Santa Clause Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Im going to be so shitfaced tomorrow that I’ll likely forget about storm until it’s raining outside Monday lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Dude please be respectful. We all want it to snow as much as you do, but sometimes your wishcasting and “grasping at straws” approach when things are clearly trending in the wrong direction are a bit much. Really, you’ve got to kidding me right? I’m the disrespectful wishcaster…. Grasping at straws when there is still no model consensus… Oh… & I’m sitting currently under a Winter Storm Watch from CTP… Thanks for your contribution… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 My 2 cents. I can't recall a storm with the Euro in bed with the Gfs contrary to the Ukie and Canadian. No idea where it ends, but default/safe bet is always north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 In every thread on here the good posters that make quality contributions day after day are getting attacked… What a crazy freaking world we live in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: In every thread on here the good posters that make quality contributions day after day are getting attacked… What a crazy freaking world we live in! I love ya bro….me and you riding this one out until the bitter end since we’re not on Maryland border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Here’s more grasping at straws from pro Mets at the National Weather Service…. How about we give them some respect. I suppose they are grasping straws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I mistakenly posted the 144hr Ukie snowfall map which includes stuff next week. This map is just this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: I love ya bro….me and you riding this one out until the bitter end since we’re not on Maryland border. Yes, we might need a southern tier PA & northern tier of MD thread soon… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Are you near fort hunter mansion? That place is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mitchnick said: I mistakenly posted the 144hr Ukie snowfall map which includes stuff next week. This map is just this storm. Can’t be right because a few people think it’s over….LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Let’s hope euro hangs tough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Are you near fort hunter mansion? That place is awesome Yes, just about 10 minutes away. Beautiful park there as well right along the river with scenic views. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Seriously tho why do cmc and ukmet think it’s gonna be so mehhh precip wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, we might need a southern tier PA & northern tier of MD thread soon… East of Somerset and Garrett Counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Here is some of CTP’s latest Forecast discussion: ”LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: * Increasing potential for plowable to possibly heavy snow Monday night into early Tuesday (February 12-13th) * A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of central Pennsylvania Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * Some uncertainty still exists on the western fringe and across southern PA, where the placement of the low could allow for longer periods of rain, lowering snowfall totals. All medium range guidance phases a potent southern stream shortwave with the northern branch of the jet early Tuesday, as if lifts northeast from the Miss Valley. The bulk of model guidance tracks the associated deepening surface low just south of PA and off the Delmarva Peninsula by early Tuesday morning, placing much of Central PA in the bullseye for the heaviest precipitation associated with strong warm advection and upper level diffluence north of the low track. A dual jet streak structure favors a region of enhanced fgen forcing in this region north of the low track. Model cross section analyses are also indicating a good instability signature between 06Z-12Z Tuesday, with a layer of negative EPV located in the layer just above the frontogenesis. This scenario supports the potential of intense banding somewhere over Central or Southern PA late Monday night. As for ptype, model consensus currently points to an initial rain/snow mix changing to snow late Monday night in association with dynamic cooling initially, then cold advection on the northwest periphery of the exiting low. Although this scenario definitely supports the possibility for a period of heavy snow across a large portion of Central PA, there remains some significant model spread in the exact low track, which could alter exactly where the heaviest precipitation falls. The 18Z GEPS for instance tracks the surface low considerably further south, which could result in the heaviest precipitation falling over extreme Southeast PA with little over the northern half of the state. The current Winter Storm Watch highlights where model consensus currently supports the best chance of a 6+ inch snowfall. Locations to the north and west of the main swath will get less precip and thus less snow overall, while areas further south (closer to the low track) will have to contend with a longer period of rain before any changeover. Timing has become more clear with recent model guidance, suggesting the heaviest snow will fall during the predawn hours of Tuesday, with the most significant travel impacts expected for the Tuesday morning commute. Please stay tuned for updates to the forecast, as details continue to be ironed out in upcoming forecast cycles.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 @Blizzard of 93 I didn't mean to stir. I only made an observation based on previous comments. I even said it could trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Blizzard of 93 I didn't mean to stir. I only made an observation based on previous comments. I even said it could trend better. 0% was directed at you good sir! The visiting pot stirring posters set me off & being called a disrespectful wishcaster by that one dude put me on edge to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: He only has so much budget to pay the kid to draw it. Well than I think you should ask for a raise. After all you been doin this for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Another steamy Feb morning...48 degrees. Feels like summer to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Another steamy Feb morning...48 degrees. Feels like summer to be honest. 41 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 41 here MDT's low so far today has been 43 or 44 so they need to get down to 39 by midnight to avoid a tie or break the Max Min record for February 11th. 3K has them making it to 38 but HRRR and RGEM do not and suggest a record is made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 One thing for sure, especially here. Its been a long time since we had a rain to accumulating snow scenario. As NWS mentioned rain might hold on longer in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: One thing for sure, especially here. Its been a long time since we had a rain to accumulating snow scenario. As NWS mentioned rain might hold on longer in the valleys. We did have one earlier this season. Jan 6th maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: In every thread on here the good posters that make quality contributions day after day are getting attacked… What a crazy freaking world we live in! Canderson for moderator! I know he'd do a good job keeping things civil here without being over the top heavy handed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: We did have one earlier this season. Jan 6th maybe? You could be right, and I think you are. But it was more common about 40 years ago when I was growing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z GFS gets Advisory snow to Harrisburg & Warning snow further north on CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GFS gets Advisory snow to Harrisburg & Warning snow further north on CTP. Hopefully this is not slipping away (moving further north from us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z NAM still looks good with a coastal low track a little further offshore. It brings 3 to 4 down to even Rouzerville & Hanover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z EPS & 6z GEFS still keep the LSV in the game for Advisory snow & still have Warning snow for the northern half of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-112045- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will turn to snow through the night Monday night and early Tuesday. The storm track is now expected to be slightly farther north. This should allow the precipitation to stay rain for longer during the storm. Thus, snowfall totals are expected to be less than earlier forecasts for southern PA. The watch may be cancelled if the expected snow amounts continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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