mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 And look what's showing up again at the end of the Gfs run. 4th in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, mitchnick said: Honestly, I just don't get some of the posts in other forums. The weeklies look great, but ensembles and operationals don't imho. A real fascination with upper-level maps and trying to predict eventual ground truth. Not my expertise so cannot suggest anyone is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Ukie looks to show suppression thru its 144hr run and beyond that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Honestly, I just don't get some of the posts in other forums. The weeklies look great, but ensembles and operationals don't imho. The panic room in the MA forum is almost as busy now as the LR thread. Have no fear, people are starting to bail en masse. I for one, remain optimistic. Mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I'm ready for warmth. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: The panic room in the MA forum is almost as busy now as the LR thread. Have no fear, people are starting to bail en masse. I for one, remain optimistic. Mostly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And look what's showing up again at the end of the Gfs run. 4th in a row. I'm starting to grow inpatient lol but with this look we have to get something I would think at some point between Feb 15 and March 15. That's a pretty classic look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm starting to grow inpatient lol but with this look we have to get something I would think at some point between Feb 15 and March 15. That's a pretty classic look for us. At 240hrs, that may be the look, but there's a NW'ly flow over PA, so that limits us to clippers. Then I believe it degrades to a Ridge extending south from the deeply negative NAO into a similar look as hour 0 on the 12z Gefs. That's the way it looks to me now based on everything, not just ensembles, and considering the prevalent pattern we've been in. Iow, I rate the chances of the pattern reverting back to the look we've had for the past 2 weeks as high until we get closer in time to the 15th to reassess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Going to be another day exceeding the forecast high - already up to 45 at 1pm in Maytown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 28 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm starting to grow inpatient lol but with this look we have to get something I would think at some point between Feb 15 and March 15. That's a pretty classic look for us. Let's that the GEFS for example...it is just slowing bleeding to a point where I would say the pattern change (per se) has evolved into a colder regime on this map but colder and cold are 2 different things. If we were in a NS dominated flow, I would expect it to be much colder than this but if spilt stream, then we are fighting temps with this look. Timed right, we are good, timed wrong we are not. More looking at temps in Southern Canada vs over PA. Don't blame anyone for moving back a week on expectations now vs the 13th-18th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Going to be another day exceeding the forecast high - already up to 45 at 1pm in Maytown. It's windy though so feels much cooler in the sun than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gefs total qpf thru 366hrs. One has to be concerned about precip imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs total qpf thru 366hrs. One has to be concerned about precip imho. Still think our best shot comes after that but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro an extreme cutter for 2/12 but could be what we need to actually open the door to cold air drainage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Euro an extreme cutter for 2/12 but could be what we need to actually open the door to cold air drainage. Shocking, isn't it. But yesterday's snow have been a big problem for me, so no complaints this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Shocking, isn't it. But yesterday's snow have been a big problem for me, so no complaints this time. One suite is suppression, another a Motor City Cutter. Large differences in timing of NS vorts on the EC and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/3/2024 at 9:46 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern change potential? I maintain my same general outlook on things that I laid out last Wednesday evening. On 1/31/2024 at 5:56 PM, MAG5035 said: The reversal/tanking of the SOI continues to gain steam. The negative daily values the last few days are easily the most negative of the whole winter season. Much more in line of what is typically seen during Nino’s of stronger magnitude. And as such, the MJO forecasts continue to look set up for an eventual 8-1-2 run after its loop around in 7 the next several days. Further aligning signals are the currently very positive NAO/AO reversing and eventually developing a stronger +PNA and -EPO. Indications for a pattern shift to favor a more wintry regime in the eastern US later in Feb are strong. I said the other day I favored V-day onward for this to start talking hold and that’s about the consensus of most other folks that talk pattern here and in other sub forums. So I don’t really have much to add in that regard that hasn’t been already discussed and mapped out daily. So with that said, I feel like people’s expectations and patience could be tested in the interim. The opening 10 to possibly up to 15 days of the month look really warm.. a necessary evil unfortunately as the trough starts west and eventually shifts to set up shop in the east near the end of the regular operational ensemble guidance range as we build more Greenland ridging in the NAO realm and Western US/E pac ridging in the PNA/EPO realm. Once the influence of whatever ends up spinning around the SE coast early next week moves away, there’s going to be a period of more significant ridging and + temps that take over for a time as a trough first sets up in the west and + heights are able to build the rest of the way into the East. Here’s how we look on the ensembles the next 14 days… This pattern change is a matter of when and not if, IMO.. so what we’ll be trying to nail down the next week or so is how fast/slow this occurs. I think there’s still much TBD with respect to that, since the more wholesale shift is still mostly out past D10 on guidance. This change could even come faster, but it might not… which is why I mentioned it could