AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z NAM crush job at hour 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks precip field is more compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Won't be worst looking at 33 hrs Already snow here at 33. The temps on the HRRR were just too warm here, the Nam covers the check box and is colder all across the board (at surface) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAMing underway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Looks precip field is more compact. Classic winter storm SIM radar at 36. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 My question is with the temps being almost 70 for some on fri upper 50s sat and 50 today how much would the warm ground plus maybe some heavy front end rain make it hard for the snow to stick with temps in the mid to upper 30s and no real cold air feeding into the system effect us? I know if we get good rates we can fall a few degrees fast. We need to get a bit colder tomorrow night before anything moves in and hope we get some cooling with evap cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks precip field is more compact. The snow map is indeed fairly skinny and cuts off fast to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Closeup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Another 0z NAM kuchera view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Impressive NAM run. Rates would be insane if this verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3k Nam cheaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If the NAM is anywhere close to accurate NWS CTP would need to flip where they have the WSW up and put it much farther south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Closeup I am glad I sent some props to our Northers today...good vibes before that snow map blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12k and 3k continue to be light years apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 3k Nam cheaper The difference between 12 and 3 is 9. The same difference for Williamsports snow totals between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Literally no snow where almost all of the current warnings exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z 3km NAM 10:1 and kuchera snow maps zoomed in from WB products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3k NAM improved again for Harrisburg which gets 6 on the Kuchera map this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: 12k and 3k continue to be light years apart. On my phone and not zooming much but that under 1" hole on the 3k looks close to greencastle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Average kuchera snowfall blended between 0z HRRR and 0z 3km NAM for Lebanon County blends to about 9-10” and 1.3” LE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On my phone and not zooming much but that under 1" hole on the 3k looks close to greencastle! Yep. It’s quite a spread between the two. Heck, I’ll even take a compromise, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Apparently Blizz is a miracle worker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Would be funny if Harrisburg picked up a foot and had more snow than Erie on the season midway through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 lol latest update from abc 27 earlier today they had 2-4 for harrisburg area and ran around md/pa line now they have way less even tho the models trended more south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NWS CTP updated their discussion at 9:07PM (before 0z NAM came in) and were already discussing significant snow may now make it down to the I-81 corridor and they will ride the watch still 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I like seeing the dew points dropping currently into the mid 20s in NW PA at this hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I like seeing the dew points dropping currently into the mid 20s in NW PA at this hour. My temp now is 42° and DP is 34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Do not think I saw this mentioned but the 3K is 2-3 hours faster with the movement of the slp vs. The 12k. It leads to a warmer 2M profile during precip times for areas that are close to the rain/snow line...35 here at hour 34 on the 3K, 32 on the 12. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 minutes ago, AccuChris said: NWS CTP updated their discussion at 9:07PM (before 0z NAM came in) and were already discussing significant snow may now make it down to the I-81 corridor and they will ride the watch still Good catch, here are this CTP comments. “there remains some model spread in the exact low track, which could alter exactly where the heaviest precipitation falls. The 18Z EPS for instance now tracks the surface low a bit further south, which could result in the heaviest precipitation falling over extreme Southern PA and shift the axis of heaviest snow from just north of I-80 to just south of it. Marginal surface temperatures and uncertainty where the potential CSI banding occurs argues for riding the current Winter Storm Watch over much of the region. Still can`t rule out significant snow as far south as the I-81 corridor based on the latest southern shift in the models.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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