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Central PA Winter 23/24


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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is a tad east of my main house but I will be able to see it from below.   I am more where the w in Hagerstown is on that map. 

Yeah, I  knew the n/s line was the mountain ridge, but figured you were close enough.

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2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Snow has commenced.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Got dark in a hurry down here. Waiting for the precip to reach the ground. At 39 with a 26ºF dewpoint so probably can manage some flakes out of this. 

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Wind advisories up for the entire region. 

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.


 

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The NWS AFD is not all suggesting they are thinking high end with this one. 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fair and seasonable weather with diminishing winds appear
likely Friday, as low amplitude ridging builds over the state.
Focus shifts quickly to Friday night as a light snowfall is
expected over most of central PA. All medium range guidance
indicates a digging upstream trough will approach from the GLAKS
Friday night, with a weak associated surface low tracking along
the NC/VA border, then out to sea by Saturday morning.

Sfc low track favors heaviest snowfall well south of the Mason
Dixon line, perhaps even south of D.C. However, strong
frontogenetical forcing in the left exit region of a 120kt jet
streak is likely to result in a period of light snow across
Southern PA Friday night. We expected all snow from this
evening, with highest chances of precipitation overnight into
Saturday morning.

Confidence isn`t high enough for headline issuances as per WPC
and LWX collaboration. 2" amounts are becoming increasingly
likely over our southeast, and there is less than a 30 percent
chance for 3-4 inches in spots. Light snow may linger
throughout the day on Saturday, but will become confined to the
Alleghenies by Saturday evening in a cold advection pattern.

 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The NWS AFD is not all suggesting they are thinking high end with this one. 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fair and seasonable weather with diminishing winds appear
likely Friday, as low amplitude ridging builds over the state.
Focus shifts quickly to Friday night as a light snowfall is
expected over most of central PA. All medium range guidance
indicates a digging upstream trough will approach from the GLAKS
Friday night, with a weak associated surface low tracking along
the NC/VA border, then out to sea by Saturday morning.

Sfc low track favors heaviest snowfall well south of the Mason
Dixon line, perhaps even south of D.C. However, strong
frontogenetical forcing in the left exit region of a 120kt jet
streak is likely to result in a period of light snow across
Southern PA Friday night. We expected all snow from this
evening, with highest chances of precipitation overnight into
Saturday morning.

Confidence isn`t high enough for headline issuances as per WPC
and LWX collaboration. 2" amounts are becoming increasingly
likely over our southeast, and there is less than a 30 percent
chance for 3-4 inches in spots. Light snow may linger
throughout the day on Saturday, but will become confined to the
Alleghenies by Saturday evening in a cold advection pattern.

 

The part that confuses me is that Sterling's map is painted with up to 4" totals right up to the M/D line. Sounds like a differing of opinion and not a collaboration. 

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