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Central PA Winter 23/24


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To be fair, LWX’s watch statement is for most likely outcome of 2-4” with isolated 6” amounts in heavier bands. That’s a bit of a stretch for a region that needs widespread 5” or more to verify a warning, technically. Both ends of the spectrum between CTP and LWX haha. 
I think after Tuesdays debacle they are ready to throw all the models out the window and figure they can get away with waiting till 12-24 hours before this event to issue any headlines just so there is no chance they have to deal with a repeat of Tuesday.

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My comment was based on the quick changing situation last time and a compare to this time.  36 hours before the event, not many models have me getting 5" or more with the last system yet I had a WSW.  Now, there are several models that suggest 5" here and there is nothing from them except a down play of the situation.   They could of course be right but it is not consistent with their actions on the last system.  We are actually down to 24 hours before the event at this point.  

Yea that is true, and they honestly looked really good by the end of Sunday when things shifted south a bit. They upgraded high confidence counties to warnings and kept the watches that reached into the Sus Valley. The big shift south Monday at <24hrs til go time really sent the forecast sideways.  Then they never downgraded the warning they had for here last event either when it was abundantly clear AOO-UNV wasn’t getting 6+. Even JB said just prior to the event they needed to get rid of the warnings  for the State College area haha. They just turned it into a 2-4” winter storm warning, which I’ve never seen before. Then of course the high confidence counties above I-80 that were originally warned didn’t even see any snow in the end. What happened with the Tuesday event was brutal, and I don’t know if there was much to be done with that kind of a shift in guidance. 

I don’t expect anything drastic to happen with this system. Precip shield should have much less of a northern gradient than Tuesday and big thing for our area is determining how much of southern PA to put in advisories IMO. Wagons north seems to be the theme of happy hour so far (need the Euro yet). 

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10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

York and Lancaster only

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Unreal - read the actual Watch. It's for a lot of the southern tier counties but only York and Lancaster are on the map. 3-6" for the southern tier. 

Sorry, the "unreal' statement was directed at CTP and NOT you! :)  

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think we might be in a pretty good spot for this one. Fingers crossed

Same here. Hopefully do better than the 3 inches from last storm.

I just want to use the snow blower a few more times this year. :lol:

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

 

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Quite honestly, the NWS needs to reopen Harrisburg, give them Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry, Snyder, Union, Lebanon, Berks, York, Lancaster, Chester, and Northumberland counties.

State College should take Centre, Mifflin, Juniata, Huntingdon, Cameron, Clinton, Blair, Clearfield, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Elk, Jefferson, and Indiana counties.

Fulton, Franklin, and Adams counties should probably go to Sterling (or put an office in Hagerstown or Frederick).

An NWS should be opened in Erie for the northern tier and everything down to Butler, where Pittsburgh takes over.

State College just has way too large of a CWA.

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