Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-112045- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will turn to snow through the night Monday night and early Tuesday. The storm track is now expected to be slightly farther north. This should allow the precipitation to stay rain for longer during the storm. Thus, snowfall totals are expected to be less than earlier forecasts for southern PA. The watch may be cancelled if the expected snow amounts continue to drop. CTP refreshed the Watch overnight but did mention at the end that they may cancel the Watch if amounts continue to drop in southern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z EPS & 6z GEFS still keep the LSV in the game for Advisory snow & still have Warning snow for the northern half of CTP. razor thin edge for us on the southern edge of the reds and purples. need a last minute shift south of 50-75 miles for me to feel "comfortable" with warning level totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Money shot for the HRRR. As the low continues east, more areas to the south and east change over to snow. Areas south of Harrisburg dry slot before there is much snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Money shot for the HRRR. As the low continues east, more areas to the south and east change over to snow. That’s a nice look to a quick rain to snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: That’s a nice look to a quick rain to snow. . That dry slot does much of us in though the tail/ccb is still behind us at the end and it still snowing over parts of central and western pa at this point...not sure that "CCB" provides much if the low continues to move east and not stall. Stil snowing East and North East of the LSV as well at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Long range HRRR snow. Note is still snowing for most at this point. In the LSV, if you are south of the turnpike its a battle most of the night. North and west of I-81 and north of Route 78 turn over to snow most quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Long range HRRR snow. Note is still snowing for most at this point. In the LSV, if you are south of the turnpike its a battle most of the night. North and west of I-81 and north of Route 78 turn over to snow most quicklyI’ve seen it many times. Harrisburg has been snowing for 2 to 3 hours while we are raining waiting for the first flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’ve seen it many times. Harrisburg has been snowing for 2 to 3 hours while we are raining waiting for the first flakes. . Here is the look...unfortunately I think much of the Western snow dries out as it moves East....to the point that it is fairly light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Low of 44 here. I have always believed this to be a true central to northern PA type event and expect even further shifts to the north. Would put the over/under at one inch down this way and would probably take the under. As always, hope to be wrong. Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 44 here. I have always believed this to be a true central to northern PA type event and expect even further shifts to the north. Would put the over/under at one inch down this way and would probably take the under. As always, hope to be wrong. Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone! Exactly, I usually tell the wife when snow is coming but never even mentioned this storm because I figured it was a nothing burger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Here is the look...unfortunately I think much of the Western snow dries out as it moves East....to the point that it is fairly light. Would be a good hour in eastern areas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 CTP forecast for me now has less than an inch of snow. And imo that’s being aggressive lol. That WSW is strange because the totals don’t even reach the base watch criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Thermals much worse on the Nam 3K for any areas where it is "close". Mostly an I80 and North snow. Looks more like "King" Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam 12 I just want to be "purplized" at least once this winter and then back to spring-fall hibernation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thermals much worse on the Nam 3K for any areas where it is "close". Mostly an I80 and North snow. That should get some ENE'ers a little squeamish. Boundary temps have been killing them this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I just want to be "purplized" at least once this winter and then back to spring-fall hibernation. I think you and I are now real long shots for anything substantial with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Seems like a once promising storm like 24 hours ago is now going down the tubes imo. Even NWS has begun cutting totals since 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think you and I are now real long shots for anything substantial with this one. Yeah. I was referring to future events. "She's Gone" © 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 And then there is the FV3 which drives the Primary into Western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Yeah. I was referring to future events. "She's Gone" © Better Learn How to Bake © 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And then there is the FV3 which drives the Primary into Western PA Is the PD storm toast too as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Is the PD storm toast too as of now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 While today will be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday it will still be almost 10 degrees above average for the date. Cloudy today and tomorrow with rain arriving tomorrow after evening rush hour. The rain should mix with and change to snow toward rush hour on Tuesday AM with maybe a small slushy accumulation across some of the higher spots of Chester and Berks counties. Most of the rest of the week will feature more seasonable temps with Wednesday being the chilliest day with highs in the low to mid 30's. Records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low -13 (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.6" (1983) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, canderson said: LOL of course I would say this...models are changing rapidly now (maybe like usual though some don't agree) so still an event to keep an eye on. On the MA board it has gone from blockbuster to "no storm let's move to the 24th" to back where it is one to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I would say this...models are changing rapidly now (maybe like usual though some don't agree) so still an event to keep an eye on. On the MA board it has gone from blockbuster to "no storm let's move to the 24th" to back where it is one to keep an eye on. Oh it’s wayyyyyy too early to praise or cancel anything- absolutely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I would say this...models are changing rapidly now (maybe like usual though some don't agree) so still an event to keep an eye on. On the MA board it has gone from blockbuster to "no storm let's move to the 24th" to back where it is one to keep an eye on. That's why I have a disdain for ensemble forecasting, short, medium, or long. They change as much as the operational, group think with the operationals, and are hit and miss like the operationals. And "yes", I really do understand how to use them. The best you can say imho(not that anybody cares) is they are a little better in 7-10 days+ periods. The extended EPS & GEFS...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Take a look at the Icon starting 132hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs throws Bubbler and I a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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