MAG5035 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro has bumped it’s swath north the last couple runs, matching more of a GFS type swath. The difference being the Sus Valley when comparing GFS v Euro accums.. and GFS is def not my go to if I have to use a global to determine snowfall in the Sus Valley. Euro is probably a better representation of what’s going to happen snow wise with its solution at 12z. 12z vs 0z runs Stronger primary that pushes just a bit further north and keeps things aloft just a bit warmer. I’ve said or at least implied we don’t want to get this to being a longer period of rain to snow changeover event in the southern tier. It’s not the path to success for the Sus Valley with this (or even over here for that matter). Just commenting on the solutions at face value here. There’s not much of a consensus to be had for this cycle op wise. Cold NAM with forum wide snow, GFS/EURO with heaviest swath I-80 and north, UKMET with a southern slider that snows I-80 and south, Canadian with NOTHING, and der IKON so far north that plowable snow is NY border counties and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just feels so hard to get snow the last 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Here are the 12z GFS, Canadian & NAM as of 12z Tuesday at the same time stamp. The location & strength of that coastal low will determine southern PA’s fate. Still lots of variance with 3 days to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Love the optimism Blizz! Still a ways to go I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m in New Hampshire today. 62F on the car thermometer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Just feels so hard to get snow the last 3 years. We haven't had many good patterns for snow down our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’m in New Hampshire today. 62F on the car thermometer. . Just 51 here in Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z EPS for early week trended north this run after a few good runs in a row. Still lots of workable low tracks on the ensemble members. It still has Advisory level snow for the LSV this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Hot off the press 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Hot off the press Wow, I was not expecting this at this range….especially with the model variance at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The range NWS State College has is amusing. Anywhere between an inch and a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Eps beyond Tuesday surprisingly encouraging. Shame I'm having a hard time putting much faith in them after 3 runs in a row they had me between 4.5-5" for next week then cut that in half within 60hrs of the event...and despite having a decent % odds of getting 4" or more too. When will they ever adjust the models to not be so snow crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Gonna touch on the pattern a bit before happy hour. Still much to be determined second half of the month with continued wild variance on operational guidance. It seems forgotten by some how hard it is to hone in on things in a blocky pattern with a myriad of different features in a split flow. One thing that is showing persistently in the 6-10 day period is a hard dive in the EPO to significantly negative anomalies starting in the wake of our departing system Tuesday. With -NAO/AO and +PNA ongoing, this presents an opportunity to inject a cold shot into the pattern… which the Euro picks up on as well as the GFS to a lesser degree. That seems to center near the P-Day period, whether we can will the available southern stream system into PD3 or not. EPO neutralizes near 2/21-22. The pattern looks active storm-wise too in that Feb 15-25 realm. I think the only sure prediction is expect a lot of chaos trying to nail down individual features. I think at the least we get a cold period similar in length and anomalies to what we had in mid January. Big question there being of course whether or not we can carry a more consistent colder than average pattern into the first couple weeks of March. If I had to put numbers out for March (which I will be in about a week) I currently am leaning colder than average March overall with some opportunities, but that may come with another warm period in the pattern towards the beginning of the month. Just throwing some initial thoughts out. Ultimately, I think things are still mostly on track with what I have personally posted about regarding the pattern this month. I expected a very warm front 10-14 days of the month since mid-late Jan and here we are. Near V-Day for a more favorable pattern was my target and the fact that we have a system in play a couple days prior is a bonus. From my Jan 31st post on top of page 251: On 1/31/2024 at 5:56 PM, MAG5035 said: The reversal/tanking of the SOI continues to gain steam. The negative daily values the last few days are easily the most negative of the whole winter season. Much more in line of what is typically seen during Nino’s of stronger magnitude. And as such, the MJO forecasts continue to look set up for an eventual 8-1-2 run after its loop around in 7 the next several days. Further aligning signals are the currently very positive NAO/AO reversing and eventually developing a stronger +PNA and -EPO. Indications for a pattern shift to favor a more wintry regime in the eastern US later in Feb are strong. I said the other day I favored V-day onward for this to start talking hold and that’s about the