Central PA Winter 23/24

[Bubbler86]

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Southern juice almost upon us.

[Caveman]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Can I get an Ouch?

 

Dewpoints are low; gonna take some time to saturate the column.  Higher elevation=less time to saturate=greater accumulation.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Caveman said:

Dewpoints are low; gonna take some time to saturate the column.  Higher elevation=less time to saturate=greater accumulation.  

I am looking at this from a WSW 3-6" angle....things have settled backwards a bit today. 

[AccuChris]

Follow the “finger” of snow and that generally will be where the best band will be.  Looks to want to ride right across the Turnpike.  So 5-10 miles either side of the turnpike ultimately may have the greatest snowfall amounts.  We will see

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Follow the “finger” of snow and that generally will be where the best band will be.  Looks to want to ride right across the Turnpike.  So 5-10 miles either side of the turnpike ultimately may have the greatest snowfall amounts.  We will see

That is indeed where modeling has been moving it to over the last 12-18 hours. 

[Bubbler86]

[mitchnick]

Ready to file this in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong, and then there's even more" cabinet.

[Superstorm]

Ready to file this in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong, and then there's even more" cabinet.

Or when that dark blue keeps shifting north.


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[mitchnick]

Bubbler, we might be OK.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KLWX/standard

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kpbz/standard

[Jns2183]

Ready to file this in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong, and then there's even more" cabinet.

There is no way to accurately forecast a 10-15 mile wide band of subsidence

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[Ruin]

Looks moisture starved atm

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Bubbler, we might be OK.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KLWX/standard

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kpbz/standard

I am not throwing in the towel but model wise, we are toast.  Nowcast time.  

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Ruin said:

Looks moisture starved atm

If you ever post that a storm looks primed to hammer us, I am going to run for the hills!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Or when that dark blue keeps shifting north.


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Yeah, I  said to Bubbler we need to hope the MD qpf drifts north. Probably will the way this keeps shifting.

[Bubbler86]

41/22 and thickening clouds.  Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There is no way to accurately forecast a 10-15 mile wide band of subsidence

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I know, but I  enjoy playing the victim. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

41/22 and thickening clouds.  Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. 

I told my wife we may be taking a ride this evening, but it's really hauling butt east.

[CarlislePaWx]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

41/22 and thickening clouds.  Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. 

Your readings are precisely where I am at the moment...40.5 / 22.3 with mostly cloudy skies

[Jns2183]

I know, but I  enjoy playing the victim. 

Ed Russo

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[Blizzard of 93]

Here is a wider view of the 18z GFS for everyone that doesn’t live in the southern tier…

Everything looks right on track for CTP’s call at this time.

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There is no way to accurately forecast a 10-15 mile wide band of subsidence

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Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast.

Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.

[Jns2183]

Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast.
Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.

Pull up those 700mb meso maps

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[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is a wider view of the 18z GFS for everyone that doesn’t live in the southern tier…

Everything looks right on track for CTP’s call at this time.

I posted a Kuch map for all of PA.   

[Jns2183]

Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast.
Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.

700mb
850mb
Just north is key I believe

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[Blizzard of 93]

My dew point is down to 18

[Ruin]

30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If you ever post that a storm looks primed to hammer us, I am going to run for the hills!

Lol 

[Bubbler86]

Latest HRRR

 

 

 

 

 

[Superstorm]

Thundersnow in St. Louis. Where that lift sets up will be pounding.


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[WaynesboroWX]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

41/22 and thickening clouds.  Was thinking I would be seeing snow withing 2 hours so hope that pulls through. 

Howdy, neighbor!

40/22 38% humidity. A lot of dryness to overcome. Plenty of virga overhead right now but that does us no good. I love winter and snow but I'm not feeling it with this one. Yes, maybe 2"-3" but it's looking like higher amounts will be just to our north and south. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but sucking exhaust from those two Maxima's doesn't add up to much.