test people’s patience/expectations. Especially if we line up a storm window within a few days either side of Valentine’s Day and we’re not quite there yet to give many folks a widespread snow event out of it, for example. So we’ll see.. I am certainly positive on the prospects of a good later season winter run, but keeping expectations in check. Now that we’re about 5 days onward from this previous post, the regular op and ensemble guidance is seeing the transition in terms of teleconnections (tanking NAO/AO/EPO) but I don’t think they’re anywhere near handling features, which is likely why we’re seeing a lot of run to run discontinuity. Something storm wise is probably going to come out of that period centered on V-Day. Whether or not we have the pattern dialed in cold enough in time for that particular window to snow on us is highly debatable. There’s also multiple disturbances in that timeframe as well for guidance to decipher. The system progged to cut up and over us at the end of this week on/near the 10th would figure to set some kind of edge that the follow-up that has occasionally been progged as a snowstorm in C-PA would run. 12z Euro cut another, stronger system prior to V-day but would appear to have another wave at 240 angled fairly well to give us something decent beyond. But I guess that’s also a key point, we’re still talking D8-10+. Another thing I don’t think the regular operational/ensemble guidance is handling well yet is the transitioning MJO. Given the even further bottoming out of the SOI, we may not experience as much of a loop back in 7 and could eventually go stronger into 8 and 1 even though models aren’t really doing that right now. Not sure how the actual MJO progression is going the last couple days either, as something seems up with the MJO site (models aren’t updated past the 3rd). There’s much to be sorted out, and I’m just taking an along for the ride approach in the interim… not getting too high or low on run to run model trends. I’m not completely all in like some (or all out), but I’m confident we will see the transition to a favorable eastern US winter pattern down the stretch and there will be opportunities to be had. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Since 2000 using the 1991-2020 average temperature for December through February which is 32.8 degrees here in Chester County - we have seen 10 winters that have averaged below normal temps.... but none have been below normal since the DFJ of 2015 - winters with below normal DJF have been 2000/2001/2003/2004/2005/2009/2010/2011/2014/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 To be fair, the climate of Pittsburgh and areas nearby, with a small exception to upslope areas, are basically Kentucky climate-wise. It probably is spring there lol.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, ChescoWx said: Since 2000 using the 1991-2020 average temperature for December through February which is 32.8 degrees here in Chester County - we have seen 10 winters that have averaged below normal temps.... but none have been below normal since the DFJ of 2015 - winters with below normal DJF have been 2000/2001/2003/2004/2005/2009/2010/2011/2014/2015 9 straight AN winters. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, TimB said: 9 straight AN winters. Hmmm. Was that you on Action Weather 4? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Was that you on Action Weather 4? That’s none other than the great Jeff “snow showers” Verszyla. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 In comparing the NCEI average post observation temperature adjustments applied to the actual recorded averages recorded by the NWS Chester County Coop data show the average temperature data was adjusted downward every single year from 1895 through 2004 or for 110 consecutive years. The greatest adjustments were reductions in average temperatures of 2.76 degrees in 1945 / 2.69 degrees in 1943 /2.62 degrees in 1942 / 2.58 degrees in 1951. Conversely. In the 18 years since 2005 every year has been adjusted upwards with the exception of 2019 with the greatest adjustments upward to temperatures being applied to 2018 +1.87 degrees and 2005 with a +0.66 degree adjustment. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/PA-029/tavg/ytd/12/1895-2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: In comparing the NCEI average post observation temperature adjustments applied to the actual recorded averages recorded by the NWS Chester County Coop data show the average temperature data was adjusted downward every single year from 1895 through 2004 or for 110 consecutive years. The greatest adjustments were reductions in average temperatures of 2.76 degrees in 1945 / 2.69 degrees in 1943 /2.62 degrees in 1942 / 2.58 degrees in 1951. Conversely. In the 18 years since 2005 every year has been adjusted upwards with the exception of 2019 with the greatest adjustments upward to temperatures being applied to 2018 +1.87 degrees and 2005 with a +0.66 degree adjustment. Tinfoilhat.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: To be fair, the climate of Pittsburgh and areas nearby, with a small exception to upslope areas, are basically Kentucky climate-wise. It probably is spring there lol. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk No spring fling on this side of the mountains today haha, it’s only 33ºF and cloudy currently after reaching 36ºF earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 No spring fling on this side of the mountains today haha, it’s only 33ºF and cloudy currently after reaching 36ºF earlier. I don't think we hit freezing up here. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: No spring fling on this side of the mountains today haha, it’s only 33ºF and cloudy currently after reaching 36ºF earlier. 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I don't think we hit freezing up here. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Seems like Snow Showers Verszyla is pointing at DuBois so maybe it is warmer there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Seems like Snow Showers Verszyla is pointing at Dubois so maybe it is warmer there. That screen capture took place two seconds before Action Weather 4 placed their tagline of "F--- These Places."Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Also, Verszyla is the most Pittsburgh name ever. Of course that's a Pittsburgh weather guy. "Today's forecast is brought to you by Arn City Light and Paczki."Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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