Itstrainingtime Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A bit of a congrats to the HRRR as several other meso's stayed near 30 today. HRRR was touting 35-40 over there. An impressive climb considering the cloud cover. 35-36 seems within reach at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The latest HRRR is a bit south from 12Z. A good thing IMO as to avoiding a Miller B disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: An impressive climb considering the cloud cover. 35-36 seems within reach at this point. We are at 34 right now so getting close to a 20-degree climb. Airports still near 30 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The latest HRRR is a bit south from 12Z. A good thing IMO as to avoiding a Miller B disaster. Next hour puts it further south https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024011817&fh=18&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=ref1km_ptype&m=hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Next hour puts it further south https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024011817&fh=18&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=ref1km_ptype&m=hrrr It is significant even with the fact that it is warping into an elongated low so it could appear north quickly on a panel. Look at the precip shield below. 12Z first, 17Z second. Snow is farther south and the rain in S VA is mixed with snow due to the lesser push of warm air. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I so wish there was a way to pull historic model runs 24 hour snow, QPF, and hi-low temp for the entire run in for a station that could be exported in a txt, csv, or similar data format. Hell, if it only required writing an API request I would be in heaven. Put I don't even know where to start searching Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is significant even with the fact that it is warping into an elongated low so it could appear north quickly on a panel. Look at the precip shield below. 12Z first, 17Z second. Snow is farther south and the rain in S VA is mixed with snow due to the lesser push of warm air. That is a great run for PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I so wish there was a way to pull historic model runs 24 hour snow, QPF, and hi-low temp for the entire run in for a station that could be exported in a txt, csv, or similar data format. Hell, if it only required writing an API request I would be in heaven. Put I don't even know where to start searching Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I so wish there was a way to pull historic model runs 24 hour snow, QPF, and hi-low temp for the entire run in for a station that could be exported in a txt, csv, or similar data format. Hell, if it only required writing an API request I would be in heaven. Put I don't even know where to start searching --Chatgpt has a lot of words but not much help. ChatGPT ChatGPT To access historic weather model runs for a specific station, you'll likely need to use a weather data API or a meteorological service that provides such data. Here are some general steps you can take to find the information you're looking for: 1. Meteorological Data Providers: Identify meteorological data providers that offer historical weather model data. Some well-known providers include NOAA, ECMWF, or private weather services. 2. API Documentation: Check if the chosen provider offers an API that allows you to access historical weather model runs. Look for documentation on how to make API requests and retrieve the specific data you need. 3. Parameters: Understand the parameters required for your request, such as the station ID, time range, and the specific weather variables like 24-hour snow, QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast), and high-low temperatures. 4. Request Format: Learn how to structure your API request to include the necessary parameters. This may involve specifying the model run, forecast lead time, and any other relevant details. 5. Export Options: Check if the API or service provides options for exporting data in formats like TXT, CSV, or others. Some APIs may return data in JSON format, and you may need to convert it to your preferred format. 6. Authentication: If the API requires authentication, make sure you have the necessary credentials to access the data. 7. Testing: Before implementing your solution, test the API requests with sample data to ensure you can retrieve the desired historical weather model runs. 8. Implementation: Once you've tested and are confident in the API requests, you can implement the process to pull the data for your specific station and time range. Please note that the availability of historical weather model data and the specific procedures for accessing it can vary among providers. If you have a specific provider in mind, you may want to check their documentation or contact their support for assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I, too, am surprised how quickly the airmass has modified today under generally cloudy skies. Low in Lebanon overnight before the clouds dipped to 7° and all morning was in the teens but now at 32°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, AccuChris said: I, too, am surprised how quickly the airmass has modified today under generally cloudy skies. Low in Lebanon overnight before the clouds dipped to 7° and all morning was in the teens but now at 32°. Another reason our southern members need a well south pass of the SLP tomorrow even if it transfers before pass. Keep the 20's locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 