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Central PA Winter 23/24


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21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This stuff should make it to the ground once it gets to us.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=JKL-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

18z Euro has that area of snow in Ky showing up on its 6hr map.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024011818&fh=3&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Nws added to tomorrow's forecast  that snow could be heavy at times. Now I'm special.

They did that for Tamaqua as well, so you're not THAT special... :P

Beyond that, it was 74 here at the Sun City abode. I must be nuts for wanting to come back home. :wacko:

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12 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

18Z Euro is nice. Should be a fun day tomorrow. I wonder if some of us end up with more tomorrow then we had on Tuesday.

Possible!

Heck, like @Itstrainingtime mentioned, Williamsport got 5 inches on Tuesday when they were supposed to be on the northern edge of the lighter Advisory for northern CTP.

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Great write up from CTP this evening.

The energy diving southeast from the Upper Plains which will make
the snow will soon expand and intensify the precip shield over the OH valley. I think it a rather beefy Clipper that taps some GOMEX and Atlantic mstr as it moves toward and across PA. A progressive low track across the Mid-Atlantic just S of PA is classic for light-moderate snowfalls here.
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More from the CTP discussion:

There could be 1-2 more-consistent, heavier bands of snow, though. One should/likely be a W-E band parallel to the storm track but 100 or so miles north of it, perhaps running somewhere just S of UNV but N of the Turnpike. Much of the forcing is gone by 21Z with another deformation zone and associated snow
band possible for the SE as the sfc low starts to deepen as it moves out to sea. A band like this (later in the storm) would likely pivot more NE-SW and affect a wider land area than a W-E
band would.

The latest guidance infuses more confidence in these slightly higher numbers. Still a bit of spread in storm total QPF from the ensembles, but a 0.25 mean across the SE and 15-18:1 SLR for the afternoon should get them above 3", esp on the hill tops. SLRs remain higher than 15:1 across the region with 20:1 values
likely in the NW.
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Just now, paweather said:

Looks the same to me but what do I know.

It lowered south PA a bit.  Did get a few spots closer to 3.5.   Big difference is to our south where it is 5-6".  But for us not a big change.  Maybe 2-4 is a better than 1-3 as a statement for the Lsv.  A little extra snow at the end.

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

My prediction is still limited pavement accumulations, main roads stay clear. It’ll be a nice snow globe so all good. 

with temps being so cold lately why do you feel that way? salt and chemicals still on the roadways? not heavy enough to lay on roads?

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