mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Forgot the 0z Eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It’s beyond me why State College doesn’t even have a winter weather advisory yet for southern tern counties! Everyone model I see has at least 3-4 inches. People are going to be blindsided… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: It’s beyond me why State College doesn’t even have a winter weather advisory yet for southern tern counties! Everyone model I see has at least 3-4 inches. People are going to be blindsided… They addressed that area in their morning disco. The SE will be the last to turn. However, there is still some doubt/uncertainty as to the p-type for the far SE (Adams, York, Lancaster) as the heaviest slug of precip arrives in the early morning. If it falls hard enough, it could be all snow as it won`t have time to warm up. However, we could see another waggle back north, and this would keep the temps just mild enough for a mix or just plain rain. SLRs continue to look very low (sloppy, wet snow) for all of the area. Extreme snowfall rates are possible. HREF progs support high (90 pct chc) of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates over the central zones, and even as far S as the Turnpike. That would make a big mess for Harrisburg right when everyone is traveling. The uncertainty of the band placement has kept us from converting the Harrisburg metro into a warning at this point. We`ll ride the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z Euro goes too far. Lol Models suck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Euro goes too far. Lol Models suck Richmond looking on with hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Richmond looking on with hope. Bwi gets more than me. Gotta just laugh. At least we're not NE where the Euro was showing 10-15" only yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Great to see the good trends with the overnight models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Bwi gets more than me. Gotta just laugh. At least we're not NE where the Euro was showing 10-15" only yesterday. You always want a little room to allow for any possibility of a last minute north shift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 A little surprised it got down to 27 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest Srefs. I would think the Nams hold in light of these. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest Srefs. I would think the Nams hold in light of these.These follow the previous NAM, not suggestive of the new NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Well well well, things have gotten a bit interesting haven't they. I love being wrong ha. Been pouring through some guidance this morning and the one thing that seems clear for the southern tier is that all of our potential snowfall relies on the coastal developing in just the right manner such that it quickly crashes the column and provides for a few hour period of heavy snow right around the morning commute. How much is initially white rain and how efficiently it accumulates will be big X-factors, but I'll be a monkey's uncle if it doesn't look more likely than not at this point that we're going to get at least a couple inches of paste tomorrow. Got my eyes on this 12z suite. First up is the HRRR, running as we speak. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z HRRR has the SLP further south than 6z through 18 hours, by a decent margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: 12z HRRR has the SLP further south than 6z through 18 hours, by a decent margin. Just gunna post it's colder at 850 vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Man, 984mb slp at 12z tomorrow on tte Hrrr and the precip shield is compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just a beautiful look at H24, with a 984 sitting right in the southern Chesapeake and dumping snow region-wide. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 25 degrees with another heavy frost this morning. Will get up Tuesday morning and deal with what I got. All the model runs has me wondering what to expect. Gas, milk and bread run are in order for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Yep, she is a beaut Clarke 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8AM tomorrow per HRRR is puking snow over the LSV 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm wondering if this will changeover sooner than expected overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Man, she's a quick hitter. Out of here within a few hours. But boy oh boy could it thump with those dynamics as depicted. Total damage...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: I'm wondering if this will changeover sooner than expected overnight. Yeah, for you the flip looks like it could happen as early as 2-3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Storm Clouds said: It’s beyond me why State College doesn’t even have a winter weather advisory yet for southern tern counties! Everyone model I see has at least 3-4 inches. People are going to be blindsided… Par for the course. Been that way for....ever. Its been said many times by many of us, I don't envy the position of pros/public service/safety folk that are responsible for getting the word out, but yeah even for southern tier folks, they should at least post an advisory with disclaimer that were riding the line, and while it may not happen....it may, so dont be surprised if your wet gets white. Specially with morning rush smack in the middle of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 8AM tomorrow per HRRR is puking snow over the LSV Wow! 3" per hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Bwi gets more than me. Gotta just laugh. At least we're not NE where the Euro was showing 10-15" only yesterday. itll tick north for nooners or Hh. Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah, for you the flip looks like it could happen as early as 2-3am. I was wondering because it got colder then expected overnight here. I'm also wondering if it will get as warm today as they say with the cloud cover already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Par for the course. Been that way for....ever. Its been said many times by many of us, I don't envy the position of pros/public service/safety folk that are responsible for getting the word out, but yeah even for southern tier folks, they should at least post an advisory with disclaimer that were riding the line, and while it may not happen....it may, so dont be surprised if your wet gets white. Specially with morning rush smack in the middle of it. Sterling up with WWA’s and WSW’s on the Maryland side. Definitely one of my pet peeves is when they don’t communicate/coordinate, and end up looking stupid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Even if you cut these projected totals in half, which I would certainly recommend, we're still looking at an advisory type of event down this way. Impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Just a beautiful look at H24, with a 984 sitting right in the southern Chesapeake and dumping snow region-wide. If it occurs as depicted there…oh man. Thats a ridiculous look. Blizz is a legend for this one! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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