No sun today really at all so far at 28 kinda of surprised me with snow pack and cloud cover a weak wind can bring up so much warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Through Hour 16 the HRRR is still south of its 12Z run...a bit less south than it was at 17Z but still good for parts of PA that the precip shield reaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Through Hour 16 the HRRR is still south of its 12Z run...a bit less south than it was at 17Z but still good for parts of PA that the precip shield reaches. Dries out early this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Precip field appears less robust on 18z HRRR when compared to 12z. Think totals may come more in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR not as much of a crowd pleaser this run through as the east side of the LSV is limited by the transfer. Looks 2-4 for much of Eastern PA especially more toward the central and south part. Edit-3 simultaneous posts saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The 12z Euro made my lunch break that much better…3 good runs in a row for the LSV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 28 minutes ago, AccuChris said: I, too, am surprised how quickly the airmass has modified today under generally cloudy skies. Low in Lebanon overnight before the clouds dipped to 7° and all morning was in the teens but now at 32°. WAA ahead of next system is the culprit and why some parts of state were seeing flakes this am. Been showing up on mesos for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The 18z HRRR has to close to the same coverage area of snow with a slight shift south overall from 12z. The 18z run was just drier than 12z. Here they both are to compare. 12z Top 18z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 24 minutes ago, AccuChris said: I, too, am surprised how quickly the airmass has modified today under generally cloudy skies. Low in Lebanon overnight before the clouds dipped to 7° and all morning was in the teens but now at 32°. We’ve had warm air advection ahead of our next system that started overnight last night and the airmass is really dry today, with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens statewide. Some stations in the Laurel’s actually have below zero dews right now, like JST at -2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Would love to get some mood bonus flakes before the main show late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Would love to get some mood bonus flakes before the main show late tonight. Nam is jackpotting you and I, but it is only a nickel or dime machine jackpot. Looks more like the 12Z 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3-4" for Lebanon county now I am thinking 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam is jackpotting you and I, but it is only a nickel or dime machine jackpot. Looks more like the 12Z 3K. Yeah. Nam very similar to Euro imby. Any evidence of snow making it to the ridge tops in your hood? I can see the virga in the sky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Yeah. Nam very similar to Euro imby. Any evidence of snow making it to the ridge tops in your hood? I can see the virga in the sky here. I can see an over 2000' peak right in front of me and it is fairly clear as to visibility so anything falling would be random flakes. See pic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I can see an over 2000' peak right in front of me and it is fairly clear as to visibility so anything falling would be random flakes. See pic: Thx. Great view. Almost as nice as the view from Lowe's! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Might as well add some maps to the map collection in here. Here’s the 12z HREF and the 18z NBM HREF is pretty bullish on somewhat higher totals statewide. Here’s the NBM, and a note about it. This isn’t a straight 10:1 OR a Kuchera map. It applies ratios through its other modeled data, which is probably more accurate. So it has Harrisburg for example at 3.0” and 0.21” QPF (about 14:1). NBM is notably drier northern tier and NE quarter of PA. What do I think? I may draw up a map at some point this evening but right now I basically think that this a statewide 2-4” event with 4-6” (some >6” totals) in the Laurels. There exists the chance that we could have a stripe across central or southern PA that may be a more widespread 4-5” area too like what the HREF shows. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thx. Great view. Almost as nice as the view from Lowe's! Lol Lowes is just off to and down a bit to the left of me about 2 Miles. But same mountains. LOL. And, if Camp David is ever hit, I would not get one more breath of air out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Actually has cracked above freezing here at 32.7ºF, with a bit of a southerly breeze. The dewpoint however is all the way down to 1.6ºF. Like I mentioned a few posts ago, the airmass is very dry today.. so all the virga floating around is likely to take a good while to reach the ground. I don’t expect much until the main show gets here in the late overnight hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Lowes is just off to and down a bit to the left of me about 2 Miles. But same mountains. LOL. I love the hills around your area. I don't know how many times my wife and I came out to that Lowe's for the view instead of going to the Hanover Lowe's which is 3 minutes away. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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