Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps still has a signal for early next week, but I highly doubt yesterday's 12z run will come close to verifying snowfall wise. Who knows, literally everything is on the table from cutter, slider, to perfect track snowstorm. It might be 2 light events or 1 stronger event…no model has figured out this period yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Both 0z and 6z runs of the Gfs end with a monster ridge in the east. Recall 18z ended the same way. We're talking the 2/20-21 period, right smack in the middle of the "great period." Something is screwed up. EDIT: I continue to not like the monster Greenland ridge as it's bound to bleed south and negate all the good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Here is the 0z EPS for early next week. Literally everything is on the table. Look at the various low locations at just this one time stamp. Here is the best precip panel for the period & the snow over those few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Another cold morning 22 here. When that sun went down yesterday evening, that temp. fell like a rock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The ensembles All continue to have a Great looks at the end of their 15/16 day runs. Big game hunting season is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 here this Am. Looks like MDT made 25 and THV 21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This thread is becoming a war between the best possible outcome and the worst possible outcome. The answer likely lies somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, anotherman said: This thread is becoming a war between the best possible outcome and the worst possible outcome. The answer likely lies somewhere in between. Good point, lots of upside potential, but the answer will probably be in between. Either way, we should have lots of tracking in our future…wins & losses in our backyards are to be determined during the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 24 here this Am. Looks like MDT made 25 and THV 21. 25 for my low here in Marysville with frost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Low is 23 degrees with another decent frost. Hi is supposed to be 43 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 this morning in Maytown. It's going to be another beautiful day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Back to back morning lows of 26 here. My P&C is also 26 for the next two nights. No precip in sight. MDT rockin' a cool +9 departure to start the month. Should be another gorgeous day, perfect for sitting behind a desk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 25 this morning in Maytown. It's going to be another beautiful day. For you, Rgem was 3-4 degrees too cold, other suites between 1 and 7 degrees too warm. HRRR was the closest of the ones I looked at showing you hitting 26. Roofus not running right now apparently. Sample taken from yesterday's 18Z runs. Have some extra interest in this because the Rgem is so much lower than other suites the next 2 nights. Rad cooling induced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good point, lots of upside potential, but the answer will probably be in between. Either way, we should have lots of tracking in our future…wins & losses in our backyards are to be determined during the next several weeks. FWIW, I'm finally starting to believe we are about to get into some fun, or at least trackin it. You've been all over it, and I hope we get the goods. Seeing overnight and morning GFS keeps hope alive and I give the GFS credit for medium range as its sniffed out a few that have verified at some degree or another, so I'm dipping my toes back into the weather water as it looks like after this week, we may be having some chances. Just hoping we don't go straight to suppression depression, as while we have a longwave trought getting established, the southern slider idea has some merit in the things to worry about dept. ENS guidance as you suggest, appears to keep cold closer to us and looks to be rather stable. I'll take that as a win, as we've not seen a pattern "lock in", and for now the latter 1/2 of ens guidance shows this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 If we start to see some real artic cold setting up on the MR and LR op's/eventual ground truth and we do have a 2-4 week period of "real winter temps" as predicted by some of the LR forecasters, it is going to be one of the bigger shocks to the public that they have had in a long time. Whether it snows a small amount or a lot, an extended period of true cold in late Feb or early March will seem much worse after our recent stretch of mild late Feb's. The last truly cold second half of February was in 2015 so an 8-year hiatus. March 2019 had a 5 day period of impressive cold as well but nothing to the extent of what is being suggested by some LR forecasters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we start to see some real artic cold setting up on the MR and LR op's/eventual ground truth and we do have a 2-4 week period of "real winter temps" as predicted by some of the LR forecasters, it is going to be one of the bigger shocks to the public that they have had in a long time. Whether it snows a small amount or a lot, an extended period of true cold in late Feb or early March will seem much worse after our recent stretch of mild late Feb's. The last truly cold second half of February was in 2015 so an 8-year hiatus. March 2019 had a 5 day period of impressive cold as well but nothing to the extent of what is being suggested by some LR forecasters. BN temps with BN snow in a Niño is every weenie's nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, mitchnick said: BN temps with BN snow in a Niño is every weenie's nightmare. If it stays below or near freezing, especially if windy, for a longish stretch I will not hear the end of the complaints from clients and friends. People are already starting their spring flings and doing stuff in the yard assuming this year will be like the last 8. Not going to stick my neck out and say whether it snows a lot or not. Not sure anyone on this earth has the ability to predict that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we start to see some real artic cold setting up on the MR and LR op's/eventual ground truth and we do have a 2-4 week period of "real winter temps" as predicted by some of the LR forecasters, it is going to be one of the bigger shocks to the public that they have had in a long time. Whether it snows a small amount or a lot, an extended period of true cold in late Feb or early March will seem much worse after our recent stretch of mild late Feb's. The last truly cold second half of February was in 2015 so an 8-year hiatus. March 2019 had a 5 day period of impressive cold as well but nothing to the extent of what is being suggested by some LR forecasters. It will be a shock for sure if it verified. As long as we don't have those winds it will be easier to deal with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If it stays below or near freezing, especially if windy, for a longish stretch I will not hear the end of the complaints from clients and friends. People are already starting their spring flings and doing stuff in the yard assuming this year will be like the last 8. Not going to stick my neck out and say whether it snows a lot or not. Not sure anyone on this earth has the ability to predict that. I don't think the forum wants to hear about your "spring fling" tmi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I don't think the forum wants to hear about your "spring fling" tmi. Fortunately for you, it is not me it is "people" :-). Saw a line for mulch when passing Lowes yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 About halfway through 12Z GFS. At that point, things are suppressed and tough to break that until 500 changes a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Regardless of suppression, still no cold through mid-month. Lows the morning of the 13th are above freezing in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: About halfway through 12Z GFS. At that point, things are suppressed and tough to break that until 500 changes a bit. Other than an unimpressive clipper at 240hrs on the Gfs, nothing on the Gfs or Canadian thru 246hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Other than an unimpressive clipper at 240hrs on the Gfs, nothing on the Gfs or Canadian thru 246hrs. And that is white rain (clipper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 264 looking interesting as to setup. Colder air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Would need some interaction with that NS energy to "bend the curve" a bit at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 No interaction through 300 (snowing in Mexico though) despite what I thought was a chance a day earlier. Northern Stream dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No interaction through 300 (snowing in Mexico though) despite what I thought was a chance a day earlier. Norther Stream dominated. Yep. Precipitable water says it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yep. Precipitable water says it all. And despite it getting colder that 3rd week, still no dump of artic air into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And despite it getting colder that 3rd week, still no dump of artic air into the US. Honestly, I just don't get some of the posts in other forums. The weeklies look great, but ensembles and operationals don't imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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