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Central PA Winter 23/24


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he is probably on double secret probation or some shit.
I was told that if I crossed the line again, they would write a very strongly-worded letter. My response was "I promise my words would be stronger."

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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A big MU update:

Regarding the Monday night-Tuesday system, there is still an immense amount of uncertainty regarding its track and intensity. Much depends on the interaction between the two disturbances highlighted below. The closer together they are, the stronger the system..
(2/4) The upper-level pattern across North America will also be a major player. A ridge axis over the Intermountain West (GFS model - 1st image) would allow the system to "dig" farther south & deepen, while a subtle trough (ECMWF model - 2nd image) would promote a weaker system..
(3/4) Regardless of the ultimate outcome, surface temps will be above freezing and very marginal for snow across northern MD, southeastern PA, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. In order for rain to change over to snow and accumulate, precipitation will need to fall heavily..
4/4) The storm is still about 4 days away, so I won't be able to finesse the details until Monday. For now, I still favor an outcome with no accumulating snow south of the PA Turnpike. Don't pay attention to forecast snowfall maps until Sunday. They're bound to fail.
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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Someone break out the actual snowfalls per member and see if we have some outliers causing that.   I do not have access unfortunately.   Cheap. 

While hopefully feasting on the Euro over my lunch….

Here are the 12z GEFS individual ensemble members,

I count roughly 20 of the 30 members would work for many of us.

IMG_5010.png

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14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro looking generally similar to last nights 0z. 

image.thumb.png.f55b13d7fa7d81465cf3056dc8e0c27c.png

The initial low in the 12z Euro gets to WV before the transfer to the coastal.

Slight improvement over 0z Euro on the Kuchera snow maps for Rouzerville, York & Harrisburg areas.

Good run especially turnpike area on north.

IMG_5012.png

IMG_5013.png

IMG_5014.png

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One thing that's becoming clear for those of us here in the southern LSV, is that this is the ultimate thread the needle situation.  Speed of the system, surface temps, potency and path of the Low.......all of it needs to be juuuuust right for us to get meaningful snowfall down this way.  And even then, a wet snow falling onto a rain-soaked warm ground will not make for the most efficient accumulations.  It can be done but it's definitely a Goldilocks situation.  I think this is ultimately a storm for true central to northern PA.  As always, hope to be wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wound up and farther north than the faster/less qpf solutions.  Razor thing temp profiles for the LSV.   Quite a bit of rain south of I81. 

 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The initial low in the 12z Euro gets to WV before the transfer to the coastal.

Slight improvement on the Kuchera snow maps for Rouzerville, York & Harrisburg areas.

Good run especially turnpike area on north.

 

Yea it does present a longer period of rain in the Lower Sus Valley before progged changeover, a scenario I said yesterday would have a high potential to disappoint there. The southern third of PA seems to be on a pretty fine line with the guidance suite today with the last couple GFS runs edging up just a bit. Have to see how the Euro EPS looks in a bit in comparison to the GEFS. 6z Euro EPS looked pretty nice but had more of a central Sus Valley focus on the swath of best probs for >3”. Some pretty high totals on the ops, but I think this has a heaviest swath of 6-10” type potential with it (a bit more once towards New England). 

Definitely need the rapidly strengthening coastal low and associated dynamics (obviously without the primary cutting up too far).  A weaker one probably isn’t going to get the job done in terms of initiating a meaningful changeover outside of the central/northern. 

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I speak broken, shitty high school German, and I decided one time to sit down and watch Downfall in Deutsch.

I spent the next two months telling everyone and everything that they were Fegelein.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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