pasnownut Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks to be suppressed at 240hrs. I'll take it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Ukie LOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gefs mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Carry that US (GFS) Flag proudly, Mitch....it is probably all we have right now. Been busy but did not notice anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z Euro definitely an improvement from its prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro definitely an improvement from its prior runs Checking in over lunch & good to see the Euro make a large shift south from 0z to 12z. The “blue” made about a 75 mile shift south this run. 0z top 12z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro definitely an improvement from its prior runs Yep, and plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Eps may provide some hope as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yep, and plenty of time. Canadian also made quite the shift south as well. 0z was near Erie & 12z is in the DelMarVa at the same time stamp. 0z top 12z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 A compromise might put us in the sweet spot… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nice shift south on the 12z EPS as well. 12z top 6z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice shift south on the 12z EPS as well. 12z top 6z bottom I suspected as much. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If the GFS was ever to kick the Euro's ass, a Presidents' Day storm should be the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice shift south on the 12z EPS as well. 12z top 6z bottom Enough ticks south to say nooners went the right way for us, as we've got several of em showing hits of various proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, canderson said: If the GFS was ever to kick the Euro's ass, a Presidents' Day storm should be the time. as I said a couple times now, the normally bashed GFS Op at meduim/longer leads has had a decent run in the medium range this season, and while I know it shows what we want to see, there is valid reason the hug the hell outta it....for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I saw that mention on the MA that the Icon is now ranked higher than the GFS in some type of verification? Does anyone have a link to that...or at least some info including timelines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 My niece's side yard in Flagstaff right now. That's a 6ft fence for reference. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw that mention on the MA that the Icon is now ranked higher than the GFS in some type of verification? Does anyone have a link to that...or at least some info including timelines? I saw Hoffman post that he read "somewhere " that it was ranked higher. He didn't say where he read it. Here's a link for ratings of the main models. The difference between Euro, Gem, Ukie, and Gfs is very small. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I saw Hoffman post that he read "somewhere " that it was ranked higher. He didn't say where he read it. Here's a link for ratings of the main models. The difference between Euro, Gem, Ukie, and Gfs is very small. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ Thanks, I have seen that one from ncep but was curious who was ranking the Icon ahead of the GFS. That is a pretty big claim but maybe right if data backs it. I think I saw the same post from PSU which piqued my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Thanks, I have seen that one from ncep but was curious who was ranking the Icon ahead of the GFS. That is a pretty big claim but maybe right if data backs it. I think I saw the same post from PSU which piqued my interest. Even if he saw something that it was beating the Gfs, what period of time are we talking? Those ratings are done once a month, so unless there's some confirmation it's true and over what period of time, people should stop repeating it as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Next Tuesday continues to get more and more interesting...I'm still keeping expectations in check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in here in Western Chesco we are at 51 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, mitchnick said: Even if he saw something that it was beating the Gfs, what period of time are we talking? Those ratings are done once a month, so unless there's some confirmation it's true and over what period of time, people should stop repeating it as gospel. That was my goal in finding out re: the first comment. The timelines/time period was important to understand what it really means if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Next Tuesday continues to get more and more interesting...I'm still keeping expectations in check. Buckle up, pal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliesmd Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in here in Western Chesco we are at 51 degrees What street is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, philliesmd said: What street is that? 45th street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I saw Hoffman post that he read "somewhere " that it was ranked higher. He didn't say where he read it. Here's a link for ratings of the main models. The difference between Euro, Gem, Ukie, and Gfs is very small. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ I have a few takeaways from this. Firstly, is that the Euro is still the top model, and not simply because it has the highest average correlation coefficient, but also because it seems to have significantly less variability than the other models and avoids some of the wild swings and misses. Steady as she goes, some would say. Secondly, the Ukie is still a very solid model in terms of large scale pattern recognition. Thirdly, these data are only taken from the 0z runs over a one-month period, not exactly large sample and prone to some skewing if you have a couple of bad singular runs. I also looked at the same scoring but as an annual average over the last 40 years, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_annual/ which shows that, while the gap has narrowed, there has never been a year when the Euro didn't lead the way over the other major models. Also, for almost the last 20 years, every single year the UK has outscored the GFS, which I think would be a surprise to many, and in fact, even the CMC outscored it the last couple of years. In total, all of the models perform much better these days and the gap between them is mostly negligible. Now, these scores only relate to H500 placement and there is obviously more to predicting everyday on-the-ground weather than that, but they seem as good a place as any to start. Mostly these are fringe differences that would be hard to detect by an observer casually checking all the models on a regular basis. Just my thoughts. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Not going to extrapolate too much and I think the GFS had more than one lowest point of pressure for quite some time leading up to the storm on the 12th (on the 12Z run) but the 18Z Nam low position is pretty far north at 84. It did slow down a bit from its 12Z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliesmd Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 32 minutes ago, Voyager said: My niece's side yard in Flagstaff right now. That's a 6ft fence for reference. The airport, as of 5pm yesterday, had already recorded 23 inches. The railcam is snowing pretty good right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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