consensus of most other folks that talk pattern here and in other sub forums. So I don’t really have much to add in that regard that hasn’t been already discussed and mapped out daily. So with that said, I feel like people’s expectations and patience could be tested in the interim. The opening 10 to possibly up to 15 days of the month look really warm.. a necessary evil unfortunately as the trough starts west and eventually shifts to set up shop in the east near the end of the regular operational ensemble guidance range as we build more Greenland ridging in the NAO realm and Western US/E pac ridging in the PNA/EPO realm. Once the influence of whatever ends up spinning around the SE coast early next week moves away, there’s going to be a period of more significant ridging and + temps that take over for a time as a trough first sets up in the west and + heights are able to build the rest of the way into the East. Here’s how we look on the ensembles the next 14 days… Week 1, stupid warm in central Canada and the northern US Week 2, warmth centered more east with western trough I’m only going to D14 with these here, but when you use the full 15-16days in the ensembles, you can see those + anomalies start fading on those temp anomaly averages (I’m using 7 day average here)… as that’s the period where models are starting to indicate the pattern shift taking hold in the east. This pattern change is a matter of when and not if, IMO.. so what we’ll be trying to nail down the next week or so is how fast/slow this occurs. I think there’s still much TBD with respect to that, since the more wholesale shift is still mostly out past D10 on guidance. This change could even come faster, but it might not… which is why I mentioned it could test people’s patience/expectations. Especially if we line up a storm window within a few days either side of Valentine’s Day and we’re not quite there yet to give many folks a widespread snow event out of it, for example. So we’ll see.. I am certainly positive on the prospects of a good later season winter run, but keeping expectations in check. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nam was surprisingly good. It's holding on by a thread. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam was surprisingly good. It's holding on by a thread. Lol Sadly just converging northward towards other guidance. Would be nice if NAM was the convergence zone, but with Euro/EPS bailing that was pretty much our last hope. UK and CMC are garbage models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, mitchnick said: Nam was surprisingly good. It's holding on by a thread. Lol Yes, it shows how the LSV can win. Initial low transfers when it hits central WV & then secondaries off of the DelMarVa & then deepens northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Sadly just converging northward towards other guidance. Would be nice if NAM was the convergence zone, but with Euro/EPS bailing that was pretty much our last hope. UK and CMC are garbage models. It’s not over for most of us in here. Again, we all don’t live on the MD line… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 CTP is so confident that they issued Watches for most of their region north of the southern tier counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Car therm obs today (MDT only made mid 50's) Fairfield-67 Cashtown Inn-64 Chambersburg-65 Taneytown MD-69 Base at Ski Liberty-66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP is so confident that they issued Watches for most of their region north of the southern tier counties. Here is CTP’s latest “Event Total Snow” map which even has Advisory amounts for the southern tier & Warning amounts further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Car therm obs today (MDT only made mid 50's) Fairfield-67 Cashtown Inn-64 Chambersburg-65 Taneytown MD-69 Base at Ski Liberty-66 58 here. That's a great recap of your general area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 58 here. That's a great recap of your general area. 58 on the car thermometer (Mrs. Blizz is driving) as we drive by the Manheim exit on 283. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 58 here. That's a great recap of your general area. It probably hit 70 in some spots but just remembered when I was passing places. It is still 67 just west of me on WU. High in Rou was 64. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 58 on the car thermometer (Mrs. Blizz is driving) as we drive by the Manheim exit on 283. You had her drive so you could PBP 18Z models on your 13" iPad. Makes sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: You had her drive so you could PBP 18Z models on your 13" iPad. Makes sense! Lol, I did kind of angle it that way…. We are on the way to Shady Maple to celebrate the kids good report cards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I did kind of angle it that way…. We are on the way to Shady Maple to celebrate the kids good report cards. How can it be a shady maple in the wintertime??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: How can it be a shady maple in the wintertime??? lol, the restaurant in Lancaster. I’m getting 3 plates of food! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It’s not over for most of us in here. Again, we all don’t live on the MD line… I’m about 10 miles away from it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 FWIW, the SREF is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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