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Central PA Winter 23/24


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4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

1 what did happen to this so cold cold streak after 15th? 2 it looks like all the mets local and most national are downplaying not buying what models and saying except for it being more south. they are throwing any signs of more then a few wet inchs out the window. but yet they still say a time where heavy snow will be around. does any one here remember a time where the local and most national meteorologists forecasted the opposite of what the models said  if they showed snow and they said not that much or where the model showed almost nothing and they go out on a limb and say 6-10 inchs 

I may be barking up the wrong tree here, but while models are depicting more snow (in most cases) than currently forecasted by local and regional mets, the ground is warmer (not frozen) at least in my area along with the marginal temps at the surface.  With that, while most of the storm will be snow (as modeled), the models do not take into account the ground temps and only the air temps at the different levels of the surface.  Therefore, until areas get into the heavier snow bands, snow may not accumulate as much as models are depicting, hence the lower snow amounts.  Is this accurate when it comes to models?

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42/40 with a few hundredths of rain as I get ready to hit the hay. I like ~3” of paste for down this way. Accumulation will be very inefficient at times but either way it will be fun to watch some hefty rates. Let’s all get a good night’s rest and reconvene in the morning. It’s always a good day when snow is falling. Night boys!

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Okay better late than never. My one and only call map wise. This is a major change from what was in my head 24 hrs ago. Stayed a little bit generous on northern edge in case things trend up north a little bit better in the very near term. Straddled the 3” line near the M/D line. Toned down top end as well, though there could definitely be some 8”+ amounts scattered anywhere in the red area. 

959803988_213snowmap.thumb.png.b130c36c9aa5ab496158be77d13e9cc8.png

 

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GFS has me with 10" Kuchera.  This is the nicest looking distribution I've seen from many of the earlier runs.  I think air/ground temps are what will ultimately determine final amounts.

At 11:15 I'm holding at 42.3 degrees with light rain.  Accumulation of rain so far is 0.13".  Pressure down to 1003 mb.  Looking at the radar it looks like the low center is approximately over I-75 along the KY/TN border.  You can see rotation which is positive for strengthening lows.  I hope to catch a bit of the max blitz around 6:00-7:00am.  For the moment I'll be back at midnight with a final on today 2/12.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ve seen CTP refer to the HREF

Referenced in their 1109pm update.

Quote
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest model guidance continues to back up the significant
southward shift in expected snowfall from the upcoming storm
over all but perhaps the Lower Susq Valley. Light rain has
overspread much of Southern PA as of 03Z in developing warm
advection ahead of the approaching surface low, which is
centered over extreme Western Virginia. Model consensus tracks
the deepening surface low eastward to the Southern Delmarva
Peninsula by 12Z, placing the southern half of Pennsylvania in
the bullseye for the heaviest precipitation associated with fgen
forcing just north of the mid level low track. Model cross
section analyses are also indicating a good instability
signature between 11Z-14Z Tuesday over the Lower Susq Valley,
with a layer of negative EPV located in the layer just above the
frontogenesis. This supports the potential of an intense band
of snow with 1-2 inch/hour rates for the morning commute.

Model consensus continues to support a north to south
changeover from rain to snow late tonight night across the
southern half of the state in association with dynamic/evaporative
cooling initially, then cold advection on the northwest
periphery of the exiting low. The 00Z HREF and oper model
soundings indicate the rain/snow line should clear the southeast
corner of the forecast area by 11Z.

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Beagles20 said:

I may be barking up the wrong tree here, but while models are depicting more snow (in most cases) than currently forecasted by local and regional mets, the ground is warmer (not frozen) at least in my area along with the marginal temps at the surface.  With that, while most of the storm will be snow (as modeled), the models do not take into account the ground temps and only the air temps at the different levels of the surface.  Therefore, until areas get into the heavier snow bands, snow may not accumulate as much as models are depicting, hence the lower snow amounts.  Is this accurate when it comes to models?

let me rephrase this when I was talking about the cold didnt mean for you think I meant winter weather. But 4-10 days ago it was hinted at showed we would get a good below temp singal for the second half of th month. So temps in the 20s 30s but on the 7 day its showing again near normal temps from upper 30s to low 40s and even a few mid 40s later on.is the cold air once again pushed back or doesnt it come downs as far south any more?

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Snowing in State College on the 511 cams. They also show the road caving already in the 7 mountains region east of State College on US 322. 

Really wet snow falling here, not accumulating yet. Temp/dewpoint down to 35/33ºF. 

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50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Moderate rain and 41. Temp hasn’t budged in over 2 hours.

It's 1:00 am and I have moderate rain, occasionally heavy.  Rainfall since midnight is 0.15", coupled with yesterday's 0.18" gives an event total so far of 0.33".  The temperature is holding at 41 degrees, just like @Itstrainingtimeposted over an hour ago.

I hope to be back here for the fireworks around 6:00am if I can get myself up.  See some of you around 6:00ish.  Night.

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4 hours ago, Ruin said:

damn its the other way for me nws saying we get hit hard accurate and local mets are not impressed with it saying slush 1-2 or maybe most 1-4

This one was hard to pin down and once it looked like things were becoming clear at last, there was the big move south. We never did have a handle on it. It is still 36 at 1:45a at Montoursville Airport and while we are in blue for snow, lots of rain still happening in middle of the state like above Harrisburg. I figure things could go several ways for everybody and we will just have to see. 

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Pouring snow here in Eagle Rock resort near Hazleton @ 1800'.  Already over 3".  I don't post much as I am usually in south Florida area for winter months...but had to come up for the storm...it's over achieving so far.  Could end up being a big one for our area!    

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