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Central PA Winter 23/24


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Low of 27 here.  Sunday's system is a doozy with another widespread ~2" for the forum, although folks southeast should have the best chance at big totals.  The bulk of the heavy stuff looks to arrive overnight, and then I wouldn't be surprised if many of us see some snow showers drift through on monday night.  Fun little system.  Happy Friday fellas!

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22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the trailing vort on the 6z op and eps along with eps snowfall map it looks like we should see at least snow showers, if not some light snow accumulations, with the vort passage.

Sure hope so.  

If one looks at 2m temps beyond the rainer on the GFS, while the pattern still looks less than ideal....its not horrid either and beyond christmas the temp profile looks rather ninoish and more workable.  

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12z Models so far:

GFS tracks this weekend's storm right over my backyard.

CMC runs it up through Conshohocken. 

ICON tracks it offshore 50-75 miles or so. 

 

Depending on the track, the heaviest rains could conceivably occur anywhere from the Ridge and Valley of PA to S/E of I95. Regardless, it's gonna be wet. 

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7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Flood watches will be going up.


.

For sure. Flash flood guidance is fairly high especially in eastern PA, but this is still likely to cause widespread issues of the urban/small stream variety and some of the medium size waterways cracking flood stage. Looking at headwater guidance in the Sus Valley…Swatara Creek looks especially vulnerable for minor or even moderate flooding as well as the Schuylkill River (for minor) given the widespread agreement on a 2-3+” event of which the heaviest bulk likely comes within a 12hr timeframe. The tributaries of the Juniata (Little Juniata and Frankstown Branch) would be similarly vulnerable to at least minor flood stage if the swath of heaviest rains (2-3”) ended up catching back this way. 

image.thumb.png.0a25ff44838c1f01bb609abc0805c096.png

 

Headwater guidance

.                      1hr     3hr    6hr     12hr   24hr

Quote
: NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA...
:  SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...
:  Tioga River...
MFDP1     2.6/  2.7/  2.9/  3.6/  4.8 :Mansfield (12ft)
:MFDP1md  3.0/  3.2/  3.5/  4.3/  5.8  Mansfield (13)
:MFDP1mj  3.6/  3.8/  4.2/  5.2/  7.2  Mansfield (14)
:  Penns Creek...
PNCP1     2.0/  2.3/  2.6/  2.7/  2.9 :Penns Creek (8ft)
:PNCP1md  2.5/  3.1/  3.4/  3.7/  3.9  Penns Creek (10)
:PNCP1mj  3.4/  4.1/  4.7/  5.1/  5.5  Penns Creek (12)
:  Frankstown Branch Juniata River...
WIBP1     1.6/  1.7/  2.1/  2.3/  2.8 :Williamsburg (12ft)
:WIBP1md  1.8/  2.0/  2.4/  2.6/  3.2  Williamsburg (13)
:WIBP1mj  2.2/  2.4/  3.0/  3.2/  3.9  Williamsburg (15)
:  Little Juniata River...
SPKP1     1.5/  1.7/  2.1/  2.5/  3.0 :Spruce Creek (8ft)
:SPKP1md  2.0/  2.4/  2.9/  3.3/  4.1  Spruce Creek (10)
:SPKP1mj  3.2/  3.7/  4.6/  5.3/  6.9  Spruce Creek (14)
:  Aughwick Creek...
SLYP1     2.2/  2.2/  2.3/  2.4/  2.8 :Shirleysburg (10ft)
:SLYP1md  2.8/  2.9/  3.0/  3.2/  3.7  Shirleysburg (12)
:SLYP1mj  6.5/  7.0/  7.4/  8.0/  8.4  Shirleysburg (20)
:  Sherman Creek...
SMDP1     2.4/  2.6/  2.9/  3.0/  3.6 :Shermans Dale (9ft)
:SMDP1md  3.0/  3.2/  3.6/  3.7/  4.5  Shermans Dale (11)
:SMDP1mj  4.9/  5.5/  6.3/  6.6/  8.4  Shermans Dale (16)
:  Conodoguinet Creek...
HGSP1     2.9/  2.9/  2.9/  2.9/  3.0 :Hogestown (8ft)
:HGSP1md  3.9/  3.9/  3.9/  3.9/  4.2  Hogestown (10)
:HGSP1mj  5.2/  5.2/  5.2/  5.2/  5.6  Hogestown (12)
:  Yellow Breeches Creek...
CPHP1     3.2/  3.3/  3.3/  3.4/  3.7 :Camp Hill (7ft)
:CPHP1md  3.9/  4.0/  4.1/  4.2/  4.6  Camp Hill (9)
:CPHP1mj  6.1/  6.3/  6.4/  6.6/  7.5  Camp Hill (13)
:  Swatara Creek...
HTVP1     1.8/  1.8/  1.9/  2.1/  2.3 :Harper Tavern (9ft)
:HTVP1md  2.6/  2.7/  2.8/  3.0/  3.3  Harper Tavern (12)
:HTVP1mj  3.6/  3.7/  3.9/  4.2/  4.7  Harper Tavern (15)
:  Conestoga River...
LNCP1     2.2/  2.3/  2.4/  2.7/  3.1 :Lancaster (11ft)
:LNCP1md  2.8/  3.0/  3.1/  3.5/  4.0  Lancaster (13)
:LNCP1mj  3.5/  3.7/  3.9/  4.3/  5.0  Lancaster (15)
:  DELAWARE BASIN...
:  Schuylkill River...
LGVP1     1.8/  1.9/  1.9/  2.0/  2.2 :Landingville (8ft)
:LGVP1md  2.6/  2.8/  2.9/  3.2/  3.8  Landingville (12)
:LGVP1mj  3.3/  3.7/  3.9/  4.3/  5.1  Landingville (14)

 

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24 minutes ago, paweather said:

Keep them coming Mitch....Let's make January fun and white for a change. 

January…sure….!

But the last week of December is also full of potential.

Also, we could get a little snow early next week with the trailing system.

We also have the possibility that the Euro showed before Christmas that @mitchnick just posted.

I am looking forward to the possibility of a great January, but December still has plenty to keep an eye on!

 

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20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not overly enthused by little more than a half inch of snowfall modeled over a 10-day period, when the current average single day snowfall is 0.3" and rising.

The Harrisburg area averages around 6 inches of snow through the end of December.

Those maps that @mitchnick posted show around 3 inches of snow near Harrisburg by 12/25.

Many of us near Harrisburg & the lower Susquehanna Valley have had around 1 inch of snow already this month.

My point is we still have a good chance to get on track with average snow by the end of the month.

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The Harrisburg area averages around 6 inches of snow through the end of December.
Those maps that [mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] posted show around 3 inches of snow near Harrisburg by 12/25.
Many of us near Harrisburg & the lower Susquehanna Valley have had around 1 inch of snow already this month.
My point is we still have a good chance to get on track with average snow by the end of the month.

I’ve had an 1.5” surpassing last years total.


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