imbedded rotating elements to any line or bow segment that develops there. Think for our area the biggest potential will be with the FROPA, which could bring some damaging winds to the surface if we have a fairly well developed line that comes across. Both HRRR and 3k are generating little CAPE from the eastern 2/3s of PA. 

Nothing like the Midwest today, which is solidly in the warm sector and daytime heating. Pretty wild to see 1500-2500 CAPEs generated in northern ILL/IN and all the way up into the lower Peninsula of Michigan with widespread temps in the 70s in those areas. 

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Cloud cover and associated lack of CAPE generation tomorrow would figure to be an inhibitor in severe around here with a couple waves of rain (maybe some thunder)  progged to traverse PA during the day. 3k NAM seems a little more suggestive of getting some CAPE into NW PA prior to frontal passage there in the early afternoon. Helicity/shear is moderate-strong, so the combo could suggest some imbedded rotating elements to any line or bow segment that develops there. Think for our area the biggest potential will be with the FROPA, which could bring some damaging winds to the surface if we have a fairly well developed line that comes across. Both HRRR and 3k are generating little CAPE from the eastern 2/3s of PA. 
Nothing like the Midwest today, which is solidly in the warm sector and daytime heating. Pretty wild to see 1500-2500 CAPEs generated in northern ILL/IN and all the way up into the lower Peninsula of Michigan with widespread temps in the 70s in those areas. 
There is a dryline in Missouri. How often do you ever see that.

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That's 0.05" more than I have.
The two themes I had for last summer was the amazing ability to underperform nearly every forecast for rain for months on end while simultaneously underperforming the forecast for sun. The amount of days we were cloudy nearly all day but finished with
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Who had February midnight tornadoes in Cincinnati on their bingo card? 
I hope some poor asshole in Chillicothe gets smoked by flying Skyline Chili and ends up at the Ohio State game in the sky.

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How much of Texas burns before Greg Abbott gets up out of his chair to pour a bucket on the fire?

"I've seen a lot of spinals, dude. This guy fuckin walks. I've never been more certain of anything in my life."

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