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Central PA Winter 23/24


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That snip from the NWS talking about bands into the LSV tomorrow is legit....a chance someone near the Burg or even lower sees a topper tomorrow.   The HRRR is showing instability in the early to midafternoon.   Route 80 Alert day. 

 

And, despite PSU shutting the blinds for 3-4 weeks I am still sticking with chances in the 10 day frame.   Chances for something sloppy, not cold like now. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@Bubbler86

That was quite the impressive band earlier.

Was at work all day and just measured 4" after that band came through  I might of has a bit more with compacting but I think I'm going to go with 4"

It was great, I figured you got hit hard.  Just east of Waynesboro near Waynescastle road they tacked on 2" in 45 min.   We are at 4.75 here now.  

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I did not even see that when I put my foot down above.  I am just not punting 4 weeks.  That is a recipe for having to back track in mid winter. 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I did not even see that when I put my foot down above.  I am just not punting 4 weeks.  That is a recipe for having to back track. 

 

Like I said, i hope we can steal one because the pattern sux. But a slow moving, closed u/l low that changes from rain to snow is the perfect spring snowstorm scenario. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I did not even see that when I put my foot down above.  I am just not punting 4 weeks.  That is a recipe for having to back track in mid winter. 

 

Psu isn't wrong though. The pattern sucks for the next few weeks.

Sure we could steal something. It is prime climo.

I would say Ctp would have alot better chance of stealing one than most of Lwx over the next few weeks.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, i hope we can steal one because the pattern sux. But a slow moving, closed u/l low that changes from rain to snow is the perfect spring snowstorm scenario. 

Our models cannot always predict ANYTHING well past 10 days including patterns so I am not even going to say the pattern will suck early Feb....maybe it does and not saying you are wrong at all, just too far out to assume models are right.  

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Psu isn't wrong though. The pattern sucks for the next few weeks.

Sure we could steal something. It is prime climo.

I would say Ctp would have alot better chance of stealing one than most of Lwx over the next few weeks.

See my last post to Mitch.  Why is it that when the pattern looks great 3 weeks out everyone (except someone in Marysville LOL)  is cautious but when it sucks it is a done deal and always right.  Maybe it will be sort of in between :-).  I can quote you posts from 24-48 hours ago that sounded positive about early Feb.  Just not looking great today. 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

See my last post to Mitch.  Why is it that when the pattern looks great 3 weeks out everyone (except someone in Marysville LOL)  is cautious but when it sucks it is a done deal and always right.  Maybe it will be sort of in between :-).  I can quote you posts from 24-48 hours ago that sounded positive about early Feb.  Just not looking great today. 

We can definitely sneak into something. He'll the GFS has been hinting at next weekend for a few days now.

It's just alot tougher when the overall pattern looks like it does for the next week or 2. 

We're just gearing up for our HECS the last 2 weeks in February . :weenie:

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Just now, Chris78 said:

We can definitely sneak into something. He'll the GFS has been hinting at next weekend for a few days now.

It's just alot tougher when the overall pattern looks like it does for the next week or 2. 

We're just gearing up for our HECS the last 2 weeks in February . :weenie:

A week or two I have no issue with.  Punting into Mid-February on Jan 19th is just not my style (when I referenced some posts on the MA.)    That long of a punt sounds like something the Dallas Cowboys would draw up.    But after this Monday I think we are on the sidelines for cold for 7-10 days.     Let's enjoy the heating bill break :-) 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

A week or two I have no issue with.  Punting into Mid-February on Jan 19th is just not my style (when I referenced some posts on the MA.)    That long of a punt sounds like something the Dallas Cowboys would draw up.    But after this Monday I think we are on the sidelines for cold for 7-10 days.     Let's enjoy the heating bill break :-) 

 

 

I'm thinking by the second week in February we're back in business. 

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28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, i hope we can steal one because the pattern sux. But a slow moving, closed u/l low that changes from rain to snow is the perfect spring snowstorm scenario. 

The 12z models each were showing some type of Winter weather in PA around the 29th.

IMG_4568.png

IMG_4567.png

IMG_4566.png

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25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

See my last post to Mitch.  Why is it that when the pattern looks great 3 weeks out everyone (except someone in Marysville LOL)  is cautious but when it sucks it is a done deal and always right.  Maybe it will be sort of in between :-).  I can quote you posts from 24-48 hours ago that sounded positive about early Feb.  Just not looking great today. 

Lol, guilty as charged for looking for patterns that can produce snow!

 

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25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, guilty as charged for looking for patterns that can produce snow!

 

No, I said that you are not cautious and go gung-ho when patterns are good while many are cautious.   When patterns appear bad, people line up to complain.  I did not want to insult you and say all are cautious.  You go for the gold. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No, I said that you are not cautious and go gung-ho when patterns are good while many are cautious.   When patterns appear bad, people line up to complain.  I did not want to insult you and say all are cautious.  You go for the gold. 

It’s all good! 
I enjoyed this week of tracking for sure. Best week with 2 storms since February of 2021 !

I’m ready to track more snow!

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I just got to look at this beauty of a 18z GFS late January snow storm potential.

At the least, it’s something to track. Back here in the interior, we could score if this type of storm were to actually develop.

The snow map was pretty nice for us, but it buried NE this run.

IMG_4570.png

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