Central PA Winter 23/24

[Bubbler86]

57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Still not there or really even close but this was the time period that I thought the 28th low could set us up for.   Somewhat cold air would be in place.   Have energy in both streams...500 just not good enough yet.

 

GFS closer than the ICON.  A rare SE moving coastal (or several areas of lowest pressure) after this panel.   The coastal is forming as the clipper arrives so grab your Millers and drink up. 

 

[Rd9108]

I apologize for the goofballs trying to troll your sub forum. The inmates sometimes escape the asylum, you guys understand. 

Hopefully we can all cash in a statewide hit before winter is over.

[pasnownut]

Nooner GooFuS livin up to its name.

Not sure that I've ever seen an alberta clipper go due SE....right off the right side of the map.

and furthermore the 500's beyond that are part of the wonky evolutions I mentioned a few days back.

a few days later a cutter to Nebraska that retros to Southern Colorado.  Just not somethin we se often/ever.

 

[Bubbler86]

To the surprise of many (not really) the late MR and LR Op GFS is drastically different than the run earlier today.   Does not mean either are right but what was an almost negatively tilted trough off the east coast on Feb 6 is now a ridge poking down from Canada. 

[Itstrainingtime]

41 and very dense fog at home when I left for work 30 minutes ago. If it was dense earlier this morning, it's dense-er now. So far, an even .30" of rain has fallen. 

[canderson]

Not too foggy here but we have no snow cover at all so that might be why. 47 right before 1 pm. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, canderson said:

Not too foggy here but we have no snow cover at all so that might be why. 47 right before 1 pm. 

Only snow here is piles - I'm surprised how dense the fog is. It is localized around Maytown/Marietta - once I got south of there, it became "ordinary" fog.  

[sauss06]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Not too foggy here but we have no snow cover at all so that might be why. 47 right before 1 pm. 

everything in the back of my house (west facing) is gone. there were the piles i shoveled from sidewalks remaining out front when i left at 515am

[Bubbler86]

Was 60 here at noon but down to 58 now.   Upper LSV still not feeling the heat

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Was 60 here at noon but down to 58 now.   Upper LSV still not feeling the heat

 

 

 

The 45 on that map between Bainbridge and Columbia is pretty much where Maytown is - and that's exactly what it is at home right now...45 degrees. 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The 45 on that map between Bainbridge and Columbia is pretty much where Maytown is - and that's exactly what it is at home right now...45 degrees. 

I think I saw your house when standing at the overlook on Chickies Hill Ridge/Breezyview.

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think I saw your house when standing at the overlook on Chickees Hill Ridge.

First off, it's Chickies...if you're going to come snoop, at least get your snooping down right. 

Second, if you saw a sign out front that said "No Soliciting Please...We're Inside Enjoying a Nooner" - well...

That was my neighbor's house. 

  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

First off, it's Chickies...if you're going to come snoop, at least get your snooping down right. 

Second, if you saw a sign out front that said "No Soliciting Please...We're Inside Enjoying a Nooner" - well...

That was my neighbor. 

  

I had corrected it above and add some more clarification.   So, all the Lanco heads can keep cool.  LOL

[Itstrainingtime]

Euro says "Congrats East Nantmeal Township" 

[Jns2183]

I think I saw your house when standing at the overlook on Chickies Hill Ridge/Breezyview.

So you see where he roosts, where it all goes down.

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[Bubbler86]

32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro says "Congrats East Nantmeal Township" 

Euro is pretty cold next week.  4 mornings mid-teens to near 20..highs near freezing for 3 consecutive days.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Euro is pretty cold next week.  4 mornings mid-teens to near 20..highs near freezing for 3 consecutive days.

Yeah, I  was just going to mention how the Euro carves out a large trough in the east thanks to the Canadian ridge that pins it in the NE and won'tlet to escape. Recall the Gfs was advertising a trough in the east similar to it several days ago, so I  guess it was on to something. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I  was just going to mention how the Euro carves out a large trough in the east thanks to the Canadian ridge that pins it in the NE and won'tlet to escape. Recall the Gfs was advertising a trough in the east similar to it several days ago, so I  guess it was on to something. 

All the Euro needed was seeing a posting stating something had staying power, and it flipped the script. 

[Bubbler86]

MA has a thread for the 1/28 storm....shit getting real! 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

MA has a thread for the 1/28 storm....shit getting real! 

Hard up. I lived there long enough to know the feeling. Lol

[Jns2183]

MA has a thread for the 1/28 storm....shit getting real! 

Scraping the bottom

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[Jns2183]

White rain would be a win

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[mitchnick]

I'm really wondering what the he!! is going on with these pos ensembles that continue to hold onto the ridge in the east. I just don't see how the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies verify.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm really wondering what the he!! is going on with these pos ensembles that continue to hold onto the ridge in the east. I just don't see how the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies verify.

I am referring to third week on the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies.

