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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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Just now, mitchnick said:

Week 4 would be Mid Jan.  I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there.  It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Week 4 would be Mid Jan.  I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there.  It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days. 

No, I'm referring to the week starting 1/1. Plus, you can still get snow in lousy patterns, especially a Niño. 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Week 4 would be Mid Jan.  I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there.  It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days. 

Lol, choose to read it however you want.

Also, week 4 starts January 1st !

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52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Exactly!

I cherry picked the advertised pattern for a few dates from the latest Euro Weeklies.

The first date is from December 27th….

Highly serviceable…..

IMG_3566.png

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looking at this map, one would think the tailing slp is developing a bit father east than some meso's showed.    This can sometimes be off from actual sw positions though.

 

image.thumb.png.d4c72d7a05d18557562382eb2e871e6f.png

Don't know if it is or isn't, but that could just be from the thunderstorm cluster in the area. In my weenie experience, we want the precip to be at least as far west as Charleston, WV. It is now. As long as the precip keeps blossoming as shown in that radar loop out of SW VA shows, we're good if we can get us some cold air.

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19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if it is or isn't, but that could just be from the thunderstorm cluster in the area. In my weenie experience, we want the precip to be at least as far west as Charleston, WV. It is now. As long as the precip keeps blossoming as shown in that radar loop out of SW VA shows, we're good if we can get us some cold air.

Defintely can be thunderstorms which is why I threw some question in but I enjoy watching for busts (good or bad.).  There is not a lot forcing in other areas as of yet though.   As you know said thunderstorms can also limit blossoming to the west.    

 

The cold at the surface is still my worry.  I truly think accum snow is going to be whomever gets under a band that overcomes the surface. 

 

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@psuhoffman Just post this in the Mid Atlantic thread….

“Just to clarify

1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great.  

2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 


3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. “

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

@psuhoffman Just post this in the Mid Atlantic thread….

“Just to clarify

1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great.  

2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 


3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. “

This was the thought of my post (someone did say past beginning of Jan) in chuckling that there was panic of the pattern not changing at Christmas.   I disagree with the panic just based on everyone's current penchant to feel cautious when times are good but easily turning negative when things start can kicking. 

 

With that said, recently there were posts (EPS I think) showing a sweet pattern Christmas week and starting to feel we are losing hope on that. 

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