Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I swear. I look at the operational Gfs with its exotic solutions that always find a way to either deny us snow or greatly underperform and just feel like throwing in the towel and accepting that this winter is simply a smaller turd to last year's diarrhea, call it another fail, and just walk away. The GFS changes so drastically each time, but my worry/take is that at no time are temps here cold enough to be comfortable with any solution. The cold on the GFS is like this week's cold snap coming up....no SW influence. Once we get any kind of storm nearby, the cold caves. Very LR map but it is representative of other periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS changes so drastically each time, but my worry/take is that at no time are temps here cold enough to be comfortable with any solution. The cold on the GFS is like this week's cold snap coming up....no SW influence. Once we get any kind of storm nearby, the cold caves. Very LR map but it is representative of other periods. Like you, @mitchnick & I just posted… the GFS is swinging wildly from run to run…no reason to worry or get excited by anything it shows, especially beyond day 7. All of the ensembles are locked in on a pattern change by the 13th with no can kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Like you, @mitchnick & I just posted… the GFS is swinging wildly from run to run…no reason to worry or get excited by anything it shows, especially beyond day 7. All of the ensembles are locked in on a pattern change by the 13th with no can kick. Not worried per se but would like to some true winter cold show in an op run at some point. All of this is too far out to worry...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 For good luck Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Look what's starting to happen in the mid west at the end of the GEFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Look what's starting to happen in the mid west at the end of the GEFS lol. I warned about that today when the Geps was showing a very strong - Nao that we risked a full latitude block what is also shown on the operational 18z run. It's just not going to be as simple as the weeklies suggest. Can't say it enough imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Look what's starting to happen in the mid west at the end of the GEFS lol. I see great blocking up top, an undercutting STJ & a 50/50 low. I am not concerned in the least with Super week ridging showing in the upper Midwest on day 16, Also, yesterday the ensembles tried to do the same thing as what you showed, but it was gone by 12z today across all ensembles by day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I gassed up my snowblower today… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 degrees this morning. Heavy frost on the ground and the vehicles. Back out on the river fishing again for smallmouths. Water temperature 43. Snowblower is patiently waiting for some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, mitchnick said: I warned about that today when the Geps was showing a very strong - Nao that we risked a full latitude block what is also shown on the operational 18z run. It's just not going to be as simple as the weeklues suggest. Can't say it enough imho. Yea. I felt better a week ago. 2m temps aren't that cold at the end of the gefs. As we get to the end of the month we need decent - anomalies for snow. Atleast a long the M/ D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Yea. I felt better a week ago. 2m temps aren't that cold at the end of the gefs. As we get to the end of the month we need decent - anomalies for snow. Atleast a long the M/ D. Cold is step 1. Until I see it, the gas stays in the can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Yea. I felt better a week ago. 2m temps aren't that cold at the end of the gefs. As we get to the end of the month we need decent - anomalies for snow. Atleast a long the M/ D. I started posting my concerns yesterday and I feel no better with today's modeling advertising different problems, none of which bring us any closer to legit snow threats. Euro 12z looked decent, but I doubt that threat holds in light of the Euro's performance at that range. Like I said in a recent post, if the Gefs are correct, we should be seeing similar patterns on the operational Gfs at least 1 or 2 runs out of 4 daily runs for the period after 2/14. Instead, all it shows are some of the same crap patterns we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I see great blocking up top, an undercutting STJ & a 50/50 low. I am not concerned in the least with Super week ridging showing in the upper Midwest on day 16, Also, yesterday the ensembles tried to do the same thing as what you showed, but it was gone by 12z today across all ensembles by day 16. I love your optimism. I'm starting to have some reservations though around the upcoming pattern. Bob Chill in the MA thread has been very Meh on the period coming up. I put alot of stock into what he says. Basically he's said this winter has showed its hand. Some winters want to snow and other don't. It's been a real battle to get snow this winter. Temps don't seem that cold on the ensembles. Now I hope I'm wrong and we all get shallacked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cold is step 1. Until I see it, the gas stays in the can. And honestly I'm tired of looking at H5 maps lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: And honestly I'm tired of looking at H5 maps lol I want to look at maps where people actually live lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I want to look at maps where people actually live lol I am not punting snow chances but greatest pattern in "x" years is still up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I am not punting snow chances but greatest pattern in "x" years is still up for debate. I think we snow but will it be an epic period? Not sure about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I want to look at maps where people actually live lol Lol, same here. I’m hoping the threat on the 12th to 14th gets us some frozen to track. As @psuhoffman said recently, the H5 looks that we are seeing don’t come around often. Many times there are several years in between when we get these kind of pattern chances. The long range guidance was consistently showing the potential & now the ensembles have the pattern progression beginning on the 12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Disclaimer: These 15/16 day ensemble maps are just being shown to show a trend & to just be a tool to monitor pattern potential… Anyway, today is the first time since the last snowstorm on January 20th that each of the 3 ensembles have shown the “blue” pushing this far south into northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Breaking: Embiid to have surgery and miss extended time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Good night for radiational cooling - already down to 34 from my high of 52. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Breaking: Embiid to have surgery and miss extended time. It’s a shame, hopefully he can be back towards the end of the season for the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Finally, Gfs produces decent fantasy storm that will never happen unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro says completely bye-bye to any storm, Eps suggest otherwise. Geps snowfall made a big jump. I wish I had slept later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I fell asleep early last night & missed this 0z coastal storm on the GFS for the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6z GFS has a different evolution for this period but still snows on us to a lesser extent than 0z, but on the 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I fell asleep early last night & missed this 0z coastal storm on the GFS for the 13th. Gone on 6z and replaced with a much weaker system. It's a mirage anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GFS has a different evolution for this period but still snows on us to a lesser extent than 0z, but on the 14th. Beat me! Meh, I went from 14" to 1.4". Gotta love all this great technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Beat me! Meh, I went from 14" to 1.4". Gotta love all this great technology. I agree…All of the models are still trying to figure out the 12th to 14th. Pattern changes can really throw models out of whack. Add in development of blocking, & the models really go off of the rails. For example, look at the Euro from 22z yesterday with a low in Ohio. The Euro 0z run for the exact same time has a low sliding off of the Carolina coast that misses us. Bottom line, this will take a few days to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree…All of the models are still trying to figure out the 12th to 14th. Pattern changes can really throw models out of whack. Add in development of blocking, & the models really go off of the rails. For example, look at the Euro from 22z yesterday with a low in Ohio. The Euro 0z run for the exact same time has a low sliding off of the Carolina coast that misses us. Bottom line, this will take a few days to resolve. Eps still has a signal for early next week, but I highly doubt yesterday's 12z run will come close to verifying snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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