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Central PA Winter 23/24


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3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

You gotta lay off the doom my man. With Lazer focus you lock onto the worst forcast possible for what you want and ruminate on it. That can't be good for mental health.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

just saying what they said was going to happen is all.  I see all the time so many forecasts or outlooks conflict with others. 

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2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

5 this morning. A nice stretch of winter, if you like the impressive cold and some snow we experienced within the last week.

I was wondering if you might make a run for 0 but just the same, Rgem with the nice call for out of the city temps last night.  It is in its wheelhouse with low wind/high pressures overhead. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Down to 8 here now.   THV hit 0.

Haha of course they did. Low of 15 here. We knocked back that departure to only 2.4 AN at MDT but the next week or so looks to shoot it back up, albeit not as extreme as where it was. These mild overnight lows will kill the average. National high of 72 at like six places in southern Florida and low of -19 at good ‘ol Davis, WV. 

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha of course they did. Low of 15 here. We knocked back that departure to only 2.4 AN at MDT but the next week or so looks to shoot it back up, albeit it not as extreme as where it was. These mild overnight lows will kill the average. National high of 72 at like six places in southern Florida and low of -19 at good ‘ol Davis, WV. 

Yea, model wise the highs are not too bad for the next 7-10 days...a couple more extreme days, but lots of double digit AN lows.   Almost the entire first week of Feb is BN on the Op GFS. 

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32 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha of course they did. Low of 15 here. We knocked back that departure to only 2.4 AN at MDT but the next week or so looks to shoot it back up, albeit it not as extreme as where it was. These mild overnight lows will kill the average. National high of 72 at like six places in southern Florida and low of -19 at good ‘ol Davis, WV. 

Just want to add that our very own Americanwx forum has a poster that lives in Davis WV. 

I feel bad for you - your team outplayed SF and deserved better. Part of the cruel reality of sports where the team that plays the best isn't always rewarded. 

And I feel sick for Bills fans...how much can one fan base suffer? 

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11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So why is the Gfs operational looking so much colder with the 0z and 6z runs? Could be its MJO prediction that now gets us into Phase 7, which puts troughiness in the east. By the way, here's a link to MJO phases during El Niños.

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

ECMF (3).png

JB has alluded to possibility of "all hell breaking out" once we get to February 10th in the eastern US into March. Whether it does, remains to be seen. That goes against the the CPC's outlook.

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2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB has alluded to possibility of "all hell breaking out" once we get to February 10th in the eastern US into March. Whether it does, remains to be seen. That goes against the the CPC's outlook.

Just like saying winter was over to Mid Feb, on the opposite side JB's language leaves himself wide open to be wrong. 

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21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So why is the Gfs operational looking so much colder with the 0z and 6z runs? Could be its MJO prediction that now gets us into Phase 7, which puts troughiness in the east. By the way, here's a link to MJO phases during El Niños.

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

ECMF (3).png

Actually, I  screwed up. That's the Euro MJO forecast. Gfs kills the MJO and puts it in the COD, which could also explain it.

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21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So why is the Gfs operational looking so much colder with the 0z and 6z runs? Could be its MJO prediction that now gets us into Phase 7, which puts troughiness in the east. By the way, here's a link to MJO phases during El Niños.

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Here is another that I use in case anyone want to look at a couple.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Nice winter weekend.  

Now we wash, rinse and ......

 

repeat?  

Hoping this weeks warmup is short lived and we get the repeat sooner than later.

 

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3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Will there be icy weather tomorrow? Don't the models have a tendency to under estimate the low level cold air trapped near the surface? 

Thank you for bringing this up - I was thinking about it on the way in to the office this morning. I'm concerned for sure. This "opportunity" is flying under the radar, big time. Not likely, but if precip moves in earlier than expected which it often does...look out. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you for bringing this up - I was thinking about it on the way in to the office this morning. I'm concerned for sure. This "opportunity" is flying under the radar, big time. Not likely, but if precip moves in earlier than expected which it often does...look out. 

It has basically been below freezing for a week now. My temp got to 33 yesterday, so that ground is cold to be sure. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you for bringing this up - I was thinking about it on the way in to the office this morning. I'm concerned for sure. This "opportunity" is flying under the radar, big time. Not likely, but if precip moves in earlier than expected which it often does...look out. 

 

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

It has basically been below freezing for a week now. My temp got to 33 yesterday, so that ground is cold to be sure. 

The Rgem and RRFS do show icing with the precip shield farther south that some other mesos.   Unless the 2M temps are off I think it would be short-lived as temps are 31-33. 

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