TimB Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: This apparently needs posted again. The Pittsburgh crew must not have seen it… Wouldn’t the week 3-4 outlook reflect that, given that you’ve been advertising this pattern change for days, so it’s not like the CPC hasn’t caught up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, TimB said: Wouldn’t the week 3-4 outlook reflect that, given that you’ve been advertising this pattern change for days, so it’s not like the CPC hasn’t caught up? Go & read the good posters in the New England & Mid Atlantic thread. They are very much on board. Many pro Forecasters are on board as well. The good stuff is coming…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Go & read the good posters in the New England & Mid Atlantic thread. They are very much on board. Many pro Forecasters are on board as well. The good stuff is coming…. The people at the CPC are (checks notes) pro forecasters, and they’re calling for very solid chances at above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and week 3-4 outlooks. Not saying you can’t get snow in that pattern because you can, but I think above normal temperatures well past the new year are a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, TimB said: The people at the CPC are (checks notes) pro forecasters, and they’re calling for very solid chances at above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and week 3-4 outlooks. Not saying you can’t get snow in that pattern because you can, but I think above normal temperatures well past the new year are a good bet. I’m not dismissing CPC, but I don’t care if we are 1 degree above normal as long as I am shoveling a few decent snowstorms in my town. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m not dismissing CPC, but I don’t care if we are 1 degree above normal as long as I am shoveling a few decent snowstorms in my town. Believe me I’m hoping for the same. But that CPC outlook felt like a punch to the groin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, TimB said: Believe me I’m hoping for the same. But that CPC outlook felt like a punch to the groin. The ensembles all look great for late December. I fully expect to be shoveling snow in the coming weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 I did read the text of said outlook and it does seem to provide some hope for week 4 and beyond with respect to the teleconnections, MJO, and possible SSW events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 hours ago, TimB said: Not exactly inspiring. I’ve never seen this much of this deep red on the week 3-4 outlook. this outlook accuracy has to be called into question. how often does this so called 3-4 week modeling actually pan out. I remember the last 2 years kept hearing cold is coming below average and precip above average. the precip was always about average and the cold just kept getting pushed back then to never actually happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Let's just not engage CC or his alter ego TimB. They are not happy souls. Has either ever posted anything positive for cold and/or snow? Of course not, and it's intentional. The whole purpose is to bring everyone down their dark, depressing hole. Best to leave them in their corner alone because they are not here to sincerely discuss weather and there's nothing anyone on this Board can do to cure them. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 37 this Am in the Pocono's. 41 at Rouz. Some of these posts meant to depress are just as likely meant to stir. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Some globals suggested a sharp cut off in the beneficial rains tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The end of the Op 6z GFS was getting ready to say Happy New Year with the improved pattern settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 One last nice day before our Nor'easter impacts the area tomorrow PM. Most models show between 2" to 3" of rain across the area, winds will also increase with gusts as high as 35 mph possible before the rain tapers off around noon on Monday. There could be some snow showers Monday night into Tuesday then a seasonably chilly but dry week ahead. Records for today: High 67 (1971) / -1 (1917) our earliest below zero reading on record / Rain 1.80" (1902) / Snow 7.3" (2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 There is still good general agreement between the 3 major global 0z ensemble runs for the end of the month pattern evolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The 0z EPS also has cold enough air in place for this region by New Year’s Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: Let's just not engage CC or his alter ego TimB. They are not happy souls. Has either ever posted anything positive for cold and/or snow? Of course not, and it's intentional. The whole purpose is to bring everyone down their dark, depressing hole. Best to leave them in their corner alone because they are not here to sincerely discuss weather and there's nothing anyone on this Board can do to cure them. Agree 100% TimB climate change and dream traveler they don’t have anything to do but jack our forum up all are useless to society 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Someone wanna drop off a boat for us at Dulles tomorrow? kthnx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Someone wanna drop off a boat for us at Dulles tomorrow? kthnx @sauss06 will come to your rescue! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Good news on the MJO per @Weather Will “MJO progression supports colder temps as we enter 2024.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Someone wanna drop off a boat for us at Dulles tomorrow? kthnx Will this do? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Good news on the MJO per @Weather Will “MJO progression supports colder temps as we enter 2024.” Fyi, you can get all MJO progs at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, mitchnick said: Fyi, you can get all MJO progs at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Thanks and Dacula weather has a good daily MJO chart page as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fyi, you can get all MJO progs at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml If the mjo going into strong phase 8 and 1 doesn't produce snow this year..then that's it for this year..I'm serious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, WX-PA said: If the mjo going into strong phase 8 and 1 doesn't produce snow this year..then that's it for this year..I'm serious! It looks like it slows down its progression once into 8 & 1, which hopefully allows the pattern to stick around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 58 minutes ago, paweather said: Agree 100% TimB climate change and dream traveler they don’t have anything to do but jack our forum up all are useless to society So by extension, the CPC is useless to society (but only when it shows bad news)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: Agree 100% TimB climate change and dream traveler they don’t have anything to do but jack our forum up all are useless to society Useless to society isn't fair or accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The 12z RGEM gets light snow showers to the Susquehanna Valley on Tuesday with the better chance the further north & west in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Useless to society isn't fair or accurate. Just a tad overboard, agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The 12z GFS has that sneaky wave a few days before Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: Someone wanna drop off a boat for us at Dulles tomorrow? kthnx Kayak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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