Bubbler86 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't remember him mocking anyone. I do remember him saying that: The Blizz storm was going to be a nothingburger There would be 1 or 2 opportunities for snow between 2/15 and 3/5. We had 2 snowfalls but his first date was a little too tardy. He said something along the lines of the snow maps people are reading are going to change for the negative (for his area.) and to stop reading them. I do not have the full quote in front of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Good. Every single outlet last year had Baltimore finishing last or next to last. They got zero respect for their 33 game improvement from 2021 to 2022. I don't think they'll win over 100 games this year but I love the disrespect all the same. The 2023-24 Philadelphia Flyers are the 2022 Baltimore Orioles on skates. The comparison is uncanny in a lot of ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Bubbler86 said: He said something along the lines of the snow maps people are reading are going to change for the negative (for his area.) and to stop reading them. I do not have the full quote in front of me. That's a true statement, but I thought (I could be wrong) that it was a general statement and not for that storm...again, you might be right on that part as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: That's a true statement, but I thought (I could be wrong) that it was a general statement and not for that storm...again, you might be right on that part as well. I took it as that storm and it was not personal, it just seemed quite confident and then it did not work out so that was why I said he took a ding. Very LOUD thunder here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I just came in and this was the first post that I see - I was just watching a video that Elliott put up online this afternoon. Holy crap is he on the spring train. It's like a foregone conclusion to him it seems. Might get very interesting if something goes awry... That said - and I've said this repeatedly. I want more snow. It's still February 22nd. It's not mid April. But, if it's not going to snow like legit snow...meh, let's move on. I've transitioned to spring clothing now (short sleeves and shorts) from my winter clothing (short sleeves and shorts) so it might as well warm up if there's no wintry precip to be had. I think he’ll look pretty good on that conclusion thru about the first week or so of March. Beyond that is still to be determined. Some reversal in the PNA/EPO/NAO/AO are noted in the longer term with the NAO/AO being shown to neutralize and go back negative by the end of the range of regular ensemble guidance. The Pac related stuff (EPO/PNA) is further out. Euro weeklies are more bullish than the GEFS extended dumping the EPO by mid month. MJO forecasts are mainly into 4 and maybe a bit of 5 (noticed the GEFS was into 3 today). FMA Phase 4 and 5 is not the blowtorch it is during DJF or JFM and 3 is a cold phase in March. So I don’t think the MJO is really a slam dunk using it to declare spring fully sprung before mid-March. Otherwise, this might be an understatement but I haven’t been particularly impressed with the Euro Weeklies performance this winter. The GEFS extended has been demonstrably better with temps at longer range (Euro weeklies have been too cold). I can see why Elliot’s all in on spring just going on how the rest of the winter has gone. We typically pay dearly at some point when we have a mostly warm late winter though. Whether or not that happens in time for it to matter ( for viable snow opportunities) is the main question I’m focused on when approaching later next month. Speaking of forecasts, here are the numbers I decided on for March with WB’s forecast competition. . I originally was leaning colder in the east but the first part of the month just looks too warm. I think unless we have a truly massive second half reversal in temps we’ll be struggling to get the numbers back down to average even with a second half cooldown that’s enough to generate a couple snow chances. That’s how I approached February and I actually picked small + departures in the east anticipating the second half of the month to eventually turn cold but it just never did get cold this month and the + departures all over the US have just run away like they did in December. I picked +5 in Minneapolis which is not a small departure and they’re still at +14ºF for Feb. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I took it as that storm and it was not personal, it just seemed quite confident and then it did not work out so that was why I said he took a ding. Very LOUD thunder here right now. I said last winter that I was going to stop posting his thoughts - I was encouraged by many to continue to do so. I think I really should stop because: If people want to read his thoughts, they can find it When I do post, it seems to stir emotions in a non-positive way That's a general comment and not pointed at you. I've seen plenty of people respond in ways that make me feel guilty for posting. It's out there for anyone to see as they please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I said last winter that I was going to stop posting his thoughts - I was encouraged by many to continue to do so. I think I really should stop because: If people want to read his thoughts, they can find it When I do post, it seems to stir emotions in a non-positive way That's a general comment and not pointed at you. I've seen plenty of people respond in ways that make me feel guilty for posting. It's out there for anyone to see as they please. That was not at all why I said that. I was just defending my opinion as to why I said he took a ding. It was not that he was late with the snow forecast, almost everyone was, it was that he basically said there was no chance it was going to snow from that system a few days before. I love reading his thoughts but always cringe when I hear anyone leave no room for their thoughts being wrong. Sorry to offend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I think he’ll look pretty good on that conclusion thru about the first week or so of March. Beyond that is still to be determined. Some reversal in the PNA/EPO/NAO/AO are noted in the longer term with the NAO/AO being shown to neutralize and go back negative by the end of the range of regular ensemble guidance. The Pac related stuff (EPO/PNA) is further out. Euro weeklies are more bullish than the GEFS extended dumping the EPO by mid month. MJO forecasts are mainly into 4 and maybe a bit of 5 (noticed the GEFS was into 3 today). FMA Phase 4 and 5 is not the blowtorch it is during DJF or JFM and 3 is a cold phase in March. So I don’t think the MJO is really a slam dunk using it to declare spring fully sprung before mid-March. Otherwise, this might be an understatement but I haven’t been particularly impressed with the Euro Weeklies performance this winter. The GEFS extended has been demonstrably better with temps at longer range (Euro weeklies have been too cold). I can see why Elliot’s