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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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12z Euro still has a very weak snowfall map.  Likely due to fact the heaviest precip rates stay south of the M/D line so its much more a rain/snow mix for LSV and lower QPF totals.  With the event 12 hours out now, global models arent as useful and Id be watching the HRRR, RAP, and other hires products

IMG_4326.png

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Just now, AccuChris said:

12z Euro still has a very weak snowfall map.  Likely due to fact the heaviest precip rates stay south of the M/D line so its much more a rain/snow mix for LSV and lower QPF totals.  With the event 12 hours out now, global models arent as useful and Id be watching the HRRR, RAP, and other hires products

IMG_4326.png

Very true on globals being taken with a grain of salt (obviously ensembles too.) That map does bear some resemblance to the Fv3 and Rgem. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Very true on globals being taken with a grain of salt (obviously ensembles too.) That map does bear some resemblance to the Fv3 and Rgem. 

I think the message is pretty consistent across all models regardless what they print out…the axis of heaviest snow will be more centered near I-81 and Route 78 and vicinity versus I-80

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

From hour 18 to 24 on the Euro, the low Jumps several hundred miles East.   I do not think it necessarily moves that far vs. jump/Miller B.   500H ULL still in central VA when the SLP is way out in the Atlantic. 

I think over the last couple days we can all agree the European has not been top dog on this system and has struggled mightily within itself and has had terrible run-to-run consistency

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Just now, AccuChris said:

I think over the last couple days we can all agree the European has not been top dog on this system and has struggled mightily within itself and has had terrible run-to-run consistency

I personally never think it is the top dog, was just doing the pbp plus my opinion on why we lost the heavy precip (MIller B).  I cannot buy the low moved from Western VA to hundreds of miles off shore in 6 hours.  

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56 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Pretty amazing I went from worrying about this thing cutting to Cleveland to now this whole storm evolution changing and missing to the south. I think a lot of Mets are baffled by this big of a change. 

They are always baffled 

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2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

image.thumb.png.e2bd88fcdd3d4692a3288c1d5248a362.png
LOL, just not even close to much other guidance.

That is just a really poor map by the Euro for being only 24 hours out.  Unless of course it's right, then......gulp.  But honestly, I think we have to toss it.  With what Bubbler said about the funny business with the Low placement, it is likely struggling with how to handle location and intensity of the precipitation. 

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People need to ignore the long range models; they are not used in short term, you need to ignore long range and follow short range. Euro, GFS, Canadian, their time is over; now only short range; need to be careful, short range showing banding over a certain area can change the next few hours and be somewhere else. Been through it, I know it happens. It's more of a now casting then assuming right now 18 or more hours from now this is where it will  be, will be disappointed.

 

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Quite frankly, if my area isn't in the jackpot, I want it to move SE to where you folks in the metro are and I am shoveling dry ground. Two inches in mid-February is just an unnecessary ass pain.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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I am glad you asked.  His snow removal forecast. 
image.png.899fedf7bd921c94cfcf0a2a51e563e6.png
 
Wow. Fucking wow.

"I'll tell you when it's time to sharpen the blade, so that when that first flake falls, you'll know it's time to stop sharpening and start dulling that blade."

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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