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Central PA Winter 23/24


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17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@mitchnick should be happy to see that the 0z ensembles are all looking good at the end of their 15/16 day runs.

 The EPS backed off on the week ridging “yellow”. Now the closest yellow is in western Iowa at the end of the EPS.

All 3 continue to show strong Greenland blocking with the STJ undercutting.

IMG_4872.png

IMG_4871.png

IMG_4870.png

Yes, all the ensembles have, so it looks like we may be in the process of winning that battle. But we're still losing the war for snow since all 3 ensembles at the end of their runs still have the bulk of the precip in the south missing us. There is still time for that period to be a legit threat, of course, but we better start seeing runs showing a better ridge in the west and precip spreading north soon.

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47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes, all the ensembles have, so it looks like we may be in the process of winning that battle. But we're still losing the war for snow since all 3 ensembles at the end of their runs still have the bulk of the precip in the south missing us. There is still time for that period to be a legit threat, of course, but we better start seeing runs showing a better ridge in the west and precip spreading north soon.

So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook.

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Listen, I agree that this stretch sucks (good Maple sugaring weather though for the next few days).  And I agree nothing is guaranteed.  However, I am going to go with what many have said before.  If we can't get snow with the look we have for late February/early March with a -NAO, +PNA, El Nino, Strat warm, what are we doing here?  

If we fail, Phillies baseball is not far away and that's fine with me.

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13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook.

I can't recall if that's the right page of the handbook since I ripped that page out of mine in disgust years ago.

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Listen, I agree that this stretch sucks (good Maple sugaring weather though for the next few days).  And I agree nothing is guaranteed.  However, I am going to go with what many have said before.  If we can't get snow with the look we have for late February/early March with a -NAO, +PNA, El Nino, Strat warm, what are we doing here?  

If we fail, Phillies baseball is not far away and that's fine with me.

Go Phillies!!!!!

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Our beautiful stretch of February weather looks to continue for most of the next week with average to above temps and sunshine much of the upcoming week. The rumored pattern change to colder....if it occurs is still at least 10 or more days away.
Records for today: High 63 (1991) / Low 1 below (1898) / Precipitation 1.35" (1920) / Snow 9.1" (1995)
image.png.306b0d4acae335e19619d59b7b5424ec.png
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33 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:
Our beautiful stretch of February weather looks to continue for most of the next week with average to above temps and sunshine much of the upcoming week. The rumored pattern change to colder....if it occurs is still at least 10 or more days away.
Records for today: High 63 (1991) / Low 1 below (1898) / Precipitation 1.35" (1920) / Snow 9.1" (1995)
image.png.306b0d4acae335e19619d59b7b5424ec.png

MDT has only seen the teens 5 nights for the entire Winter season so far....very possible they add one on this week (not a forecast, I never trust them fully) so colder is here now.  Just not the way we all want it. 

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21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Icon is suppressed but not necessarily completely.  I think it’s just delaying it by 12hrs, give or take, but too early to say for sure. Let's see what other guidance says.

Hopefully the other guidance continues to push the 13th chance south. Just a day or 2 ago it was showing as a cutter on the long range GFS & ensembles.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February.

Def not planting but things I the ground should start waking up middle of this next week. It happens even when we aren’t in a torch - sun is quite warm these days. 

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16.

Look at that blocking on day 16…

IMG_4879.png

IMG_4880.png

Too much of a good thing on day 16 imho. But it will either weaken as we approach and be ok or get so strong as to develop a full latitude ridge like what we are in now. Believe me, anything is possible despite what these silicon boxes are spitting out today.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT has only seen the teens 5 nights for the entire Winter season so far....very possible they add one on this week (not a forecast, I never trust them fully) so colder is here now.  Just not the way we all want it. 

I had my first sub-freezing night in nearly 2 weeks this morning. Several more incoming this week.

Flip side...normal high for today in Lanco is 39. It's currently 48, which I would consider a well AN departure.

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