mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z Canadian ensemble day 8 & 16 Your maps are prettier so I don't know if what I'm seeing on the TT maps will show up very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, mitchnick said: The Geps is trending toward the -Nao ridge bleeding south just as the Gefs. Put this Geps 500mb anomalies from 12z today post 348hrs+. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024020512&fh=348 I’ve seen the ensembles & just posted them. I see nothing but exactly what we should be rooting for if you like Winter Storm chances in February. This is a beautiful pattern on the way & there has been no can kicking. All we do now is wait for the specific opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 My main focus for now is trying to get this pattern change off to a nice start if the 12th to 14th period can work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ve seen the ensembles & just posted them. I see nothing but exactly what we should be rooting for if you like Winter Storm chances in February. This is a beautiful pattern on the way & there has been no can kicking. All we do now is wait for the specific opportunities. I agree that the pattern looks gorgeous, but that pattern off both the Eps and Geps shouldn't result in the 7 day precip anomalies reflected on these maps if there weren't a sufficient number of members showing ridging pressing everything south imho. My opinion, so I could be wrong for the reason but the anomaly maps speak for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I maintain my same general outlook on things that I laid out last Wednesday evening. Now that we’re about 5 days onward from this previous post, the regular op and ensemble guidance is seeing the transition in terms of teleconnections (tanking NAO/AO/EPO) but I don’t think they’re anywhere near handling features, which is likely why we’re seeing a lot of run to run discontinuity. Something storm wise is probably going to come out of that period centered on V-Day. Whether or not we have the pattern dialed in cold enough in time for that particular window to snow on us is highly debatable. There’s also multiple disturbances in that timeframe as well for guidance to decipher. The system progged to cut up and over us at the end of this week on/near the 10th would figure to set some kind of edge that the follow-up that has occasionally been progged as a snowstorm in C-PA would run. 12z Euro cut another, stronger system prior to V-day but would appear to have another wave at 240 angled fairly well to give us something decent beyond. But I guess that’s also a key point, we’re still talking D8-10+. Another thing I don’t think the regular operational/ensemble guidance is handling well yet is the transitioning MJO. Given the even further bottoming out of the SOI, we may not experience as much of a loop back in 7 and could eventually go stronger into 8 and 1 even though models aren’t really doing that right now. Not sure how the actual MJO progression is going the last couple days either, as something seems up with the MJO site (models aren’t updated past the 3rd). There’s much to be sorted out, and I’m just taking an along for the ride approach in the interim… not getting too high or low on run to run model trends. I’m not completely all in like some (or all out), but I’m confident we will see the transition to a favorable eastern US winter pattern down the stretch and there will be opportunities to be had. Thanks for the detailed post. I have a good feeling that this place will be very busy in the coming weeks with all of the potential on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Fwiw. These snowfall anomalies are from last night’s Eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: My main focus for now is trying to get this pattern change off to a nice start if the 12th to 14th period can work out. You may be getting your wish. Precip signature off 18z Eps at 144hrs sure favors a further south track than 12z. I would post slp members, but it's still a shotgun spread so I think precip field is a better tool at this point. Temps still not much different than 12z however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, Atomixwx said: If they were smart, they'd off-load the seven foot freak of nature who couldn't stay healthy if his life depend upon it. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I've called for that move for years. Sixers aren't going to win with or without him. Might as well make a big move and go in a different direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Bliz, good thing you are willing to believe the Gfs under 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 54 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bliz, good thing you are willing to believe the Gfs under 10 days. Lol, I really want to believe this 0z GFS for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 0z GFS then has a follow up smaller snow event a few days later to tack on a few more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0z Euro is on board for the early next week chance. The low really intensifies off of the DelMarVa this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 this Am. Coldest morning in weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z Gfs pulls the rug out for us southern folks next week, but is consistent with the 0z Gefs and Geps. Gefs and Geps look better for a southern system at the end of their runs. Eps look better for entire forum next week but not real impressed beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z Gefs also favor central and northern PA for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs pulls the rug out for us southern folks next week, but is consistent with the 0z Gefs and Geps. Gefs and Geps look better for a southern system at the end of their runs. Eps look better for entire forum next week but not real impressed beyond that. This was close to being something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 20 this Am. Coldest morning in weeks. You weren’t kidding with the Canadian handling the radiational cooling temps better. I busted quite low here. 22 when I left the house and might go even lower yet. NWS already slashed my low for tonight to 22 as well ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z GFS shifted a bit north overnight & this run was a good snow hit most most of CTP to roughly north of the turnpike. All of us are still in the game for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 47 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You weren’t kidding with the Canadian handling the radiational cooling temps better. I busted quite low here. 22 when I left the house and might go even lower yet. NWS already slashed my low for tonight to 22 as well ha. It just seems to be in its wheelhouse with these events though it ends up a bit too low at times. We got down to 19 eventually and it looks like it snowed with the heavy frost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Sunny skies should be the rule through Thursday. Chillier today with temps remaining in the 30's but warming trend starts tomorrow topping out well into the 50's by Saturday. Shower chances increase on Sunday night and much colder air appears likely with even some wintry weather chances next week. Records for today: High 66 (2008) / Low 6 below (1895) / Precipitation 3.00" (1896) / Snow 12.3" (2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z Gefs have continued the progression of the -Nao ridging building south into the Great Lakes just like the Gfs operational has been showing. Question now is whether the Geps and Eps follow. We'll see. All 3 ensembles do continue to show BN precip for the last 7 days of their runs, unfortunately. So in that respect, they already agree. That fact does suggest to me that Geps and Eps will cave to Gefs with the ridge. In practical terms, however, it probably doesn't matter how they get dry. Extended Eps do show AN precip beginning the last few days of February into March, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z Eps look flatter, hence better, for next week imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Eps look flatter, hence better, for next week imho. As we enter the better period, gonna watch the trough axis and hope that we get just enough bend for them to come up and not slide right. Stoudt NAO could be too much of a good thing. Just something I'm keepin an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 this morning in Maytown. Frosty start to yet another beautiful, sunny day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: As we enter the better period, gonna watch the trough axis and hope that we get just enough bend for them to come up and not slide right. Stoudt NAO could be too much of a good thing. Just something I'm keepin an eye on. I think we're going to be in a dry period for an extended period, short of clippers, after next week so I really hope it can work out for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think we're going to be in a dry period for an extended period, short of clippers, after next week so I really hope it can work out for all. As I've been casually watching the evolution, that's been in the back of my mind (and some others as well). Trough axis is an important feature along with the cold. Of late, and IMO its been a tad east on the medium range looks, and lacking latitude in the east. I dare say a tad of WAR could help, but thats a dangerous wish to ask for. Soon enough wavelenghts will start to change as spring emerges, and if we could hold this look for a while, who knows....but thats getting pretty far ahead of what lies in front of us. Really just shows how difficult it can be to get a really GOOD look pattern wise. So so many ways to just miss. Not that we didnt know that, but it's its so true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Today is the anniversary of the great Feb 2010 storm, part 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yesterday's 12Z RGEM was quite close for colder/more rural areas this AM. It was to bit too cold in earlier iterations. Here is todays predict for tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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