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Central PA Winter 23/24


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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I've mentioned before but I really like what I've seen with the new RRFS model since its release.  I just wish we didn't have to wait so damn long for the model output after its timestamp (12z is still running ha).  Anyway, here is its total Kuch snowfall map for the event, FWIW....

 

I'm enacting weenie rule #3 and tossing merely on the grounds that i don't like what it shows.

 

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and fwiw, it woudnt surprise if we dry up a bit at HH or 0z's.  It happens and is something I'm personally waiting for.  

As I've already ovestated....snow on snow.  I'm good.  Stickin w/ my guess of 2-4 and will hope for coastal pop to be delayed for nice crowd pleasing light event tomorrow.  

 

 

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and FWIW, I am gaining more trust in GFS Op, as its been pretty good IMO of late.

That said, next weeks warmup will include 2 additional mixed/snow events for northers.  Go look at snow map (I look for frozen potential, not for snow numbers in situ's like this).  

Not sure I trust it that much, but stoudt HPs show up at the right time in eastern Canada to help w/ CAD in CTP.

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Can we take a sec and appreciate the cloud cover today? 

With temps rising into the 30s, if we had full sun, we'd be staring at snow on piles tomorrow instead of snow on snow. These clouds are saving our pack, big time. 

If I could draw it up...it would stay cloudy to about 4-4:30, clear off for 4-5 hours, then cloud over later this evening. Give me a few hours of radiational cooling first. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Can we take a sec and appreciate the cloud cover today? 

With temps rising into the 30s, if we had full sun, we'd be staring at snow on piles tomorrow instead of snow on snow. These clouds are saving our pack, big time. 

If I could draw it up...it would stay cloudy to about 4-4:30, clear off for 4-5 hours, then cloud over later this evening. Give me a few hours of radiational cooling first. 

Already above freezing at my house.  Dang.

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Updated CTP Forecast:

Friday
Snow, mainly after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East wind around 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

They raised tomorrow's expected high temps several degrees - my forecast is the same as yours - last evening my forecast was for a high of 28 tomorrow. 

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MU had this to say within the past hour:

An area of high pressure centered off the Carolina coastline will promote lighter winds and slightly milder conditions today. However, high temperatures will still be around 5-10 degrees below normal and generally in the low-to-mid 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy well in advance of an approaching disturbance. The disturbance will track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Delmarva Peninsula spanning Thursday night to Friday evening. To its north, plenty of cold air will be available for precipitation to fall entirely in the form of snow. Light snow should overspread northern MD, southeastern PA, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between 3-7 a.m. Friday and continue into the late-afternoon or early-evening hours before ending. The steadiest snow should occur late Friday morning into the mid-afternoon hours. Roads will quickly turn snow-packed and slippery, so exercise extreme caution in the hazardous driving conditions. A general 2-4" of snow is expected across the region. Behind the winter storm, another Arctic air mass will plunge into the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States from Friday night through the end of the weekend. Northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph are anticipated Friday night before increasing to 15-30 mph on Saturday with gusts up to 35-40 mph. Due to the strong winds, there will be areas of blowing and drifting snow on Friday night and Saturday. Drive within the speed limit, obey travel restrictions, and allow extra space between yours and other vehicles. Low temperatures will bottom out in the teens Friday night with highs only in the low-to-mid 20s Saturday afternoon. As a result, wind chills may fall into the negative single digits late Friday night and Saturday morning and only reach the high single digits Saturday afternoon.

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Exactly - without the clouds, the snow would be waving bye bye. 

You do have frozen ground underneath, so I'd take that bet.  That's something we've not had in well.....like.....

 

forever  

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13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You do have frozen ground underneath, so I'd take that bet.  That's something we've not had in well.....like.....

 

forever  

Good point. I still think we'd lose a fair amount of what we have though. There was melting yesterday under full sun and much colder temps with the frozen tundra. 

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25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good point. I still think we'd lose a fair amount of what we have though. There was melting yesterday under full sun and much colder temps with the frozen tundra. 

and if anyone thinks that ground isnt frozen, come take a snowmobile ride with me.

Need fillings replaced in all my teeth from last night.  Im telling ya, it was frozen tundra...like rock. 

Im just gonna use an easy analogy to further my point.....hockey rink

 

Ok, back to weather and Euro snow maps on deck

 

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