pasnownut Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the MJO progression into the null phase & then emerging into weak phase 7 & 8 will help the pattern to improve by the end of the month. I hope the emergence into 8 continues due West...right off the chart. Low amp might not be enough help if AO/NAO are only slightly in our favor as tellies suggest twds Christmas week n beyond. Regardless, signals are starting to look somewhat better, and lets hope that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 44 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Better looks continue at the end of all 3 ensembles for late December. 6z Gefs look alot like the other 2 fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gefs look alot like the other 2 fwiw. we just need the good 384hr maps to be showing at sub 240. Hoping that happens in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 A surprisingly mild 33 this morning - much warmer than @Mount Joy Snowman for today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: A surprisingly mild 33 this morning - much warmer than @Mount Joy Snowman for today. Sw'ly flow ahead of the front killed any chance at an inversion. Closest Wunderground site to me only made it to 28.6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sw'ly flow ahead of the front killed any chance at an inversion. Closest Wunderground site to me only made it to 28.6. Correct - frontal passage timing is unique in that now that the flow has switched around to the NW, temps will only slowly rise today before bottoming out tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sw'ly flow ahead of the front killed any chance at an inversion. Closest Wunderground site to me only made it to 28.6. I saw 27 on car thermo on way into office at 7am #winning :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 HP anchored over WVA is our saving grace from notably warmer temps here (for the next 48hrs anyway). As soon as it scoots, it takes the cold w/ it when winds turn SW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 WPC starting to zero in on the big east coast rainstorm for next week that @MAG5035 alluded to: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 WPC starting to zero in on the big east coast rainstorm for next week that [mention=1507]MAG5035[/mention] alluded to:If it won't snow we really could use 4"-6" of rainSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Eb nooners. 41 and Mostly Sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: If it won't snow we really could use 4"-6" of rain Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I guess we could potentially get half of that depending on the final evolution of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Eb nooners. 41 and Mostly Sunny. I've reached my forecast high of 43 here currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've reached my forecast high of 43 here currently. We have reached the point where that is almost normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I've reached my forecast high of 43 here currently. 45 with winds guesting to 22Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 30 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: 45 with winds guesting to 22 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It is indeed a "not comfortable" 40's out. Just stepped out and did not have a coat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 It is indeed a "not comfortable" 40's out. Just stepped out and did not have a coat on. I see on the NWS wind chill calculator they have watts per metered square. I'm familiar with it from solar power, but how is it related to wind chill? It seems to go down as temp increases but wind stays steady. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 12Z GFS op still have some stuff to watch. It is changing so much run to run I am not going to put too much effort in it but has cold air chasing the big storm Mon/Tue (too late for LSV) then said storm is back to looping up and try to pull somewhat cold air back down over us Christmas Eve. Certainly not great panels but still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I'm just the messenger of one professional opinion...and it's a rather strong one at that. (posted last evening from MU) Essentially, cold air is and will remain bottled up at high latitudes for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Greenland/North Atlantic blocking is currently absent and not expected to develop through the end of December, and a Pacific Jet Extension (PJE) should flood much of North America with mild air for the foreseeable future. PJEs typically force a southward dip in the Jet Stream over Alaska and the eastern Pacific and a subsequent northward bulge over eastern North America. The resulting, westerly flow across the contiguous United States keeps Arctic air confined to high latitudes. As such, December is essentially a "lost cause" for snow-lovers south of I-80 and east of I-99. "Wishcasts" calling for a White Christmas or a shift toward colder/snowier weather around the holiday are simply not based in reality and should be ignored. The tide may turn in early- to mid-January, but it'll be a "no-show" until then. As the old adage goes, "Patience is a virture." -- Elliott 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm just the messenger of one professional opinion...and it's a rather strong one at that. (posted last evening from MU) Essentially, cold air is and will remain bottled up at high latitudes for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Greenland/North Atlantic blocking is currently absent and not expected to develop through the end of December, and a Pacific Jet Extension (PJE) should flood much of North America with mild air for the foreseeable future. PJEs