Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's why I have a disdain for ensemble forecasting, short, medium, or long. They change as much as the operational, group think with the operationals, and are hit and miss like the operationals. And "yes", I really do understand how to use them. The best you can say imho(not that anybody cares) is they are a little better in 7-10 days+ periods. The extended EPS & GEFS...lol. Now you are speaking my language though disdain may be harsh for my thought. I do not like them treated as better than op's vs. to help verify ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs throws Bubbler and I a bone. Not as much as Canderson who gets 7". Snowing again Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not as much as Canderson who gets 7". Snowing again Sat. What storm are you referring to here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: What storm are you referring to here? The Gfs pre V-Day storm unless I saw it wrong on my phone. Yes, you are reading that right. 7" on V-Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Despite being told it’s over last night & that me & apparently CTP were wishcasting….. The 12z GFS had Warning snow for the Harrisburg area on to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z Canadian similar low position as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Uncle Ukie drinking early on Super Bowl Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Uncle Ukie drinking early on Super Bowl Sunday. A bit of a bow to the fv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z GEFS & 12z GEPS both brought the snow line further south than their previous run. Both now get 4.7 to Harrisburg by Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 From CTP… ”A deepening low pressure system lifting out of the Gulf Coast will track across Delaware and the southern tip of New Jersey Monday night into early Tuesday bringing a Moderate to heavy snowfall across much of Central and Northern PA, while a longer period of rain for the first half of the storm leads to a slushy coating to few inches across the region east of Interstate 83 and south of the PA Turnpike.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Despite being told it’s over last night & that me & apparently CTP were wishcasting….. The 12z GFS had Warning snow for the Harrisburg area on to the north. If we haven’t had a storm named after Blizz yet this year I’m nominating this one! Keep up the good fight Blizz, most of us love it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z Euro slight improvement for the LSV over its last couple of runs, but still has less than latest GFS & Canadian in the LSV. The rest of CTP further north & west of Harrisburg still do well this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z Euro slight improvement for the LSV over its last couple of runs, but still has less than latest GFS & Canadian in the LSV. The rest of CTP further north & west of Harrisburg still do well this run. The Euro looks close to me to having a bit more snow in the LSV with the 540 line crashing with heavier precip still overhead & the low position offshore as of 12z Tuesday. The short range higher res models should help to resolve this area closer to storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I’ll probably draw up a snowmap for this sometime tomorrow, most likely after I see 12z guidance. I don’t do the “first guess”, “first final guess”, “second final guess”, “actual final guess”, etc haha. Where am I at with this currently? I think I-80 corridor and a bit north of there is favored for the big totals right now and big totals being an 8-12” type with some scattered higher totals. This is gonna hit hard where the banding sets up. And that’s really the big thing about this ticking north. Dynamics with this thing transferring to a rapidly deepening coastal and likely heavy banded precip is enough to snow wherever in CTP. But if primary climbs too far before that occurs then the best banded precip is north… which is kind of where the models headed the last couple runs (esp yesterday). This is my take on headlines right now, I drew out where I think advisories probably should be. The 6” line is probably somewhere within these question mark counties.. but I’m not sure if it’s going to cover enough of those counties to warrant a warning yet.. hence the question mark. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z GEFS & 12z GEPS both brought the snow line further south than their previous run. Both now get 4.7 to Harrisburg by Tuesday evening. The 12z EPS joined the other 12z ensembles & also has higher snow amounts for the LSV with now getting the 4 inch line to Harrisburg. This is is best EPS run since early yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just looking at Gefs and Geps and the MA long range thread. What a disaster those weeklies and ensembles have been, from a +PNA to -PNA and losing the -NAO to some weak higher pressures. Of course, when they started showing that ridging and warmer temps I was worried about, they look to hold that or some other snow destroying pattern. Unless that system on the Icon is real next weekend, we'll be lucky to get a March fluke, assuming the SSW is even real. Icon has the hot hand, so I'm putting what few eggs I have left after throwing so many at the wall this season in the Icon's basket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just looking at Gefs and Geps and the MA long range thread. What a disaster those weeklies and ensembles have been, from a +PNA to -PNA and losing the -NAO to some weak higher pressures. Of course, when they started showing that ridging and warmer temps I was worried about, they look to hold that or some other snow destroying pattern. Unless that system on the Icon is real next weekend, we'll be lucky to get a March fluke, assuming the SSW is even real. Icon has the hot hand, so I'm putting what few eggs I have left after throwing so many at the wall this season in the Icon's basket.How can you believe anything in the long range? Bad or good….its not worth getting worked up over either way. I’m going to say we get a pleasant surprise soon. Just have a feeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: How can you believe anything in the long range? Bad or good….its not worth getting worked up over either way. I’m going to say we get a pleasant surprise soon. Just have a feeling. Exactly, I feel we will be busy in here through mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Latest long range HRRR showing some intense snowfall come 7AM Tuesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, AccuChris said: Latest long range HRRR showing some intense snowfall come 7AM Tuesday Beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hour 48 on HRRR has storm ending in CTP and wrapping up in eastern PA. This would be very nice if it could verify. Essentially dumps 2-5” for many in under 4 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 These are the 12z ensemble snow maps for day 5 through 15. These do NOT include the current early week storm. This is a great general signal for active pattern with chances in this day 5 through 15 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Hour 48 on HRRR has storm ending in CTP and wrapping up in eastern PA. This would be very nice if it could verify. Essentially dumps 2-5” for many in under 4 hours I'd feel a whole lot better if the Nam twins followed suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Srefs look much better on 15z vs 9z. Maybe mesos are catching us a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Here is the 15z SREF ARW, NMB, and the mean solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam is snowing hard at 42 in the LSV. LSV Wide WSW would be needed. THIS is an official naming as it pertains to the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam is snowing hard at 42 in the LSV. We just got purpled!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam is snowing hard at 42 in the LSV. LSV Wide WSW would be needed. Serious & thoroughly satisfying NAMing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 All aboard the Blizz train as the NAM goes wild for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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