Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, Try to read it again…. I just did! I am not going to quote it as it would embarrass the poster which is quite respected over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ninja'd by Blizzard of 93! But, but…. A poster or 2 is worried in the Mid Atlantic …. It’s over…lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 5h off today's Eps look great starting week 3, but especially 4, 5, and 6. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202312100000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401010000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: But, but…. A poster or 2 is worried in the Mid Atlantic …. It’s over…lol! And people asked why I stopped posting there 5 and a half years ago. Lurking is enough for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, mitchnick said: 5h off today's Eps look great starting week 3, but especially 4, 5, and 6. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202312100000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401010000 Week 4 would be Mid Jan. I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there. It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's hotter here than Tomlin's azz. Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Week 4 would be Mid Jan. I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there. It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days. No, I'm referring to the week starting 1/1. Plus, you can still get snow in lousy patterns, especially a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Week 4 would be Mid Jan. I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there. It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days. Lol, choose to read it however you want. Also, week 4 starts January 1st ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No, I'm referring to the week starting 1/1. Plus, you can still get snow in lousy patterns, especially a Niño. I agree with you & it’s not lousy, it’s serviceable on the GEFS & GEPS. There is no -PNA digging down to Baja or Southern California like last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And people asked why I stopped posting there 5 and a half years ago. Lurking is enough for me. I couldn’t help myself & I just posted the GEFS & GEPS to hopefully calm a few nerves over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: Where are you? Orlando. Beautiful past 9 days. Not missing the drama one bit either... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No, I'm referring to the week starting 1/1. Plus, you can still get snow in lousy patterns, especially a Niño. Gotcha, I thought you meant 4 weeks out. I am just reporting what I read over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Sorry I only pay attention during the winter…did our region have to give anything up to get mitchnick? I thought mitchnick only posted in mid-Atlantic. Great addition for this sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Anyhow, back to today…. It’s probably going to snow tonight! Most of us had no idea on this threat until the middle of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 The 18z GFS also improved for tonight. More “blue” got the LSV, even with Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 52 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 5h off today's Eps look great starting week 3, but especially 4, 5, and 6. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202312100000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401010000 Exactly! I cherry picked the advertised pattern for a few dates from the latest Euro Weeklies. The first date is from December 27th…. Highly serviceable….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 .79 of much needed rain so far currently 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 How about Early January-the fourth…. This would work too… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Sometimes, it helps to look for yourself… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Orlando. Beautiful past 9 days. Not missing the drama one bit either... Thanks and enjoy! It's kind of nice to watch it all unfold (or unravel) from a comfortable distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 This is the radar site we need to be watching for tonight, and it is starting to light up! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=FCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Looking at this map, one would think the trailing slp is developing a bit father east than some meso's showed. This can sometimes be off from actual sw positions though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Looking at this map, one would think the tailing slp is developing a bit father east than some meso's showed. This can sometimes be off from actual sw positions though. Don't know if it is or isn't, but that could just be from the thunderstorm cluster in the area. In my weenie experience, we want the precip to be at least as far west as Charleston, WV. It is now. As long as the precip keeps blossoming as shown in that radar loop out of SW VA shows, we're good if we can get us some cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said: Sorry I only pay attention during the winter…did our region have to give anything up to get mitchnick? I thought mitchnick only posted in mid-Atlantic. Great addition for this sub forum. The transaction is for a “poster to be named later”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Don't know if it is or isn't, but that could just be from the thunderstorm cluster in the area. In my weenie experience, we want the precip to be at least as far west as Charleston, WV. It is now. As long as the precip keeps blossoming as shown in that radar loop out of SW VA shows, we're good if we can get us some cold air. Defintely can be thunderstorms which is why I threw some question in but I enjoy watching for busts (good or bad.). There is not a lot forcing in other areas as of yet though. As you know said thunderstorms can also limit blossoming to the west. The cold at the surface is still my worry. I truly think accum snow is going to be whomever gets under a band that overcomes the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The transaction is for a “poster to be named later”. Yeah, I've been meaning to talk to you about that Bliz. I'm going to have to ask you to clean out your locker... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, I've been meaning to talk to you about that Bliz. I'm going to have to ask you to clean out your locker... Lol, if that’s what it takes to get some snow around here… I was thinking that we ship @canderson to the Europe or Texas forums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Down to 45 here as the temps continue to march down. 14 degree drop in 3-4 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 @psuhoffman Just post this in the Mid Atlantic thread…. “Just to clarify 1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great. 2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: @psuhoffman Just post this in the Mid Atlantic thread…. “Just to clarify 1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great. 2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. “ This was the thought of my post (someone did say past beginning of Jan) in chuckling that there was panic of the pattern not changing at Christmas. I disagree with the panic just based on everyone's current penchant to feel cautious when times are good but easily turning negative when things start can kicking. With that said, recently there were posts (EPS I think) showing a sweet pattern Christmas week and starting to feel we are losing hope on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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