Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I had my first sub-freezing night in nearly 2 weeks this morning. Several more incoming this week. Flip side...normal high for today in Lanco is 39. It's currently 48, which I would consider a well AN departure.i If we had a gyre approaching from the South, up the coast, our temps this week would support a snow storm but yea highs the last two days have been quite mild. Maybe a little lower a few days during the work week. Not going to say we are near being below normal next week as to mdt temps but pleasantly surprised they made 26 this am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: If we had a gyre approaching from the South, up the coast, our temps this week would support a snow storm but yea highs the last two days have been quite mild. Maybe a little lower a few days during the work week. Not going to say we are near being below normal next week as to mdt temps but pleasantly surprised they made 26 this am. One thing that is becoming more and more evident with each passing day - big discrepancy in how it feels in the sun vs. shade. I was just out in the sun and it's genuinely warm. Very chilly in the shade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: One thing that is becoming more and more evident with each passing day - big discrepancy in how it feels in the sun vs. shade. I was just out in the sun and it's genuinely warm. Very chilly in the shade. Yea, sun burn day today if not careful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12z Euro is nice on the 1 day of the winter I don't want it. But everyone else enjoy for 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12z Euro is nice on the 1 day of the winter I don't want it. But everyone else enjoy for 12 hrs. The Euro has a Nice front end thump of snow on the 12th. Then it changes to a mix & rain for the southern tier. The low transfers a bit late for us this run to keep us all frozen, but we have a long way to go. I would take this to start off the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro has a Nice front end thump of snow on the 12th. Then it changes to a mix & rain for the southern tier. The low transfers a bit late for us this run to keep us all frozen, but we have a long way to go. I would take this to start off the new pattern. Here is the 12z Euro snow map for this run for this potential event on the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Beautiful day. Nice to see the sun this weekend after weeks of cloudiness. Temp just hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Can't post MU's latest discussion, but he does expect one last opportunity for a snowstorm between 2/20 and 3/5, followed by an abrupt flip to spring. He said spring will arrive a couple of weeks early this year. These were his thoughts posted last night. If someone can post his discussion, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12z Euro snow map for this run for this potential event on the 12th. Do you have access to the Kuchera map by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, TimB said: Do you have access to the Kuchera map by chance? Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16. Look at that blocking on day 16… Same theme on the 12z GEFS. Better pattern arrives by the 13th & is going strong with impressive Greenland blocking by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Good signal on the 12z EPS for the 12th to 14th potential. The precip panels seem to indicate a flatter potential, but the mean low positions have the same general idea with a western track low transferring to the coast. Long way to go, but we might finally have something specific to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Good signal on the 12z EPS for the 12th to 14th potential. The precip panels seem to indicate a flatter potential, but the mean low positions have the same general idea with a western track low transferring to the coast. Long way to go, but we might finally have something specific to track. Here is the 12z EPS snow just for this 12th to 14th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12z EPS snow just for this 12th to 14th period. Can you start it 24 hrs earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Can you start it 24 hrs earlier? This runs from Sunday evening until Wednesday evening, but give me a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Can you start it 24 hrs earlier? Here you go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Copped a cool pic of the clouds this morning in the AZ backyard... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Beautiful day. Nice to see the sun this weekend after weeks of cloudiness. Temp just hit 50. 52 here. Cut the tall grass and hibiscus bushes back. Save me from some march work. My neighbor has an outdoor heated pool and they are swimming in it. Lol. Crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Probably overdone 2-5 degrees but still.... \ \\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here you go Looking at the Eps more closely, there must be 2 camps wrt the storm threat because there are 2 slugs of moisture with a lull of 12-18hrs in between. That 72 hour period picks up both. Since there's only 1 storm, I think that makes the snowfall maps overstated/too high. I say this after letting the 6hr precip maps loop. There's a precip peak around 198hrs then another around 222hrs. By the way, even though it may seem like it, I'm not trying to poo-poo every threat. I am, however, trying to figure out exactly what the models are really telling us because so many times model misinterpretations are honestly made that leed to erroneous expectations. I know because I've made many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the Eps more closely, there must be 2 camps wrt the storm threat because there are 2 slugs of moisture with a lull of 12-18hrs in between. That 72 hour period picks up both. Since there's only 1 storm, I think that makes the snowfall maps overstated/too high. I say this after letting the 6hr precip maps loop. There's a precip peak around 198hrs then another around 222hrs. By the way, even though it may seem like it, I'm not trying to poo-poo every threat. I am, however, trying to figure out exactly what the models are really telling us because so many times model misinterpretations are honestly made that leed to erroneous expectations. I know because I've made many. Either way, whether there are 1 or 2 waves in this period, it is the beginning of the new pattern & certainly 1000000% better than what we are dealing with during this current week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18Z GFS has a gulf low forming at 192. Air over PA is not overly cold though. The 2/12 storm was a southern slider rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Went on a 5 mile walk and I wore shorts. I wish I’d worn a t shirt instead of a hoodie - got quite sweaty. Outdoor temp in direct sun at a bank said 68. My high was 53. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Two areas of low pressure as we get into V-Day Eve. Still questionable air over PA. Every run of the GFS is like a totally new movie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Colder air pressing into PA for V-Day but the low-pressure complex has no mechanism to do anything but scoot out to the east. On to later Feb for this run of the GFS. PDIII or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Two areas of low pressure as we get into V-Day Eve. Still questionable air over PA. Every run of the GFS is like a totally new movie right now. Yes, huge change on the GFS. 12z had a low over Cleveland & the 18z has a low over New Orleans at the exact same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, huge change on the GFS. 12z had a low over Cleveland & the 18z has a low over New Orleans at the exact same time. Would you want to be stuck over Cleveland? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I swear. I look at the operational Gfs with its exotic solutions that always find a way to either deny us snow or greatly underperform and just feel like throwing in the towel and accepting that this winter is simply a smaller turd to last year's diarrhea, call it another fail, and just walk away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I swear. I look at the operational Gfs with its exotic solutions that always find a way to either deny us snow or greatly underperform and just feel like throwing in the towel and accepting that this winter is simply a smaller turd to last year's diarrhea, call it another fail, and just walk away. Lol, just look at the changes that I just posted above with the changes at day 8 just from 12z to 18z…. I think this upcoming blocking is frying the GFS circuits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On top of the snow debacle, the Gfs ends with the attached 5H pattern. Nah, that would never happen, would it? Or should I ask whether our current pig Canadian block that has screwed us for weeks would ever happen again? See where I'm going with this folks? Where are all these great patterns advertised on the ensembles and long range? They shouid be showing up on the Gfs operational on at least 1 or 2 out of the 4 daily runs by now imho. Instead, we're getting the same vomit we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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