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Central PA Winter 23/24


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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s fine but the people here have the right to know the truth. They can go read the other thread and see for themselves that you’re lying. 

Here is the actual exchange, then you don’t have to stand by anything, everyone can see for themselves.  

 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

On a majority of guidance, there has been a North trend the last 6-12 hours pushing the better forcing and banding from the southern areas of the LSV up to Harrisburg and above.  That has been a big topic of discussion.  Agreed, the models drying out even further the last 3-4 hours should not change forecasts this late.  Let the chips fall as they may.

Oh I had that duel banding structure in my forecast. I buy that. It’s the general drying at the last minute in less sure of. There will be winners and losers based on meso scale banding though. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Here is the actual exchange, then you don’t have to stand by anything, everyone can see for themselves.  

 

You constantly say nasty shit to him and you know full well history. He is respectful with his posts and you are not. PERIOD!

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh I had that duel banding structure in my forecast. I buy that. It’s the general drying at the last minute in less sure of. There will be winners and losers based on meso scale banding though. 

Yea.  Just a little angst from some of us that have seen that banding push north on modeling since this am.  I personally still think a lot of the lsv sees 2-5".  The hrrr seems too dry for the radar presentation as is. I feel warning criteria may not be met by a lot outside those prospective bands.

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Mesoscale Discussion 149
< Previous MD
MD 149 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 170333Z - 170730Z

   SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to
   spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east
   from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on
   recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow
   bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in
   visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall
   accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region.
   Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching
   shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within
   the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far,
   is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast
   over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts
   reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour
   across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east
   as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this
   depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering
   warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and
   noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and
   into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term.
   However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent
   mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate
   low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall
   in the coming hours.

 

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The snow began here in Carlisle around 10:00pm or so.  By 10:45 only grass and mulch had accumulated (and my board).  All sidewalks and my street were just wet.  The temperature was 35 degrees when the snow started.  It did not start as rain.  However, this first little batch was just as wet as Mon/Tue.  There was a brief steadier period between 10:45 and 11:00.  At 11:00 the new snow and storm total for this event had accumulated 0.3".  The snow also stuck to the shrubs and trees.  By 11:15 the intensity let up to just flurries.  The temp has just dropped to 32.0 in the last 10 minutes.  The lowest the temp dropped to Tuesday morning was 32.2 F.

I'll be back shortly with my midnight readings.  If this storm manages to reach 5.0" or above, it will be the third event of this season with 5"+.

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some one explain this too me earlier I had rain and snow a bit heavier then light. temp was 38 and dp 22 now I have a heavier band over me temp is 34dp 27 and its dry? nothing is falling. how can I have a bigger gap between temp dp hour or so ago and have precip. but now they are closer together but yet its dry

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5 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:


I guess we lucked out with that initial band extending from west of the river over this way. Already 2” on the deck here52595de649e0cc891ecec5db64e14b87.jpg


.

Well I guess that band somehow skipped over me on its way to you.  At midnight I only had recorded 0.3".  The rates were ramping back up again slowly so we'll see what falls during this next hour.  Congrats.  You're only 1" away from verifying the 3" minimum for the WSW.  (I'm being a little facetious).

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At midnight, here in Carlisle the temperature was 31.8 degrees with a dew point of 30.6 degrees and  a wet bulb of 31.3.  As of midnight the snowfall had not accumulated any further from the 11:00 obs.  So, for the date, yesterday, 2/16 I recorded a total of 0.3".  This was also the storm total thus far.  My melted snow produced 0.02" of water.  I'm not calculating an SLR because the melted snow was less than 1 inch.  Just before midnight the intensity was beginning to ramp up again with larger flakes, but still only light snow.  More at 1:00am.

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Well I dunno where exactly in Harrisburg everyone there lives but it seems like it’s snowing everywhere in/around town there now looking at 511 cams. The 700mb FGEN band is setup overhead as well. This should pile up pretty fast. 

image.thumb.png.a0f19a7a960877b3424e2c77385beda0.png

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Well I dunno where exactly in Harrisburg everyone there lives but it seems like it’s snowing everywhere in/around town there now looking at 511 cams. The 700mb FGEN band is setup overhead as well. This should pile up pretty fast. 
image.thumb.png.a0f19a7a960877b3424e2c77385beda0.png

It’s delivering the goods about 5 miles NE of Harrisburg.. we just got a special weather statement indicating up to 3”/hour in spots.. I’ve picked up an additional 1.5 since midnight.

e50ddd1287e2bb0374cf928c40e62557.jpg


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