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Central PA Winter 23/24


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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Top of that area is actually 1400-1500 near Cascade

Yea I could not tell if it is cascade or Sabillas so just picked one.  They both do great.   I can be in Sabillas in less than 10 min but I usually go to Penmar/up toward high rock if I want to see how the snow rich people live. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea I could not tell if it is cascade or Sabillas so just picked one.  They both do great.   I can be in Sabillas in less than 10 min but I usually go to Penmar/up toward high rock if I want to see how the snow rich people live. 

Frederick County to your south just went to a Warning. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Minima in precip now fairly consistently showing up across the southern tier, which looked like the jack for quite a few runs. 

Yep, except for Nam.  And I keep seeing people talking about the M/D line being the hot spot.  A lot of models it is not.    We went from Maxima to Altima.   Would CTP really downgrade you with that GFS jack over your house? 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, except for Nam.  And I keep seeing people talking about the M/D line being the hot spot.  A lot of models it is not.    We went from Maxima to Altima.   Would CTP really downgrade you with that GFS jack over your house? 

All counties bordering us east and south went down to Advisories. Not sure there's enough to say 5" or more is likely. 

Someone in the MA thread made an interesting point - if this was coming at rush hour weekday, the amounts plus timing might push them to opt for warnings. Coming at a relatively lighter impact time travel wise, they may hedge down and stick with the more likely outcome for most. 

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Minima in precip now fairly consistently showing up across the southern tier, which looked like the jack for quite a few runs. 
There seems to be two heavy bands. The one south has much more intense lift but lower ratios. The one on this map up by Harrisburg is less intense but better ratios due to prime snow growth. In between is the subsidence. These two bands have been a feature for awhile. It's all about where they set up

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Only makes sense that Bwi and Hanover are both 5.9". :axe:

I think rumors of Southern PA being the Alps, from people in the MA, sometimes overstate our snow chances up here.  In certain situations, we do better but they do better in other situations.  The whole 'Mount PSU' thing also overstates it.  I would expect us to get more than BWI 3 out of 4 years but not much more 2 of those 3. 

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

There seems to be two heavy bands. The one south has much more intense lift but lower ratios. The one on this map up by Harrisburg is less intense but better ratios due to prime snow growth. In between is the subsidence. These two bands have been a feature for awhile. It's all about where they set up

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Bingo. 

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4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There seems to be two heavy bands. The one south has much more intense lift but lower ratios. The one on this map up by Harrisburg is less intense but better ratios due to prime snow growth. In between is the subsidence. These two bands have been a feature for awhile. It's all about where they set up

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Exactly right...which means the end result is a Marysville jackpot. 

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