[MAG5035]

My general take on this Sunday event is it favors elevational areas like the Laurel’s,North Central, and Poconos for the best chance of accumulating snows. I like the progged track and the ridge axis out west plus high heights to our north should ensure that track goes to the coast underneath PA. It’s just another case of this winter having a good storm track and no actual cold to work with. A more wintry solution likely hinges on dynamics helping cool the column as the coastal low winds up. I think the Sus Valley’s best chance comes from if there’s a couple meso bands as the coastal starts pulling away, something the Euro looked like it was toying around with despite being notably drier overall than the GFS with this system. Either way, progged surface and low level column temps are super marginal even where it’s favored to snow. 

I think the mid-week period next week might actually be a somewhat better opportunity. 12z GFS dropped a beautifully tracked clipper and other guidance has been showing some kind of energy that could bring a swath of precip where there’d be colder temps aloft in the wake of Sunday’s coastal to support a snow column.  Pattern supports such a thing, we have a big western ridge. Clippers have been non-existent the last few years because we haven’t had much +PNA the last few years. So we’ll see. Can’t progress the ridge axis east too fast either because that would push the track of the prospective clipper too far NE for us to really get into it. 12z Euro has the clipper energy but went wild card also sending a potent shortwave straight from northern Nunavut down the east shore of Hudson Bay to phase in a monster trough and cut-off low in the NE US. An evolution that isn’t even in the ballpark of other guidance today. 

Barring the Euro’s pretty wild D7-10 evolution actually coming to fruition, we look to maintain a mostly average to above average temp regime likely through the first week of Feb. Eventual return to any sustained cold is going to in part depend on the MJO. GEFS mires the MJO in 6, Euro EPS mires it in 7. None of the extended guidance take it into 8 until about mid-month or so. Having it in 7 would at least be better than 6. Downturn of the SOI (daily negatives the last few days) may lend support to that index maybe going for at least 7 but we’ll see if that sustains and we get more sustained negative values that would indicate a switch that would favor the 8-1-2 phases. SOI is basically a comparison of pressure anomalies between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. Positive SOI values indicate lower than normal pressures in Darwin (associated with convection that typically drives phase 4-5-6 MJO) 

There was a period from about the 10th to 21st of large positives in that index (lots of Indo-Pacific convection) which preceded the current run of phase 4-5-6 we’re in now. The running 30 day average of that index is at +7.. sustained +8 or more would technically indicate La Niña conditions via that index. Very rare to unheard of with a strong Nino going on in terms of SST’s (ONI value this week is +1.7ºC). Sustained -8 or less would indicate El-nino and even the 90 day average is in the ENSO neutral category. Big time disconnect between the SST El-nino and what the atmosphere has been doing. Certainly going to be an interesting thing to review when we tally whatever happens the rest of the winter. 

Moving onward, the recent reversal of the NAO/AO to positive has also helped drive the warm-up, which like in December is going to be most focused in terms of + anomalies in the northern US and Canada. We do see these values along with the EPO head back to negative getting towards week 2 in the ensembles to go along with a PNA that will remain positive. That should help source region for us, though Canada may still be quite warm (vs average). So I think we’ll get a pattern that will continue to give us chances while we’re currently in that few week period at the bottom of the curve climo-wise, but sustained below average cold doesn’t seem likely the next 1-2 weeks. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, anotherman said:

The guy is horrible.  I think Ji called him Mark Margarbage and I nearly spit out my coffee.

He’s popping the champagne to celebrate his forecast. Interesting way to verify a forecast. Instead of using the climatological normal of 11.7 inches, use the significantly lower moving 10- and 20-year averages. Also the 10-year average is 8.8 inches, not 8.1. And the 20 year average doesn’t actually include 20 years as there were no snow observations for much of the 2000s at AVP.

And just ignore temperatures altogether. They don’t matter. And forget the entire month of December. Just toss that into the trash.

 

[TimB]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

He’s popping the champagne to celebrate his forecast. Interesting way to verify a forecast. Instead of using the climatological normal of 11.7 inches, use the significantly lower moving 10- and 20-year averages. Also the 10-year average is 8.8 inches, not 8.1. And the 20 year average doesn’t actually include 20 years as there were no snow observations for much of the 2000s at AVP.

And just ignore temperatures altogether. They don’t matter. And forget the entire month of December. Just toss that into the trash.

 

I appreciate what you’re trying to point out here, but data from actual official climate sites is significantly less valuable than data from a poorly sited weather station in the backyard of a Chester County home.

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, TimB said:

I appreciate what you’re trying to point out here, but data from actual official climate sites is significantly less valuable than data from a poorly sited weather station in the backyard of a Chester County home.

I thought you said you were "out of here" now leave. 

[Bubbler86]

Weenie snow map, thank you MA thread!  Long, long, long range.   Buckle up!   Plows down!    Add 30% for Kuch!

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Weenie snow map, thank you MA thread!  Long, long, long range.   Buckle up!   Plows down!  

 

I saw that, didn't want to post it to jinx anyone. LOL.