WmsptWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I think they would usually not issue a Warning unless the first number is 5. So 5-7, 5-10, etc. It is a watch and not a warning so really just a heads up more than a forecast. Right, it'll be turned into a WWA soon enoughSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Atomixwx said: Right, it'll be turned into a WWA soon enough Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk For a watch I guess they could issue it for any reason....if he had a warning for 2-5" it would not be what I thought they usually do. I once read that they now use the midpoint of ranges to trigger the warning so I guess 4-6 could trigger it also. This is all Google info so maybe an NWS savvy met has exact thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The watch "AFD" itself suggests their reason for issue it but it also does not match his zone forecast. It does better match the zone for Nothern Dauphin. Just not sure they split counties for watches. The zone for southern Dauphin only has 2-4". PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-111415- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 246 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0z NAM….overall looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The WB and Pivotal maps are showing a fairly large difference on the latest Nam. 1-3" depending on location. That darkish red dot in N Central is 15" on Pivotal but not 16+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0z NAM….overall looks similar@2001kx and myself will sign on that one. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0z RGEM continues to say “what snow” in central PA. Thermals are just too warm for most. 925mb temps hover around 0-+1C and surface temps top 50° on Monday and only mid-30s during height of event. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I feel like I've been looking at that same map for over 50 years. Different storm, same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, AccuChris said: 0z NAM….overall looks similar Yes, Warning snow for even the LSV. Great low position off of OCMD on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs well north from Nam. If this goes down as Gfs is showing, or north, Icon is hands-down the victor of all the models. It's been north of all guidance consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I feel like I've been looking at that same map for over 50 years. Different storm, same result. Maybe it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Maybe it is! He only has so much budget to pay the kid to draw it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs well north from Nam. If this goes down as Gfs is showing, or north, Icon is hands-down the victor of all the models. It's been north of all guidance consistently. GFS is north? It’s basically over for us then. Oh well, I never had hope at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, canderson said: GFS is north? It’s basically over for us then. Oh well, I never had hope at least. Yes, it’s over because of 1 GFS run…. Great call, lol…. See you at 6z …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, canderson said: GFS is north? It’s basically over for us then. Oh well, I never had hope at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, it’s over because of 1 GFS run…. Great call, lol…. See you at 6z …. Come on you know in your heart that the NW ALWAYS wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Getting closer and closer to where MU said it would end up days ago. Still not likely done shifting either good or bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Come on you know in your heart that the NW ALWAYS wins. Not always, just look at last month when DC won twice with last minute south trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Getting closer and closer to where MU said it would end up days ago. Still not likely done shifting either good or bad though. He called it on what Tuesday? He is so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 According to the 0z Canadian, all of CTP & even DuBois gets virtually shutout. Congrats to the Lehigh Valley & NJ this run. Far from a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, canderson said: He called it on what Tuesday? He is so good. I forgot the storm already freaking happened!!!! No one has won or lost yet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Getting closer and closer to where MU said it would end up days ago. Still not likely done shifting either good or bad though. How much for sayre? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: According to the 0z Canadian, all of CTP & even DuBois gets virtually shutout. Congrats to the Lehigh Valley & NJ this run. Far from a consensus. What a shit storm that would be lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This thing is dead. CTP jumping the gun on issuing a winter storm watch with their already piddly 5” criteria compared to the 6” criteria the entire rest of the northeast uses, seems like false hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, TimB said: This thing is dead. CTP jumping the gun on issuing a winter storm watch with their already piddly 5” criteria compared to the 6” criteria the entire rest of the northeast uses, seems like false hope. Yep, it’s already Tuesday…. I must have slept for 3 freaking days… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yep, it’s already Tuesday…. I must have slept for 3 freaking days… Dude please be respectful. We all want it to snow as much as you do, but sometimes your wishcasting and “grasping at straws” approach when things are clearly trending in the wrong direction are a bit much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Storm Clouds said: Dude please be respectful. We all want it to snow as much as you do, but sometimes your wishcasting and “grasping at straws” approach when things are clearly trending in the wrong direction are a bit much. I mean doesn't help when Tim who is from my area comes in your forum and stirs the pot.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I mean doesn't help when Tim who is from my area comes in your forum and stirs the pot.... As a second straight winter that is a complete and total failure for the eastern US becomes more and more of a possibility, it’s getting harder and harder to be positive and to not be cynical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Ukie still drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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