Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z GEFS gets Warning level snow to vast majority of CTP. 2 inch line is down to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: That’s beautiful It has snow where the same models 2M mean is in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It has snow where the same models 2M mean is in the 40's. I don’t love that, but I do like the axis blizz posted above. If we have a 987 over ocean city Md we’re probably snowing even in this set up. A little more N/S interaction wouldn’t have been bad except where the features are now it would pull things a bit too north for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It has snow where the same models 2M mean is in the 40's. Means that there are some pretty warm nembers skewing it warm but plenty of cold members producing decent snows at marginal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Windows open...got to 73 in the house today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z Gem was ready to rock though warm to start, but the run ended just as precip was entering our subforum. The dew point temps are more encouraging than air temps to start. Lol Here are some maps at the link below for more stuff if interested. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Good point, we will need to watch the dew points on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gem was ready to rock though warm to start, but the run ended just as precip was entering our subforum. The dew point temps are more encouraging than air temps to start. Lol Here are some maps at the link below for more stuff if interested. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest That low position at sub 1000 is a good look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Look at the 700mb uvv's. Can't get any redder and they are ready to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Look at the 700mb uvv's. Can't get any redder and they are ready to move in. Definitely the best presentation so far from anyone in the Canadian family. We’re getting some snow if a 998 primary is around RoA or Danville transferring to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, DDweatherman said: Definitely the best presentation so far from anyone in the Canadian family. We’re getting some snow if a 998 primary is around RoA or Danville transferring to the coast. Should attached this close-up of uvv map the first time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I don’t buy any of these snow maps with the temps. I hope I’m wrong but I expect hardly any accumulation here with no elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Are the Gefs this bad vs other modeling or better? These maps are 10:1, so they would have to be shaved 20-30% I would guess. But still, they are agressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, canderson said: I don’t buy any of these snow maps with the temps. I hope I’m wrong but I expect hardly any accumulation here with no elevation. Yes, here it is, thanks..I was waiting for this…! A tradition like this must go on. I’m refilling my gas can for my snow blower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, canderson said: I don’t buy any of these snow maps with the temps. I hope I’m wrong but I expect hardly any accumulation here with no elevation. If you use Kuchera, they will be closer to reality, though the back half of the snow would have decent ratios I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Are the Gefs this bad vs other modeling or better? These maps are 10:1, so they would have to be shaved 20-30% I would guess. But still, they are agressive. The 18z GEFS & 12z EPS are similar with amounts in the LSV. GEFS gets 5 inches to Harrisburg & York while the EPS gets 4 to these locations. The GEFS gets the overall snow line about 50 miles further south than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z Euro looks to be a little further south than 12z. Know shortly for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Definitely south. Bliz....take it away!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Here’s the NBM (National Blend of Models) for reference. Whenever it comes time for CTP to throw out an initial snow map, NBM is likely to factor a good bit into their map. I think this particular blend actually looks solid for the time range we’re in (D3-4). We’ll see if it eventually starts matching up some of the bigger numbers the ops are throwing out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro looks to be a little further south than 12z. Know shortly for certain. It’s a good run for sure, still snowing at 90hr in most of central/eastern PA too and quite heavily in the LSV. 1hr snowfall at the 90hr frame: Total snowfall thru 90hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Definitely south. Bliz....take it away!!!! I’ll take it… @MAG5035 handled the details quite well. 18z EPS should be interesting a little later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Ok. Since Blizvis out gettingvthe kids' mother drunk for later this evening, I'll give you my thoughts and maps. First map is surface weather at 90hrs. Lots of heavy snow. So how far back does the precip go at this point? Euro on Pivotal does not offer a sim radar, but you can get an idea with the visibity map, which is the 2nd map. Finally, Kuchere snowfall map at 90hrs with more to come. EDIT: Sorta Ninja'd by MAG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I had not noticed myself but HRRR does this Well at least there is some excitement in the weather department. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 62 was my high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 62 was my high today. You almost matched me for day one of the torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 61 was my high today, but more impressively it's still 50 at 8:25pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z Eps backed off 2/2" imby and dropped the chances of 4"+ to upper 40's% from lower 50's% Basically noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 61 was my high today, but more impressively it's still 50 at 8:25pm. Windows open here tonight and shorts day tomorrow. I want more cold but going to enjoy the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You almost matched me for day one of the torch. What was your high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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