AccuChris Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, anotherman said: JB? I channeled my inner “snow joe” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is surprising he would punt for 3-4 weeks. Something you see here more often but not from him as much. 2 weeks is a long time in the weather world. A month is an uber long time. I was with Kyle at MU around Thanksgiving time and he was very confident in a cold/snowy pattern for February. Im surprised he is “giving up” on that notion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I never heard of Elliott before coming to this forum. I know he's out of MU, but what is he? Professor, student assistant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I never heard of Elliott before coming to this forum. I know he's out of MU, but what is he? Professor, student assistant? Director of Met, I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I never heard of Elliott before coming to this forum. I know he's out of MU, but what is he? Professor, student assistant? Kyle Elliott, M.S. | Millersville University BACKGROUND: Kyle holds a B.S. in Meteorology from Millersville University and an M.S. in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University. Kyle worked at AccuWeather from 2016-2020 as an operational forecaster. He then joined Millersville Meteorology in fall 2021. His primary focus is on weather analysis, media meteorology and the development of Internet weather resources. An expert forecaster, he has been quoted in newspapers and magazines and has composed hundreds of forecasts for TV and radio broadcasts. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, AccuChris said: I was with Kyle at MU around Thanksgiving time and he was very confident in a cold/snowy pattern for February. Im surprised he is “giving up” on that notion. It is rare for him to reverse course like this. He is not always right but usually moves on vs. changing from what I have seen. If we do not have a snowy end to winter, one group in another forum is going to be ugly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 CMC/Rgem still calling for some LSV 70's Friday. Someone else, I think MJS, reported the chance of records but more max lows I think...a high of 70 at MDT would not break the record of 73 set in 1950. The Rgem predicted max min of 54 or 54 would demolish the old record of 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 MU "Kenny" Elliott only said his block buster snow forecast for Feb is in trouble. He really only said the trouble is through mid-Feb. Sounds a lot like some other posters so not super extreme even if a pivot back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MU "Kenny" Elliott only said his block buster snow forecast for Feb is in trouble. He really only said the trouble is through mid-Feb. Sounds a lot like some other posters so not super extreme even if a pivot back. He also said that the chances of a significant snow has diminished. He did not cancel snow altogether in any shape or form. Sometimes people read what they want to read, and honestly...vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MU "Kenny" Elliott only said his block buster snow forecast for Feb is in trouble. He really only said the trouble is through mid-Feb. Sounds a lot like some other posters so not super extreme even if a pivot back. That's an old pic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He also said that the chances of a significant snow has diminished. He did not cancel snow altogether in any shape or form. Sometimes people read what they want to read, and honestly...vice versa. We have some models showing plowable snow during a blind shut period in a few days. Cannot be too upset with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MU "Kenny" Elliott only said his block buster snow forecast for Feb is in trouble. He really only said the trouble is through mid-Feb. Sounds a lot like some other posters so not super extreme even if a pivot back. He says he is throwing in the towel sounds like he is giving up on his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Fwiw, today's Euro weeklies continue to look as good, if not a hair better, imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, paweather said: He says he is throwing in the towel sounds like he is giving up on his forecast. Pretty much, but as ITT mentioned, not saying no snow just not a blockbuster. Right or wrong, it is like saying the movie for the next month is going to be Ace Ventura: When Nature calls and not Ace Ventura: Pet Detective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Pretty much, but as ITT mentioned, not saying no snow just not a blockbuster. Right or wrong, it is like saying the movie for the next month is going to be Ace Ventura: When Nature calls and not Ace Ventura: Pet Detective. You're going to make me watch movies now to figure out a forecast? This is too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You're going to make me watch movies now to figure out a forecast? This is too hard. I do not know many people that watched When Nature calls the whole way through...they usually turn it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The HH GFS is one of the worst Miller B's ever for much of PA. Transfer and dry. A bit strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HH GFS is one of the worst Miller B's ever for much of PA. Transfer and dry. A bit strange. Gfs is still trying to figure it out. It would be a better model if the Euro came out before it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 None of the 18z runs strike me as moving toward the Euro unfortunately. I was hoping to see that be the case. That said, 18z GGEM did come in slightly better with the slp a bit stronger than its 12z run, but that's likely inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: None of the 18z runs strike me as moving toward the Euro unfortunately. I was hoping to see that be the case. That said, 18z GGEM did come in slightly better with the slp a bit stronger than its 12z run, but that's likely inconsequential. That means the Euro is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs is still trying to figure it out. It would be a better model if the Euro came out before it. Weird 18z GFS solution for Sunday. I just like that we are back in the game after a couple of bad days of trends. Today’s runs overall were a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, paweather said: That means the Euro is right! It's right when it's the only one that says no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Snow is all gone except for piles. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I like the 18z Euro. It's a tad deeper with the slp that is headed from W NC to the Obx based on isobars and the 5h vort is near identical to 12z. Hopefully the Eps reflect an improvement, but not guarantees of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18z EPS still looks good for the chance at the rain to snow scenario for a good chunk of CTP. This run held on to the initial low a little longer into WV than the 12z run, so the snow mean was a little further north in CTP, but close enough for the LSV to still be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Eps a touch further north. Looks like the stronger system pulled in some warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z EPS still looks good for the chance at the rain to snow scenario for a good chunk of CTP. This run held on to the initial low a little longer into WV than the 12z run, so the snow mean was a little further north in CTP, but close enough for the LSV to still be in the game. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Here is more from the 18z EPS with the mean low position & 6 hr. precip. I like that low position off of the coast of the DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Bliz, I also noticed that High pressure in Canada was weaker at 1030 vs 1033 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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