all in on spring just going on how the rest of the winter has gone. We typically pay dearly at some point when we have a mostly warm late winter though. Whether or not that happens in time for it to matter ( for viable snow opportunities) is the main question I’m focused on when approaching later next month. Speaking of forecasts, here are the numbers I decided on for March with WB’s forecast competition. . I originally was leaning colder in the east but the first part of the month just looks too warm. I think unless we have a truly massive second half reversal in temps we’ll be struggling to get the numbers back down to average even with a second half cooldown that’s enough to generate a couple snow chances. That’s how I approached February and I actually picked small + departures in the east anticipating the second half of the month to eventually turn cold but it just never did get cold this month and the + departures all over the US have just run away like they did in December. I picked +5 in Minneapolis which is not a small departure and they’re still at +14ºF for Feb. Minneapolis might be the story of this winter...of all the locations that have suffered with little wintry weather, they are off the charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That was not at all why I said that. I was just defending my opinion as to why I said he took a ding. It was not that he was late with the snow forecast, almost everyone was, it was that he basically said there was no chance it was going to snow from that system a few days before. I love reading his thoughts but always cringe when I hear anyone leave no room for their thoughts being wrong. Sorry to offend. No, you're absolutely right. Elitist attitudes are off-putting at best and lead to a lot of pain and embarrassment as well. Weather is a science and it will humble the best of the best. No one has earned the right to permanently close doors in February and say definitively...well, anything beyond generalizations. Sort of like what @MAG5035 did above. Caution is prudent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 @Bubbler86 - definitely looks like it could be a middle of the summer radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 - definitely looks like it could be a middle of the summer radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad The lightning was quite bright for a few flashes. I hope atmospheric memory kicks in for the next 6 months and someone else can play the drought card this coming summer. I want the yard to have a good year for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 - definitely looks like it could be a middle of the summer radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad PSU reporting he saw snow with the heavier returns. That is impressive with the temps below 700. I doubted it today but stand corrected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: PSU reporting he saw snow with the heavier returns. That is impressive with the temps below 700. I doubted it today but stand corrected. A lot of hail reports...a lot of very intense cloud to ground lightning...all with temps in the 30s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: A lot of hail reports...a lot of very intense cloud to ground lightning...all with temps in the 30s... Yea, it is a raw one out. We are still at 34. Shade snow survived the downpour and appears primed to make it to Friday despite the rain tonight. If it makes it to dark tomorrow, it is going through to Monday at least and some Mesos have widely scattered snow showers Sat AM for the LSV so maybe a refresh. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Minneapolis might be the story of this winter...of all the locations that have suffered with little wintry weather, they are off the charts. Syracuse is downright depressing as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Syracuse is downright depressing as well.Watch em get a 40" AprilSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Can I say a day of solid rain in February is incredibly infuriating? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 It has basically stayed 34 now for over 12 hours. Way below average for high and way above average for low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Driving in the rain last night, I was disappointed that it was February 22, and it was raining. As much as I want warm temperatures and endless sunshine right now, rain in February is cruel. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 For once we are in a good holeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: For once we are in a good hole Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk A large percentage of the forum is red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 A large percentage of the forum is red. Orange, better than red. And good is very relative hereSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: A large percentage of the forum is red. I see a large part in very light orange or very light yellow…. MDT is not far from normal snow to date…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Just now, Jns2183 said: Orange, better than red. And good is very relative here Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I meant Orange, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I see a large part in very light orange or very light yellow…. MDT is not far from normal snow to date…. MDT will end almost exactly in the middle for the 2000's and Met winter. (This is Dec-Feb only) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: MDT will end almost exactly in the middle for the 2000's and Met winter. (This is Dec-Feb only) Yes, we have had better & worse for sure. If MDT can get the 6 inches or so of snow that it averages in March, the seasonal total would end up near 25, which is roughly the median annual snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, we have had better & worse for sure. If MDT can get the 6 inches or so of snow that it averages in March, the seasonal total would end up near 25, which is roughly the median annual snow. I am the boat that the blinds are not shut. I just wanted to point out that a large part of the forum is still BN snow for this season or met winter, whichever you look at. That chart above along with the one below are why I could not grade the winter anything above C- at this point and if something like MU is calling for comes to fruition then my personal grade is going down to D-. By the time Feb ends, MDT will either have the 3rd, 4th or 5th hottest met winter in history of record keeping. Not sure they can catch #2. So average or below average snow and one of the hottest winters ever. If March comes back with a lot of snow, then I can reassess! Just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 .24” of rain and a low of 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Nam has a heavier burst of snow for Lanco tomorrow AM. 3K further South in DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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