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Central PA Winter 23/24


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From Our friend DT:  ABOUT NEW ENGLAND / NE PA/ SE interior NY/ nw NJ.... SUNDAY SNOWSTORM 

Currently  there is  major Trough in the jet stream is moving from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This system has developed LOW pressure In ARK and MO.  This LOW  pressure area will track northeast into OH and the eastern Great Lakes. As it does so most of the rain in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley will bypass the Middle Atlantic region except for a few showers Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Friday afternoon will  see a lot of sunshine especially in VA MD and DEL as well as western NC. Readings are likely to go above 70° in many areas even as far north as Washington dc/ bal  and into the mid and upper 60s into the Shenandoah Valley and near 60 in southwest VA and the mountains of western NC. 

BUT A second area of LOW pressure will develop in the Mississippi Delta on Friday night and Saturday morning. This well-organized LOW pressure area will intensify as it moves northeast up the Appalachian Mountains across northern GA, eastern TN and western NC by Saturday night. 

This will spread significant rain from GA  to MD and across all of eastern TN, eastern KY and WV. The LOW  pressure area will drive into OH by Sunday morning but then it will transfer its energy as it jumps over the mountains and a new LOW pressure area will develop  off the VA/ MD coast . 

As the system moves  away, it will pull in colder air and the rain could end as snow in western MD, the  eastern panhandle of WV  and the northwest 25% of VA for a few hours Sunday night or predawn  hours of Monday. More significant snowfalls possible in northeast PA, southern NY and interior portions of southern New England

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z NAM gets decent snow this run to areas just to the north & west of Harrisburg.

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It's too warm to use 10:1 Bliz. I think Kuchera is closer to reality, which is more snow tv than anything. 6z Gfs drops a bomb over mby. Lol Yeah...right. :(

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z NAM does not have a primary that gets to Erie.

The reason that CTP does so well this run is because the initial low is weak & does not plow too far north. The low then jumps to the coast well to our south in NC & then heads to the DelMarVa.

 

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It is an elongated low on the 0Z and the periphery of it does in fact get near Erie. 

 

image.thumb.png.35cc9f954e9c61f685270ffc5c259c17.png

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Unfortunately, the globals are not cooperating in showing additional phasing/moving the trough away from extremely positive for any prospective event the 31 Jan -2nd of Feb time period.      

It was so unusual, I  doubt anyone is too surprised. 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

At this point I am nearing the go big or go home phase and that period is as close as we get to that possibility for a bit.   

Eps extended have been advertising a big event the week of 2/12-19 for several days. I don't know its evolution, but my guess would be the sw trough lifts out and because a major storm that has its main effects on the interior. The first snowfall map I posted last night reflects that with the greatest snowfall anomalies in NE PA, but stretching south toward us as well. I was thinking that may be our first shot at a biggy.

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We picked up another 0.15" of rain since midnight bringing our 3 day total to 0.61". This brings our January total to 6.28" this is the wettest January since the 7.08" that fell back in 1999. The wettest January was the 9.72" that fell back in 1979. Today and tomorrow should be mainly dry with the fog finally burning off by noon today. Today will be the warmest day (might hit 60 degrees) before we trend back close to normal by Sunday and into the new week. Rain chances increase again by Tomorrow night and should continue till Monday AM. We could see another inch or so of rain by then. We should be cold enough to see some wet snow mix in toward Monday morning but with temps staying just above freezing no accumulation.
Records for today: High 75 (1950) - warmest January temperature on record / Low 1 below zero (1922) / Precipitation 1.40" (2011) / Snow 14.0" (2011)image.png.eb1b783c15cb1ada20878d0f1054e53e.png
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3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It's too warm to use 10:1 Bliz. I think Kuchera is closer to reality, which is more snow tv than anything. 6z Gfs drops a bomb over mby. Lol Yeah...right. :(

IF we had a decent antecedent cold, I'd be latchin onto the snow train.....but we don't.  Miller B's w/ warm out ahead, just dont work well around here.  

No matter what the models show leading up, we WONT have it.  Said it yesterday and I'm holding onto it.  Elevation event is where the snow will be best.  Somerset to Hazleton and surrounding locals in CTP and North country as well.

What I am happy to see, is next weeks colder looks here in NE and as others have suggested, maybe we can get clipped or coastal next weekend.

Happy Friday all.

 

 

   

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

48 with light rain falling. An additional .18” of rain, bringing the two-day total to .38”. 

perfect snowpack decimation weather.  At least it lasted till mid week as we thought it would.  Boy did it go fast starting Wed night.

 

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Roofus, Rgem, and HRRR all mid 60's to near 70 today in the middle and lower parts of the LSV.  That is going to be pretty gross.  

Good. If it ain't gunna snow, let me save my oil until it's cold enough to snow. Then I  can put all that wonderful, warming carbon in the air. Lol

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If it gets in the 70's the AC will be humming here.  Have to uncover it first. 

I've never covered mine. I've thought about doing it, but never heard any horror stories if I  didn't. But I have thought that if we were threatened by a bad ice storm, I'd get around to it.

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Millersville has a shot at the record high minimum today.  Current record is 44 set in 1967.  Low for the day so far is 47.   It is unfortunate to be talking about such things during peak climo cold time but such is life.

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Temps have rocketed to 61ºF here this morning after being pretty much 36-42ºF for the last couple days. Looking back thru my obs data it’s the first time my weather station has been above 60 since November 17th apparently. 

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