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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

Sterling up with WWA’s and WSW’s on the Maryland side. Definitely one of my pet peeves is when they don’t communicate/coordinate, and end up looking stupid.

and THATS the big rub for many of us CTP'rs...sterling taunton, mt holly all post perty colors all AROUND us well in advance, while we wait to see what color we get....if any. 

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11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm wondering if this will changeover sooner than expected overnight.

need quicker transfer to coastal to get column to cool.  slower transfer is kiss of death.

and thats a tough one, as we've been burnt far too many times waiting...:whistle:

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The 12z RAP has a similar look to the HRRR through the end of its run.  Correct me if I'm wrong, because I wasn't following the models closely the last few days, but would this not be quite the early score for the NAM in leading the way?

Yesterday’s 18Z NAM was the first model to show the southern solution. So you’re correct.

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

3k and 12k are still world's apart with southern totals.  Again, how much white rain falls?  Elevation, as always, will help tremendously. 

Based on both NAM maps, if a forecaster said 2-5” for Lancaster/MDT/York that would probably be fine.

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

3k and 12k are still world's apart with southern totals.  Again, how much white rain falls?  Elevation, as always, will help tremendously. 

Its all about rates with that deformation band.  If it is puking 2 to 3 inch per hour, it is going to accumulate and fast.

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