Bubbler86 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Chris78 said: I don't think I had any rain prior to the flurries starting in the last 15 minutes. Deck was dry It was 38 when the light rain started here...rain did its deed and got us to snow but no accums at 34 as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s fine but the people here have the right to know the truth. They can go read the other thread and see for themselves that you’re lying. Here is the actual exchange, then you don’t have to stand by anything, everyone can see for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On a majority of guidance, there has been a North trend the last 6-12 hours pushing the better forcing and banding from the southern areas of the LSV up to Harrisburg and above. That has been a big topic of discussion. Agreed, the models drying out even further the last 3-4 hours should not change forecasts this late. Let the chips fall as they may. Oh I had that duel banding structure in my forecast. I buy that. It’s the general drying at the last minute in less sure of. There will be winners and losers based on meso scale banding though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: Here is the actual exchange, then you don’t have to stand by anything, everyone can see for themselves. You constantly say nasty shit to him and you know full well history. He is respectful with his posts and you are not. PERIOD! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Steady snow in Marysville. Current temperature 32 Grass, trees & car tops covered & working on the first inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11:25pm and absolutely nothing is happening here - cloudy and back up to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh I had that duel banding structure in my forecast. I buy that. It’s the general drying at the last minute in less sure of. There will be winners and losers based on meso scale banding though. Yea. Just a little angst from some of us that have seen that banding push north on modeling since this am. I personally still think a lot of the lsv sees 2-5". The hrrr seems too dry for the radar presentation as is. I feel warning criteria may not be met by a lot outside those prospective bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 11:25pm and absolutely nothing is happening here - cloudy and back up to 37. Opened my mouth too soon. Lull here at airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Mesoscale Discussion 149 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Nothing burger so far we had sine wet snow rain over an hour ago just had dog outside. Nothing cloudy sky's no way it's ti dry out temp 34 dp 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 11:25pm and absolutely nothing is happening here - cloudy and back up to 37. There was a meso's discussion posted on the MA thread suggesting a longer period of full saturation for some areas at the start. Edit-now it is posted here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Opened my mouth too soon. Lull here at airport. I had 5 minutes of flurries an hour ago. That's been it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just got home here, was out for the evening. Nice event ongoing with 3.5” down and a nice moderately heavy rate currently. 29/28ºF 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There was a meso's discussion posted on the MA thread suggesting a longer period of full saturation for some areas at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I had 5 minutes of flurries an hour ago. That's been it. Steadier stuff should be working into York/Lancaster here pretty directly by the looks of LWX radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The snow began here in Carlisle around 10:00pm or so. By 10:45 only grass and mulch had accumulated (and my board). All sidewalks and my street were just wet. The temperature was 35 degrees when the snow started. It did not start as rain. However, this first little batch was just as wet as Mon/Tue. There was a brief steadier period between 10:45 and 11:00. At 11:00 the new snow and storm total for this event had accumulated 0.3". The snow also stuck to the shrubs and trees. By 11:15 the intensity let up to just flurries. The temp has just dropped to 32.0 in the last 10 minutes. The lowest the temp dropped to Tuesday morning was 32.2 F. I'll be back shortly with my midnight readings. If this storm manages to reach 5.0" or above, it will be the third event of this season with 5"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 some one explain this too me earlier I had rain and snow a bit heavier then light. temp was 38 and dp 22 now I have a heavier band over me temp is 34dp 27 and its dry? nothing is falling. how can I have a bigger gap between temp dp hour or so ago and have precip. but now they are closer together but yet its dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Snow is picking up in rate & flake size. Treated roads are starting to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Snow is picking up in rate & flake size. Treated roads are starting to cave.I guess we lucked out with that initial band extending from west of the river over this way. Already 2” on the deck here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Steadier stuff should be working into York/Lancaster here pretty directly by the looks of LWX radar. It’s here now. Finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: I guess we lucked out with that initial band extending from west of the river over this way. Already 2” on the deck here . Similar scene here as well. Roads caved in Marysville. Eyeballing roughly 2 inches of fluffy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: I guess we lucked out with that initial band extending from west of the river over this way. Already 2” on the deck here . Well I guess that band somehow skipped over me on its way to you. At midnight I only had recorded 0.3". The rates were ramping back up again slowly so we'll see what falls during this next hour. Congrats. You're only 1" away from verifying the 3" minimum for the WSW. (I'm being a little facetious). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Flakes have broken out here in the tri-lanc/berks/chester county line! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 At midnight, here in Carlisle the temperature was 31.8 degrees with a dew point of 30.6 degrees and a wet bulb of 31.3. As of midnight the snowfall had not accumulated any further from the 11:00 obs. So, for the date, yesterday, 2/16 I recorded a total of 0.3". This was also the storm total thus far. My melted snow produced 0.02" of water. I'm not calculating an SLR because the melted snow was less than 1 inch. Just before midnight the intensity was beginning to ramp up again with larger flakes, but still only light snow. More at 1:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Flakes have broken out here in the tri-lanc/berks/chester county line! Light snow here but very little accumulation so far and wet paved areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 still nothing laying on the ground just wet im going to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Cars, roofs and grass covered in white gold.Colder concrete and road surfaces starting to whiten up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Well I dunno where exactly in Harrisburg everyone there lives but it seems like it’s snowing everywhere in/around town there now looking at 511 cams. The 700mb FGEN band is setup overhead as well. This should pile up pretty fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Well I dunno where exactly in Harrisburg everyone there lives but it seems like it’s snowing everywhere in/around town there now looking at 511 cams. The 700mb FGEN band is setup overhead as well. This should pile up pretty fast. It’s delivering the goods about 5 miles NE of Harrisburg.. we just got a special weather statement indicating up to 3”/hour in spots.. I’ve picked up an additional 1.5 since midnight. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just got home here and we have been under that heavy band in Berks County. We probably have about 5 or 6” already. Snowing heavily and fairly large flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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