mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not going to extrapolate too much and I think the GFS had more than one lowest point of pressure for quite some time leading up to the storm on the 12th (on the 12Z run) but the 18Z Nam low position is pretty far north at 84. It did slow down a bit from its 12Z run though. Slowing is the key imho as I posted last night. Plenty of time to go either way, but day 4.5 most assuredly will not accurately represent the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I have a few takeaways from this. Firstly, is that the Euro is still the top model, and not simply because it has the highest average correlation coefficient, but also because it seems to have significantly less variability than the other models and avoids some of the wild swings and misses. Steady as she goes, some would say. Secondly, the Ukie is still a very solid model in terms of large scale pattern recognition. Thirdly, these data are only taken from the 0z runs over a one-month period, not exactly large sample and prone to some skewing if you have a couple of bad singular runs. I also looked at the same scoring but as an annual average over the last 40 years, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_annual/ which shows that, while the gap has narrowed, there has never been a year when the Euro didn't lead the way over the other major models. Also, for almost the last 20 years, every single year the UK has outscored the GFS, which I think would be a surprise to many, and in fact, even the CMC outscored it the last couple of years. In total, all of the models perform much better these days and the gap between them is mostly negligible. Now, these scores only relate to H500 placement and there is obviously more to predicting everyday on-the-ground weather than that, but they seem as good a place as any to start. Mostly these are fringe differences that would be hard to detect by an observer casually checking all the models on a regular basis. Just my thoughts. I recall seeing that years ago when the Euro was much better. But that is based on a forecast 5 days in advance. Which begs the question, how about 4.5 days which is where we are today. Or 3, or 2, etc. I don't know the answer, but it seems to explain how the Euro, or any other model, get beat by a lesser model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slowing is the key imho as I posted last night. Plenty of time to go either way, but day 4.5 most assuredly will not accurately represent the final outcome. Model PBP is all above the enjoyment of finding the differences which lead to the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Model PBP is all above the enjoyment of finding the differences which lead to the changes. Yep. And compare the 18z Rgem at 84hrs to 18z Nam at 84hrs then 12z Gem at 90hrs. Rgem much further west/south. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020812&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I recall seeing that years ago when the Euro was much better. But that is based on a forecast 5 days in advance. Which begs the question, how about 4.5 days which is where we are today. Or 3, or 2, etc. I don't know the answer, but it seems to explain how the Euro, or any other model, get beat by a lesser model. From that site, you can go into the archives and change the forecast lead time to whatever you’d like. I briefly looked at <5 days and it seems to pretty much show the same results, with the major difference being that the gaps between the models are significantly narrowed as you reduce the lead time, as expected. Admittedly, I did not spend much time analyzing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Some positive moves back the other way by the models today. Certainly still some disparity. Canadian still largely uninterested (rain) but did come back towards the other guidance some. Last night at 0z it had the rain/snow line in the NE pretty much where the GFS had the northern edge of its snow shield, so we’re zeroing in a bit. I think the GFS/GEFS is a bit generous getting a pretty significant snowfall swath thru the Mid-Atlantic. Timing/position of the low transfer will be a big factor. Most guidance seems to suggest pretty robust strengthening of the coastal low, so those dynamics will help with cooling the column. Primary up into WV before the coastal takes over isn’t necessarily a bad evolution, but we’ll have marginal cold in place.. so I’m leery of LSV spots yet. Something closer to the colder overall GFS solution would be ideal, because I think a rain changing to snow scenario has a high potential to disappoint in Sus Valley spots. Obviously don’t want to drive the primary up too far either, because aside from initial warm air push you drive north the best precip when the precip shield sets up with the coastal transfer. EC ensemble blend seemed to be the best middle ground for the 12z suite, which looked like this. 3”+ probs Individual members at MDT (24 hr snow) EC ensemble multi-run trend since 0z Feb 4, 24hr snow mean (MDT) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 34 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep. And compare the 18z Rgem at 84hrs to 18z Nam at 84hrs then 12z Gem at 90hrs. Rgem much further west/south. