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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It did ok with today's event, but that could have been luck as it's rarely the best model on any particular storm. The king has been dethroned with nothing to replace it, so model anarchy rules.

Who is the dethroned King?   The Nam is probably in the top 2-3 models for this run with verification starting at 84 hours.  It did waver at times as well though. 

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I'll close my nooner chat w/ nice consensus, but still most keep NS and SS separate, so for now we just have a nice mood event.  

Still happy to see it and think theres enough time and space to clean up and maybe a little upside.

 

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll close my nooner chat w/ nice consensus, but still most keep NS and SS separate, so for now we just have a nice mood event.  

Still happy to see it and think theres enough time and space to clean up and maybe a little upside.

 

Nice to be already tracking the next chance & it’s only 4 days away.

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Just melted down the gauge and total liquid for the event is 1.21", of which the first .5" fell as plain rain.  That leaves .71" for my 5.5" of snowfall, which equates to an SLR of 7.75.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Also, I wanted to mention that I thought the HRRR was an absolute stud with this storm from the time it came within range.  It handled the track and evolution pretty darn well, along with the NAM.  It also absolutely nailed the rain to snow changeover time, as well as the snow-ending time, and was pretty darn good with totals too.  All in all, it just offered up a really good depiction of how the storm played out.  Just one man's opinion. 

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Just melted down the gauge and total liquid for the event is 1.21", of which the first .5" fell as plain rain.  That leaves .71" for my 5.5" of snowfall, which equates to an SLR of 7.75.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Also, I wanted to mention that I thought the HRRR was an absolute stud with this storm from the time it came within range.  It handled the track and evolution pretty darn well, along with the NAM.  It also absolutely nailed the the rain to snow changeover time, as well as the snow-ending time, and was pretty darn good with totals too.  All in all, it just offered up a really good depiction of how the storm played out.  Just one man's opinion. 

Queen HRRR/HER?

I agree, just looking at evolution and ignoring snow totals which wavered, the HRRR held its ground nicely. 

 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Blizzard of 93:

I think that everyone in this thread loves snow to varying degrees...some love to track, some love to watch it fall, some love to play in the aftermath, and some love a combination of those things...

I doubt that any of us would argue that no one loves snow more than you do. And you sir, and your unfailing attitude of positivity and refusing to give up, were just rewarded handsomely for your passion and dedication. Truly, you earned this storm. I think I'm happier for you than I am for myself. Well done!

Now...will you please bring home another one? (or two...or three...or...) 

Thanks for the kind words!

I think many on here love snow just as much as I do.

Now, I’ll get back to seeing if we can reel in the next one!

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18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Also, I wanted to mention that I thought the HRRR was an absolute stud with this storm from the time it came within range.  It handled the track and evolution pretty darn well, along with the NAM.  It also absolutely nailed the rain to snow changeover time, as well as the snow-ending time, and was pretty darn good with totals too.  All in all, it just offered up a really good depiction of how the storm played out.  Just one man's opinion. 

It sure did nail it.  I posted something about the mesos hitting the mark really early this morning. 

Hoping they dont shat the bed w/ this next one but the shift south inside 24 with last one should give pause to what we see in the next couple days, with the exception that we are not trying to figure out what letter (A/B to affix to the next one, as its less tricky in evolution as it rides the boundary, with possible SS injection of add'l qpf if they link up a little better than currently modeled.  

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Power came back on around 10am. Phone company fixed the downed line. Had to fix the plow on the 4wheeler, lost the cotter pin. Plowed, started the coal stoker, as it went out with the power failure. Now it's time to eat. Had 6 inches here. My son who lives 3 miles as the crow flies and a higher elevation then me Had 8.25 inches of snow. It was one hell of a day. Hopefully back to normalcy now.

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Gotta love that mid February sun angle - now equivalent to late October.  Finished clearing the driveway around 11:00, bone dry by 2:00.  At least around here, if all you saw were the roads, you'd have no idea there was a 6" snowfall ending 6 hours ago.

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We ended up with 10.5" of snow here in NW Chester County. The rain changed to sleet around 430am and over to snow at around 530am. We had heavy snow and ended up with 7" of snow falling just between 7am and 9am. The 10.5" of snow was our 2nd largest snowstorm this decade...behind only the 16.6" of snow that fell during the first 3 days of February 2021. For the winter season we are now at 21.7" of snow which is only 2.1" below normal through today.

image.thumb.png.93d2ce233af35d67f7046acc552ad5f5.png

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