GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If I knew ahead of time that all I needed to do was tell Blizz he was a weenie and we’d get a snowstorm I would have done it a long time ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 And to think we started the day ready to crown the ICON for being right having the heaviest snow all the way up along the NY southern tier lol. CTP was smart to keep their remaining watches up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Not sure what the orange mix is on the Canadian but I’m going to assume it’s heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: And to think we started the day ready to crown the ICON for being right having the heaviest snow all the way up along the NY southern tier lol. CTP was smart to keep their remaining watches up. It's incredible how all modeling went to its northern forecast only for it and most others coming south to one degree or another. Strange for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If I was a betting man Id guess CTP will issue WSW during the early morning product updates and paint a broad-brushed 4-7” across at least Cumberland, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS also has the Saturday snow chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ukie. G'night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’ll be absolutely gobsmacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 41 here with a couple hundredths of rain and one drunk fella. I’ll be all aboard come tomorrow morning’s shift. Still think this isn’t much of a storm for us down here but some models want to prove me wrong, which would be glorious. Cheers mates! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So update to abc 27 saying mostly rain posted a screen earlier. watched this a bit ago showing that even around 2-3pm they are still calling for rain. I thought it was over by then. was gonna post another screen but file is to big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I noticed this over at weather.gov. We broke some records due to warmth. Between big drops in gas prices on the world market finally translating into lower UGI rates and a warm winter overall, I must say I am glad my gas bills are finally less: .CLIMATE... The following temperature record occurred during the mild weather on Friday and Saturday: FRIDAY FEBRUARY 9TH: -High of 58 degrees at Williamsport tied the record set last year. -High of 62 degrees at State College broke the previous record of 59 degrees in 2001. SATURDAY FEBRUARY 10TH: -High of 53 degrees at Bradford tied the record set in 2001. -Low of 35 degrees at Bradford tied the record maximum low temperature set in 2002. -Low of 41 degrees at State College broke the previous record maximum low temperature of 39 degrees set last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 350 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 PAZ056-057-059-122100- /O.EXT.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0700Z-240213T1800Z/ Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 350 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Perry, Dauphin and Lebanon Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will turn to snow late tonight. The snow is expected to be heaviest during a 3 to 6 hour period from just before sunrise to just before noon Tuesday. Snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour are possible during this period. Snowfall rates this high would slow travel significantly and make it dangerous during the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web at weather.gov/ctp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR and 3K seem the most realistic depictions this AM (snow totals). GFS actually ends in a decent period of rain after the snow. 3K maybe cut off too tightly on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 hours ago, GrandmasterB said: Not sure what the orange mix is on the Canadian but I’m going to assume it’s heavy snow. That is all heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So, CTP does look at the Nam: .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The forecast from all models/ensembles has been changing drastically over the past 12 hrs. The result is a shift of 50-70 miles south for the expected stripe of heaviest snow. The timing is similar to prev runs. The NAM is the most pronounced with this shift. The complimentary, strong (150KT) jet streaks over NY/New England and the Carolinas will generate tremendous lift for a 4-6 hr period over a good portion of the CWA. While the precip will initially be rain thanks to the milder-than-normal temps we`ve gotten used to, it will turn to snow. Wet-bulbing/dynamic cooling and the NErly wind typical with a Miller Type B Nor- Easter will cool the column to a solid snow profile for most of the area through the night. The SE will be the last to turn. However, there is still some doubt/uncertainty as to the p-type for the far SE (Adams, York, Lancaster) as the heaviest slug of precip arrives in the early morning. If it falls hard enough, it could be all snow as it won`t have time to warm up. However, we could see another waggle back north, and this would keep the temps just mild enough for a mix or just plain rain. SLRs continue to look very low (sloppy, wet snow) for all of the area. Extreme snowfall rates are possible. HREF progs support high (90 pct chc) of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates over the central zones, and even as far S as the Turnpike. That would make a big mess for Harrisburg right when everyone is traveling. The uncertainty of the band placement has kept us from converting the Harrisburg metro into a warning at this point. We`ll ride the watch. Many models now keep the entire nrn tier (and almost certainly the far NW) dry. However, we`ll leave accums there for the time being, bringing them down, but holding the warning for Potter/Tioga. This warning may get dropped by later shifts, but the novelty/newness of the change begs for small steps to the change in forecasts. The biggest changes to warning/watch flags are the addition of a watch area over the south-central mountains, and an expansion of the warning area to cover a great portion of the CWA. SF rates could cause a significant impact to travel Tuesday AM, pretty much right when everyone is trying to get out the door to work, school, Dr appointments and other activities. Again, as with the changes across the nrn tier, the shift to the south is so new that a watch is a good first step. The snowfall should exit stage left mid-morning in the west/central and around noon for the far eastern towns. Temps rise thanks to some breaks in the clouds and a downslope in the SE. The snow might start to melt nicely in the SE in the aftn. But, we`ve also nudged temps down across the board for Tuesday, adjusting to the expected snow cover. The WNW wind kicks in and intensifies as the sfc low deepens and moves away, off the East Coast through the day. The upslope flow for the Laurels and cross-lake flow for the NW will generate sct SHSN there. But, they should not extend past the Allegheny Front. The wet/heavy character of the snow should preclude any blowing/drifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I found a winter storm watch for my area at Weather.com. The NWS dose not have my immediate area under a winter storm watch yet according to there web site so I'm a little confused, but I'll take it and be happier than a two peker billy goat . Weather Alerts-New Cumberland, PA Winter Storm Watch From Tue 2 am until 1 pm EST Action Recommended Make preparations per the instructions Issued By State College - PA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Fulton, Franklin and Cumberland Counties Description ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches possible. WHERE...Fulton, Franklin and Cumberland Counties. WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The expected storm track is farther south than previous forecasts. This will likely result in heavier snowfall for the area. The snow will be heaviest during the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 @Bubbler86Do you see any dynamics conducive to producing Moose Biscuits on Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: @Bubbler86Do you see any dynamics conducive to producing Moose Biscuits on Tuesday? LOL, Moose biscuits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 No 0z Euro? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nams are crazy....crazy Great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gfs no slouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It’ll be interesting to see what the national weather service does. As of right now, they are basically saying rain for the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'd be choking if I was in NE. Benn there, done that all too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, anotherman said: It’ll be interesting to see what the national weather service does. As of right now, they are basically saying rain for the southern tier. I honestly never let their forecast sway me one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I honestly never let their forecast sway me one way or another.Yeah, me neither. They are so late to make any adjustments that it feels like they are always one step behind the trends. However, the general public relies on them, so will be interesting to see what they end up doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ggem has entered the room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This will be the biggest snowfall in years if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: This will be the biggest snowfall in years if it verifies. Yeah and the trend is perfect. Let's hope things don't do a turnaround today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The most important map we all need now is the DT start time map. I hope @Bubbler86got a raise to draw that map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Rap looks a lot like the Gfs with that tongue of heavy snow in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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