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Central PA Winter 23/24


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2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Based on both NAM maps, if a forecaster said 2-5” for Lancaster/MDT/York that would probably be fine.

Lanco's forecaster said not to believe the models.....so don't ;).  Truth told, this one has been a nail biter for some time, notsomuch trackwise or evolution, but as we lack antecedent cold, and the waiting game can be tough thermally down here.  We know that all too well.  

Whether lanco gets into the goods or not, many just to our north and west should enjoy an nice event.

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4 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Have to keep laughing at these Franklin County depictions on the 3k, lol. People in the snow hole can walk a block or two to find 2-3 inches of snow.

IMG_4943.jpeg

thats normally right over my house.  Happy it went west....

sorry ;)

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6 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Id imagine come midday NWS CTP likely will do WWA for Adams, York, Lancaster for a broad 2-5” and Cumberland, Dauphin and Lebanon WSW for 4-7” or so

That's exactly what I'm thinking they'll do as well.

 

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Its all about rates with that deformation band.  If it is puking 2 to 3 inch per hour, it is going to accumulate and fast.

Yep.  If we can get 2+ inch per hour stuff, all bets are off.

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8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

That's exactly what I'm thinking they'll do as well.

 

Yep.  If we can get 2+ inch per hour stuff, all bets are off.

My last Lanco centric post, as this storm is about all of us, but we literally could have an event where Quarryville is brown, and Denver/Cocalico has 4-6" paste bomb.  Wouldn't be too surprising. 

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30 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Id imagine come midday NWS CTP likely will do WWA for Adams, York, Lancaster for a broad 2-5” and Cumberland, Dauphin and Lebanon WSW for 4-7” or so

They should refer all forecast accumulations to weatherbell.com and provide a link 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I see it actually knocking 3-5" off on most accum spots.  (Nssl)

Yeah you're right.  I just meant that they still hold that basic look of a central to southern PA type storm with advisory to warning level amounts.  Big picture stayed roughly the same.  But yes, totals were slashed a bit. 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I love me some ICON,  I know, not a forum pleaser unfortunately. 

image.thumb.png.df93f622ee8fb2fc1e6ffccfcba9f516.png

 

It has that tongue of higher snowfall a bit north of other guidance that's showing the same feature. I'm on the south end at 3". Won't be surprised with a future adjustment if other guidance holds onto it.

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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The FV3 has made a career out of looking foolish.  So often it just seems to be completely out to lunch.  Not sure what the issue is. 

I mentioned it because it is still slated to become "production" at some point.  But I agree, it is usually not right...but in this case they have similar depictions (rgem and fv3) with just an hour or two of wet snow out the door. 

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9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Winter Storm Watch finally issued for Adams, York and Lancaster.

FWIW Rgem eeked a touch SE, and while not great for us, I'm following for slight trends/adjustments/continuity purposes.  

In summary, it didnt go the wrong way...

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14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The RRFS seems stuck on hour 23 but this is what it has for 6am tomorrow, with the flip imminent for York/Lancaster.  I've been impressed with this model since its soft launch.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

It has stopped at 23 several runs when I was looking.  They must be running out of ram  at the same spot each time :-) 

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