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Central PA Winter 23/24


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26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was focused on the LSV.  10-1 is higher in the LSV (on Pivotal).  I see out your way Kuch is higher.   10-1 has Harrisburg at 3 and Kuch is 2.7. 

Hmm that’s interesting, Weatherbell is 3.3” Kuch and 2.8” 10:1 at Harrisburg. Splitting hairs at this point in time really but given colder surface temps and a much colder column ratios should be better than 10:1. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Hmm that’s interesting, Weatherbell is 3.3” Kuch and 2.8” 10:1 at Harrisburg. Splitting hairs at this point in time really but given colder surface temps and a much colder column ratios should be better than 10:1. 

Yea, as I mentioned before/above WB had the Euro showing snow over Central PA at 7AM Sat Am while Pivotal has it exiting far SE PA at that time.   The snow maps do not matter anyway but I do like consistency of output.   

 

Here are both Pivotal Nam's outputs.  I am calling Harrisburg the accum mark beside Cumberland County.

 

image.thumb.png.7b49ee47018c2d676adf3acfb86edcca.png

 

image.thumb.png.c35340362a6dabe84a8a70de3888ed3c.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, as I mentioned before/above WB had the Euro showing snow over Central PA at 7AM Sat Am while Pivotal has it exiting far SE PA at that time.   The snow maps do not matter anyway but I do like consistency of output.   

 

Here are both Pivotal Nam's outputs.  I am calling Harrisburg the accum mark beside Cumberland County.

 

 

You’ve done it now, I’m using math haha. Trying to see how Pivotal calculates it’s Kuchera vs WB. So, basically it applies an equation that uses the max temp in the lowest 500mb. In this instance the warmest temp is the surface temp.. which according to the NAM holds at 31ºF for the event. 

image.png.3dc098964fa2dbc8d81a310229d90cfb.png

 

Applying that equation using the surface temp (31ºF = 272.594K) yields a 9.13 to 1 ratio via Kuchera. Right around its output and also <10:1. WeatherBell’s output is greater than 10:1 so something different is being calculated, whether they don’t use temps right at the surface or maybe they’re applying the bottom equation for all temps, which technically would be wrong. To simplify, the bottom equation is used for the max temp being less than or equal to -2ºC. Plugging that same temp for MDT (about -0.5ºC) into would give about a 10.5 to 1 ratio. Interesting, maybe the codes cracked on that. That would definitely make a difference in map output with marginal temps. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

You’ve done it now, I’m using math haha. Trying to see how Pivotal calculates it’s Kuchera vs WB. So, basically it applies an equation that uses the max temp in the lowest 500mb. In this instance the warmest temp is the surface temp.. which according to the NAM holds at 31ºF for the event. 

image.png.3dc098964fa2dbc8d81a310229d90cfb.png

 

Applying that equation using the surface temp (31ºF = 272.594K) yields a 9.13 to 1 ratio via Kuchera. Right around its output and also <10:1. WeatherBell’s output is greater than 10:1 so something different is being calculated, whether they don’t use temps right at the surface or maybe they’re applying the bottom equation for all temps, which technically would be wrong. To simplify, the bottom equation is used for the max temp being less than or equal to -2ºC. Plugging that same temp for MDT (about -0.5ºC) into would give about a 10.5 to 1 ratio. Interesting, maybe the codes cracked on that. That would definitely make a difference in map output with marginal temps. 

 

 

That sound we all hear is one of our regular posters, from Mt. Joy, breaking out T-Squares and calculators to help figure out this issue!  

 

 

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You’ve done it now, I’m using math haha. Trying to see how Pivotal calculates it’s Kuchera vs WB. So, basically it applies an equation that uses the max temp in the lowest 500mb. In this instance the warmest temp is the surface temp.. which according to the NAM holds at 31ºF for the event. 
image.png.3dc098964fa2dbc8d81a310229d90cfb.png
 
Applying that equation using the surface temp (31ºF = 272.594K) yields a 9.13 to 1 ratio via Kuchera. Right around its output and also  
 
This post is why I'm not a red tagger. I am atrocious at maths.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:
Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

CTP with the early call.

I think this event is pretty straightforward.

1 to 3 with a few lucky places getting 4.

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MU:
Coating to 3" Friday night. (Though there might be a narrow swath of 3-5" that favors MD at this time)
Chance of something wintry between February 22nd and the 25th.
Warm weather arrives with the beginning of March.
If warm weather arrives starting March I am fearful of a complete reversal by April. Cold, wet, with many frostswoild at least slow the grass

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Have been out the entire day with a terrible work day so haven’t had a chance to read much (plus I saw math up thread and I was told there would be no math). I thought this would be a Saturday morning to midday event. Is it moved up to Friday evening now? That’ll suck as we have a plane to catch that evening.  

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56 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If warm weather arrives starting March I am fearful of a complete reversal by April. Cold, wet, with many frostswoild at least slow the grass

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There are indications of a trough setting up in the east at the end of the month.

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If warm weather arrives starting March I am fearful of a complete reversal by April. Cold, wet, with many frostswoild at least slow the grass

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April and May is winter anymore.

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Pack the parka and bodysuit for the baseball game

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No dice. Back in 2017 I went to a Phillies-Braves game on a Saturday in April. It rained the entire goddamned time. I sat on the third baseline in a soaking rain wearing just a shirt and shorts.

In 2019 on Mother's Day I went to see the Angels in Birdland and sat in a three hour rain delay.

Since then I have written off April and May as possible dates to take in ball games outside of an impromptu trip to PNG Field or Shitty Island.

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

No dice. Back in 2017 I went to a Phillies-Braves game on a Saturday in April. It rained the entire goddamned time. I sat on the third baseline in a soaking rain wearing just a shirt and shorts.

In 2019 on Mother's Day I went to see the Angels in Birdland and sat in a three hour rain delay.

Since then I have written off April and May as possible dates to take in ball games outside of an impromptu trip to PNG Field or Shitty Island.

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I've got Phillies - Braves Opening Day tickets for March 28th. Between the O's and Phils I have tickets to 15 games so far.

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I've got Phillies - Braves Opening Day tickets for March 28th. Between the O's and Phils I have tickets to 15 games so far.
It'll probably be 75 and sunny Opening Day and then raining or misting and 45 the next month.

August in Pittsburgh is about perfect. It's never failed me weather-wise. Beats the hell out of DC in July, where I baked at Nationals Park in 2018.

If I had 15 tickets like you, I'd have 13 rainouts lol

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