Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 EC starts us off with a low that is about 50-100 miles south and 3 MB weaker than it was at 0Z (at 1PM today.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 At 1AM the low is 994 in Far Western VA. Still a 3 MB weaker than 0Z and a bit south. Basically, no snow anywhere as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At 1AM the low is 994 in Far Western VA. Still a couple MB weaker than 0Z and a bit south. Basically, no snow anywhere as of yet. It sounds like a weak nothing burger everywhere based on the NYC/NE threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It sounds like a weak nothing burger everywhere based on the NYC/NE threads. I guess I am behind then but yes, not impressed so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z Euro still has a very weak snowfall map. Likely due to fact the heaviest precip rates stay south of the M/D line so its much more a rain/snow mix for LSV and lower QPF totals. With the event 12 hours out now, global models arent as useful and Id be watching the HRRR, RAP, and other hires products 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Since the cat is out of the bag with the EC...last PBP post on this one, at 24 the low has transferred well off the coast and there is very little snow in PA....more mixed and rain but a heavy band of snow in the far South Eastern LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ninja’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, AccuChris said: 12z Euro still has a very weak snowfall map. Likely due to fact the heaviest precip rates stay south of the M/D line so its much more a rain/snow mix for LSV and lower QPF totals. With the event 12 hours out now, global models arent as useful and Id be watching the HRRR, RAP, and other hires products Very true on globals being taken with a grain of salt (obviously ensembles too.) That map does bear some resemblance to the Fv3 and Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 True Central PA would be in trouble for advisory amounts based on Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Very true on globals being taken with a grain of salt (obviously ensembles too.) That map does bear some resemblance to the Fv3 and Rgem. I think the message is pretty consistent across all models regardless what they print out…the axis of heaviest snow will be more centered near I-81 and Route 78 and vicinity versus I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 From hour 18 to 24 on the Euro, the low Jumps several hundred miles East. I do not think it necessarily moves that far vs. jump/Miller B. 500H ULL still in central VA when the SLP is way out in the Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: From hour 18 to 24 on the Euro, the low Jumps several hundred miles East. I do not think it necessarily moves that far vs. jump/Miller B. 500H ULL still in central VA when the SLP is way out in the Atlantic. I think over the last couple days we can all agree the European has not been top dog on this system and has struggled mightily within itself and has had terrible run-to-run consistency 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The Euro has a little bit of support from the Ukie, but no support at all from the mesos. As AccuChris mentioned gotta lean mesos at this stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, AccuChris said: I think over the last couple days we can all agree the European has not been top dog on this system and has struggled mightily within itself and has had terrible run-to-run consistency I personally never think it is the top dog, was just doing the pbp plus my opinion on why we lost the heavy precip (MIller B). I cannot buy the low moved from Western VA to hundreds of miles off shore in 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 LOL, just not even close to much other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 56 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Pretty amazing I went from worrying about this thing cutting to Cleveland to now this whole storm evolution changing and missing to the south. I think a lot of Mets are baffled by this big of a change. They are always baffled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: LOL, just not even close to much other guidance. That is just a really poor map by the Euro for being only 24 hours out. Unless of course it's right, then......gulp. But honestly, I think we have to toss it. With what Bubbler said about the funny business with the Low placement, it is likely struggling with how to handle location and intensity of the precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: LOL, just not even close to much other guidance. The Ukie, Rgem and Fv3 has similar paths to what they show I think...Miller Bish.....just not as "fast" on the others as it is on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Can we please stop taking the Euro seriously? As far as I am concerned, it's no more useful than der iKon. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 People need to ignore the long range models; they are not used in short term, you need to ignore long range and follow short range. Euro, GFS, Canadian, their time is over; now only short range; need to be careful, short range showing banding over a certain area can change the next few hours and be somewhere else. Been through it, I know it happens. It's more of a now casting then assuming right now 18 or more hours from now this is where it will be, will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest HRRR hot off the press continues to speed up the changeover to snow. Now has the rain/snow line down to the turnpike by 3AM and by 6AM everyone is getting plastered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Even I am not panicking about that Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Even I am not panicking about that Euro run. I think all the panic was on other forums. We all just talked about it, learned from it, and moved to the next one :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Quite frankly, if my area isn't in the jackpot, I want it to move SE to where you folks in the metro are and I am shoveling dry ground. Two inches in mid-February is just an unnecessary ass pain. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: How fast can I sign for this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: How fast can I sign for this?? He has plans ranging from $5 to $100/MO so you may be able to get in on the $5 plan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 He has plans ranging from $5 to $100/MO so you may be able to get in on the $5 plan. What does $100/month get? He comes and sniffs your dirt to see how planting season will go?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: What does $100/month get? He comes and sniffs your dirt to see how planting season will go? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I am glad you asked. His snow removal forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I am glad you asked. His snow removal forecast. Wow. Fucking wow. "I'll tell you when it's time to sharpen the blade, so that when that first flake falls, you'll know it's time to stop sharpening and start dulling that blade."Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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