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020812&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 The differences between the 12Z and 18Z Rgem are indeed quite significant. Leery of too much put into where the model places the "L" but definitely a fluid situation to have it that much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gfs is great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs is great Lock it in please… if only… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 We need the Euro on board now please lol… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GFS kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, philliesmd said: The airport, as of 5pm yesterday, had already recorded 23 inches. The railcam is snowing pretty good right now. I forgot about the rail cam. My niece just messaged me and said she got another 14" today so far. So that's 37" between yesterday and today. Now she lives in Flagstaff proper. South of Flag on I-17 (Munds Park and Kachina Village) gets more usually. I'll bet those areas are 40" or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 This was the Kachina Village ADOT camera at 3pm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 18z GFS kuchera @Atomixwx @2001kxand I endorse that run haha. GFS has been illustrating a very well timed handoff to the coastal low underneath PA which sets up some of the best QPF in C-PA and also minimizes any issues with initial rain changing over in our region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Great illustration of the "L" location question on the TT depiction of the rgem. Quite humorous. If you assume the front lowest point on that map, it is not that different from the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GFS kucheraI'll go ahead and sign now. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: @Atomixwx @2001kxand I endorse that run haha. GFS has been illustrating a very well timed handoff to the coastal low underneath PA which sets up some of the best QPF in C-PA and also minimizes any issues with initial rain changing over in our region. Absolutely!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Can the euro come down south some more to meet the gfs? 0z is actually arguably most important suite of the winter so far given the circumstances and this storm is only 114hrs out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 21 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: @Atomixwx @2001kxand I endorse that run haha. GFS has been illustrating a very well timed handoff to the coastal low underneath PA which sets up some of the best QPF in C-PA and also minimizes any issues with initial rain changing over in our region. I think all of us would sign now for this 18z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can the euro come down south some more to meet the gfs? 0z is actually arguably most important suite of the winter so far given the circumstances and this storm is only 114hrs out now 18z will be out in an hour and a half and Eps in 2 and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 29 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 18z GFS kuchera Hopefully 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow brings some convergence between the models. It was good to see the Euro & EPS step towards the GFS today. I think a compromise will still work well for most of us in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GEFS ticked north from its 12z run, but is still good for all of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS ticked north from its 12z run, but is still good for all of CTP. This 18z GEFS now looks similar to the 12z EPS for most of CTP. Here is EPS at 12z to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This 18z GEFS now looks similar to the 12z EPS for most of CTP. Here is EPS at 12z to compare. After the 12Z runs yesterday, I feel it is pretty encouraging (amazing maybe) that we are still talking about snow on the 12th or 13th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: After the 12Z runs yesterday, I feel it is pretty encouraging (amazing maybe) that we are still talking about snow on the 12th or 13th. This would be an absolute bonus if we saw measurable snow. Not into the pattern that supports snow yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 PD storm is alive on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 @Bubbler86 Gem depicts slowing on 18z (bottom) run vs 12z (top). Good sign of movement toward Gfs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Did you know the Icon has ensembles? As if we didn't have enough! Lol Anyway, the slp is about 6 hrs slower than 12z and mean slp location is south a bit of 13z and definitely a fair bit south of the operational. Here are 3 panels. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 52 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Did you know the Icon has ensembles? As if we didn't have enough! Lol Anyway, the slp is about 6 hrs slower than 12z and mean slp location is south a bit of 13z and definitely a fair bit south of the operational. Here are 3 panels. They added that to pivotal about a month or two ago from what I remember. I get mocked for putting up the Icon so did not want any extra back lash but thanks for bringing them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Elliott not backing down from his "no snow" this upcoming week stance: model solutions of the storm's track and intensity will continue to change, and in some cases drastically, from run-to-run. Using large-scale pattern recognition, interior New England has the best chance for accumulating snow. I'll have a full update tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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