typically force a southward dip in the Jet Stream over Alaska and the eastern Pacific and a subsequent northward bulge over eastern North America. The resulting, westerly flow across the contiguous United States keeps Arctic air confined to high latitudes. As such, December is essentially a "lost cause" for snow-lovers south of I-80 and east of I-99. "Wishcasts" calling for a White Christmas or a shift toward colder/snowier weather around the holiday are simply not based in reality and should be ignored. The tide may turn in early- to mid-January, but it'll be a "no-show" until then. As the old adage goes, "Patience is a virture." -- Elliott I guess one might ask what cold air means? If it means no lows in the 20's then I say this has little chance of being correct. If it means no cold air timing moisture, then yea definitely a possibility (no snow.) If I were MU's professor, I would fail him on this statement because 30 is cold no matter what time of the year, IMO. Patience is also allowing for people to misspell virtue. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I guess one might ask what cold air means? If it means no lows in the 20's then I say this has little chance of being correct. If it means no cold air timing moisture, then yea definitely a possibility (no snow.) If I were MU's professor, I would fail him on this statement because 30 is cold no matter what time of the year, IMO. Patience is also allowing for people to misspell virtue. I hesitate to speak for someone that I don't even know. I'll assume that he means that in aggregate, the remainder of the month will be well AN. Your point is certainly thought provoking, and I guess opens things up for personal perception. I would not classify a low of 30 or even in the 20s in December as "cold" but again, that's me. The normal low at MU for the remainder of the month ranges between 22 and 26 degrees, so a temp of 30 is fairly significantly AN. If it was 30 on the morning of 10/14, I'd say it's cold. To me, the time of year matters greatly in my own perception. 75 in February is incredibly warm, 75 in July is delightful. Interesting how all of us are unique in our own perceptions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I hesitate to speak for someone that I don't even know. I'll assume that he means that in aggregate, the remainder of the month will be well AN. Your point is certainly thought provoking, and I guess opens things up for personal perception. I would not classify a low of 30 or even in the 20s in December as "cold" but again, that's me. The normal low at MU for the remainder of the month ranges between 22 and 26 degrees, so a temp of 30 is fairly significantly AN. If it was 30 on the morning of 10/14, I'd say it's cold. To me, the time of year matters greatly in my own perception. 75 in February is incredibly warm, 75 in July is delightful. Interesting how all of us are unique in our own perceptions. Definitely thought provoking. If he said no arctic air in the first sentence, then I am down with that. But I think there is a decent chance MU gets below 25 more than one more time this month. The NWS Zone forecast for MU tonight is 24. But yea, saying cold vs. AN does change the perspective. To me, 25 or 30 is cold any day. Mild would be 38, 40ish or above for lows right now. This is similar to the "what is a heatwave" discussion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Definitely thought provoking. If he said no arctic air in the first sentence, then I am down with that. But I think there is a decent chance MU gets below 25 more than one more time this month. The NWS Zone forecast for MU tonight is 24. But yea, saying cold vs. AN does change the perspective. To me, 25 or 30 is cold any day. Mild would be 38, 40ish or above for lows right now. This is similar to the "what is a heatwave" discussion.I took it as no periods beyond 1-2 days of departure from normal greater than 5+ degrees below normalSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I think before when I looked at December snowfalls >=4" one of the single biggest predictive indicator was it fell within a 3+ day streak of 5+ below normal temps Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I took it as no periods beyond 1-2 days of departure from normal greater than 5+ degrees below normal Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That is a whole bunch of reading between the lines. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 That is a whole bunch of reading between the lines. LOL. Haha, it is, but even with that predictor it was pretty weak, just several times more likely than periods when it wasn't. God only knows how the hell to communicate that to the masses outside of some catchy jingle Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I took it as no periods beyond 1-2 days of departure from normal greater than 5+ degrees below normal Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a whole bunch of reading between the lines. LOL. I've read and reread that statement 15 times. And now, it's happy hour for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I've read and reread that statement 15 times. And now, it's happy hour for me. Haha, Maybe worded horribly, but it is logically consistent Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've read and reread that statement 15 times. And now, it's happy hour for me. Time for a cold one, eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Interesting info I just saw in the MA. high risk Meteorologist The GEFS was indeed upgraded to use the FV3 core in 2020! https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/ It doesn't, however, have the changes that were made to the GFS in Version 16 in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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