WmsptWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Going to need something better than Phoenix Spilt. That sounds like a Class A Baseball team. Moar like class V, amirite?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The record highs of 61/62 for Feb. 9/10 at MDT may have to be put on notice. Look at the Nam trying to be contrary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually. Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these! And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit. Throw in maybe one or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. Great post today by @psuhoffman on the upcoming pattern potential. Rest up & buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great post today by @psuhoffman on the upcoming pattern potential. Rest up & buckle up! Wiggum of 93! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Wiggum of 93! @psuhoffman is one on the best & most knowledgeable posters on this entire forum… He does not hold back when things do not look good. When he is optimistic & confident, it certainly gets my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @psuhoffman is one on the best & most knowledgeable posters on this entire forum… He does not hold back when things do not look good. When he is optimistic & confident, it certainly gets my attention. Buckle up is Ralph's call :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Buckle up is Ralph's call :-) So is "I'm in danger."Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Buckle up is Ralph's call :-) Ralph will punt in despair with the next bad model suite. (there's definitely some history with that, LOL) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Today was chaos with the budget address so I haven’t been able to read anything. We still looking at a decent shot of a storm in mid to late month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Today was chaos with the budget address so I haven’t been able to read anything. We still looking at a decent shot of a storm in mid to late month? Read the @psuhoffman post that I re-posted on the previous page… Again, buckle up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z GFS gets snow to CTP, with more from the turnpike on north for early next week this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z Euro has a rain changing to snow scenario for early next week for our region with minor accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6z GFS also has a rain to snow scenario with a rapidly strengthening low that gets down to the 970s just before our latitude. The track this run rides up I-95 & crushes most of CTP this run, with heavy amounts the further north & west in our region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Another cold morning 18 here every morning seems to be getting colder this week. Yesterday it dropped to 20 after I posted that it was 22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Another cold morning 18 here every morning seems to be getting colder this week. Yesterday it dropped to 20 after I posted that it was 22. Same. I bottomed out Monday night at 21 after posting it was 22 when I left the house. This morning was 23 when I left. Much less frost this morning though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 19 this AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 For PD weekend, the 0z & 6z GFS both had coastal storms that hit the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 19 this AM. 21 in Marysville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: For PD weekend, the 0z & 6z GFS both had coastal storms that hit the Mid Atlantic. If it played out like that, this would be one where we would have to do model PBP's even at night. Miller A with cold air in place is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Same. I bottomed out Monday night at 21 after posting it was 22 when I left the house. This morning was 23 when I left. Much less frost this morning though. Rgem was way too cold for this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond! If we can score even a little bit with early next week, while tracking something like what the GFS has for PD weekend…. Oh my…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Today was chaos with the budget address so I haven’t been able to read anything. We still looking at a decent shot of a storm in mid to late month?You write the bit in there about making reefer legal?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6z GEFS is on board for early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You write the bit in there about making reefer legal? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Nah but a bunch of other bits. I wish I could claim it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Today should be our 16th straight above normal day...this streak should reach at least 20 days before our first chance at a below normal day since January 22nd by next Monday or Tuesday. Records for today: High 61 (2008) / Low 2 below (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Snow 10.0" (1895) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ukie is a huge hit. This is snow depth because they don't offer snowfall for some odd reason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6z Eps north...way north from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 With MDT getting below freezing this AM that makes 5 straight sub-freezing lows putting it in a tie for the second longest streak of sub-freezing lows in the last year/since February 2023 (if I saw the records correctly.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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