pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Based on both NAM maps, if a forecaster said 2-5” for Lancaster/MDT/York that would probably be fine. Lanco's forecaster said not to believe the models.....so don't . Truth told, this one has been a nail biter for some time, notsomuch trackwise or evolution, but as we lack antecedent cold, and the waiting game can be tough thermally down here. We know that all too well. Whether lanco gets into the goods or not, many just to our north and west should enjoy an nice event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Have to keep laughing at these Franklin County depictions on the 3k, lol. People in the snow hole can walk a block or two to find 2-3 inches of snow. thats normally right over my house. Happy it went west.... sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: 3k and 12k are still world's apart with southern totals. Again, how much white rain falls? Elevation, as always, will help tremendously. Yea, I think the Nam 12 is broad brushing more than it usually does (like the typical Global does). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Id imagine come midday NWS CTP likely will do WWA for Adams, York, Lancaster for a broad 2-5” and Cumberland, Dauphin and Lebanon WSW for 4-7” or so That's exactly what I'm thinking they'll do as well. 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Its all about rates with that deformation band. If it is puking 2 to 3 inch per hour, it is going to accumulate and fast. Yep. If we can get 2+ inch per hour stuff, all bets are off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: That's exactly what I'm thinking they'll do as well. Yep. If we can get 2+ inch per hour stuff, all bets are off. My last Lanco centric post, as this storm is about all of us, but we literally could have an event where Quarryville is brown, and Denver/Cocalico has 4-6" paste bomb. Wouldn't be too surprising. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 FWIW, the WRF models basically hold serve in being similar to the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The first wrf took a step back due to speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: FWIW, the WRF models basically hold serve in being similar to the NAM. I see it actually knocking 3-5" off on most accum spots. (Nssl) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Id imagine come midday NWS CTP likely will do WWA for Adams, York, Lancaster for a broad 2-5” and Cumberland, Dauphin and Lebanon WSW for 4-7” or so They should refer all forecast accumulations to weatherbell.com and provide a link 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I love me some ICON, I know, not a forum pleaser unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Living right on the other side of the PA border in Sullivan County and these cutoff situations are never great because I’m either seeing 6-12 here or much less with maybe no in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I see it actually knocking 3-5" off on most accum spots. (Nssl) Yeah you're right. I just meant that they still hold that basic look of a central to southern PA type storm with advisory to warning level amounts. Big picture stayed roughly the same. But yes, totals were slashed a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I love me some ICON, I know, not a forum pleaser unfortunately. It did bring things south however, getting closer. It was our furthest north model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The rgem and fv3 are going to look foolish or score a coup on this one. No rates for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z NCEP WRF-ARW 10:1 snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Forgive me if it was already mentioned somewhere but MDT did in fact set a max min record yesterday of 41. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I love me some ICON, I know, not a forum pleaser unfortunately. It has that tongue of higher snowfall a bit north of other guidance that's showing the same feature. I'm on the south end at 3". Won't be surprised with a future adjustment if other guidance holds onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The rgem and fv3 are going to look foolish or score a coup on this one. No rates for the LSV. The FV3 has made a career out of looking foolish. So often it just seems to be completely out to lunch. Not sure what the issue is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nws Lwx just put out a ws watch for 5" of snow in northern Baltimore County, all of Frederick and Carroll counties. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nws Lwx just put out a ws watch for 5" of snow in northern Baltimore County, all of Frederick and Carroll counties. That is pretty ballsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is pretty ballsy! Gotta be tough to work for the Nws. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The FV3 has made a career out of looking foolish. So often it just seems to be completely out to lunch. Not sure what the issue is. I mentioned it because it is still slated to become "production" at some point. But I agree, it is usually not right...but in this case they have similar depictions (rgem and fv3) with just an hour or two of wet snow out the door. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The RRFS seems stuck on hour 23 but this is what it has for 6am tomorrow, with the flip imminent for York/Lancaster. I've been impressed with this model since its soft launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter Storm Watch finally issued for Adams, York and Lancaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gotta be tough to work for the Nws. Just went up for us too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Icon still likes this weekend. Hope it comes south some, but that never happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 What a nightmare for schools and companies timing wise. It might not snow hard enough for roads to accumulate yet could at any time pour snow and make them impassable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Winter Storm Watch finally issued for Adams, York and Lancaster. FWIW Rgem eeked a touch SE, and while not great for us, I'm following for slight trends/adjustments/continuity purposes. In summary, it didnt go the wrong way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Icon also ticks SE for tomorrow, which gives us on the razors edge, a little hope. Again, just showing for current trend/consensus. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The RRFS seems stuck on hour 23 but this is what it has for 6am tomorrow, with the flip imminent for York/Lancaster. I've been impressed with this model since its soft launch. It has stopped at 23 several runs when I was looking. They must be running out of ram at the same spot each time :-) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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