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Central PA Winter 23/24


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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

We might need a two week breather till winters last hurrah

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

MDT is only 7 inches away from its seasonal median snow total of 25 inches.

MDT would need 12 more inches to reach climo seasonal total of 30 inches.

Both are within striking distance with 6 realistic weeks to score.

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Chilliest morning since January 20th across most of Chester County this AM. With the solid snow cover across most of the County lows were in the teens in most areas (see attached). A little below normal temperatures for today through mid-week then some warming before our next chance of rain by Thursday night.
Records for today: High 72 Phoenixville (2011) / Low Phoenixville 11 below (1979) / Precipitation 1.59" KMQS Airport (2008) / Snow 10" Coatesville (1979)
image.png.1197748866da42bf23e2338f50a91108.png
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The 1 wild card out there is that there is a SSW occurring in a few days per attached graph. You can see how the mean 10mb zonal winds represented by the solid blue line dip below the thin gray line. That alone would be throwing a curve ball to modeling, but after a brief, weak recovery, the Eps take the mean winds back below the gray line from about 3/5 until 3/25. That's crazy. Since this is a mean ensemble forecast, the operationals likely don't have it figured into what they are spitting out every 6 or 12 hours. 

All that said, if course, it doesn't guarantee things like the cold end up on our side of the Pole or that the Pacific side cooperates. But it might explain some wild swings in modeling as well as bouts of cold and snow to come...maybe?

ps2png-worker-commands-56fdc4b895-59knb-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-KJ7i7l.png

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The 1 wild card out there is that there is a SSW occurring in a few days per attached graph. You can see how the mean 10mb zonal winds represented by the solid blue line dip below the thin gray line. That alone would be throwing a curve ball to modeling, but after a brief, weak recovery, the Eps take the mean winds back below the gray line from about 3/5 until 3/25. That's crazy. Since this is a mean ensemble forecast, the operationals likely don't have it figured into what they are spitting out every 6 or 12 hours. 

All that said, if course, it doesn't guarantee things like the cold end up on our side of the Pole or that the Pacific side cooperates. But it might explain some wild swings in modeling as well as bouts of cold and snow to come...maybe?

ps2png-worker-commands-56fdc4b895-59knb-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-KJ7i7l.png

Also, the SOI 2 week deep crash has ended over the last couple of days. Sometimes the effects of the SOI lag around 2 weeks. It can also throw the models into fits as well.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

On the bright side, your tried and true methodology of forecasting meant that you weren't surprised. :)

 I knew  Sat mornings storm would overperform in our area but to the extent of the meso banding setting up right over my backyard for 4+ hours at 4-5 inches per hour, now that was unexpected 14-15 inches of the fluffiest snow I have seen in many years was a nice surprise- just like getting nearly 15+ inches of rain in December. I guess what to expect in the upcoming months- a severe ice storm,or a severe t- storm with hail/ tornadoes in March is not out of the question at this point. LOL

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