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Central PA Winter 23/24


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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

JB and DT both are in the 4-6, 4-8" side of us. 

but to bubbles point, temps are cold, but not THAT cold.  At height of storm (ish), here are 700s.  Not supportive of 20:1 IMO.  12-14 as he suggested is more reasonable.  

Edit: Norther westers may get backside fluff factor, but not round CTP IMO.

namconus_T700_eus_26.png

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11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

IMG_7758.jpeg.f3332c5fe4da6a58e61ab24be6c1368d.jpeg

Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. 
 

Forecast

Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right

Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right

Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) 

Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys)

Zone E: 5-10” 

Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7”

Hey guys. Thought I’d stop by and provide my forecast for the coming event. Looks like PA is solidly in my Zone D with a small piece in the Catoctins. Liking 3-5” for much of the subforum. Min of 2” and max of 7” in the highest elevations if everything broke right. Think 3-5” is a good call for the time being. Let’s freshen up this snow! :weight_lift:

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

9 was my low. 

I forgot to look, but when my wife went out to start her car, and came in, I asked "is it cold"....

Her reply....."this is bullshit".

 

Only reading I got for ya this morning.  :D

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey guys. Thought I’d stop by and provide my forecast for the coming event. Looks like PA is solidly in my Zone D with a small piece in the Catoctins. Liking 3-5” for much of the subforum. Min of 2” and max of 7” in the highest elevations if everything broke right. Think 3-5” is a good call for the time being. Let’s freshen up this snow! :weight_lift:

Thanks for sharing bud.  Looks like you dropped a dookie on Adams County line.  lol

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GFS transfers to the SE Coast quite early and the resulting SLP remains fairly week as it traverses Northeast fairly far off shore....snow map below but a note of caution with this one is that it requires the coastal influence to get these levels in SC and East PA.    Technically there is no snow in those areas when the lowest level of pressure moves offshore.  Would probably be some snow with the 500 pass but probably not this much if the coastal scoots faster.   Miller B fun. 

 

image.thumb.png.b0c036b4bf4cabf099271eb17fafde5c.png

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For those interested in such things, here are the biggest totals for the lake effect event from Jan. 16-18, off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, respectively:

...Erie County...
West Seneca 2.5 SE           37.8 in   0600 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
West Seneca 2.8 ENE          29.0 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
Buffalo 3.7 SE               24.5 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
3 N Lackawanna               24.3 in   0800 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
Elma Center 1.8 SE           22.3 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
Orchard Park                 21.0 in   0719 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
Hamburg 2.0 N                20.8 in   0741 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
Lancaster 0.3 S              20.3 in   0600 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
East Aurora 0.1 ENE          19.3 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
Wales                        16.0 in   0700 AM 01/18   COOP
Boston 2.5 NE                14.8 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
3 SW Elma                    13.5 in   0630 AM 01/18   Cocorahs
Cheektowaga 2.7 NE           13.1 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
Hamburg 0.4 WSW              13.0 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
1 WNW Alden                  12.8 in   0800 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
 N Buffalo Airport           12.2 in   0700 AM 01/18   Official NWS Obs
Eden 1.4 SSE                 11.5 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
Glenwood 1.5 SE              10.0 in   0800 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
2 NW West Falls              10.0 in   0802 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
3 SE West Seneca             9.8 in    0600 AM 01/18   NWS Employee
...Jefferson County...
4 NW Copenhagen              40.0 in   0825 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
5 SE Black River             35.8 in   0741 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
West Carthage 0.3 ENE        31.2 in   0700 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
3 SW Natural Bridge          25.9 in   0804 AM 01/18   Trained Spotter
Watertown 0.9 SSW            21.5 in   0645 AM 01/18   COCORAHS
5 S Black River              18.0 in   0615 PM 01/17   Public
Watertown                    17.4 in   0700 PM 01/17   Trained Spotter
West Carthage                17.0 in   0715 PM 01/17   Trained Spotter
1 SSW Deferiet               15.8 in   0100 PM 01/17   Trained Spotter
Adams                        15.5 in   0836 AM 01/18   Public
1 S Calcium                  13.0 in   0430 PM 01/17   Trained Spotter
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27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the Icon at 120hrs, I wonder if that rain on Tuesday may start as some sort of frozen on this run or future runs. It's building a 1040 High into Quebec.

Disco already mentions this...albeit brief, that 1047hp might cause a pause in the warm that will eventually ensue.

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nams fairly similar to it.

coastal sounds like its the only real rug tugger for us.  I'm hoping for SLP in WVA to hold together as long as possible (based on progressive flow aloft and lack of trough in east, but thats wishcasting.  Coastal is largely a miss for most...even us far easters in CTP land

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33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Welcome back Jon. 

I'm sorry for the public bickering I took part in with the trolls. I didn't mean to add fuel to the fire.

My break had nothing to do with the regulars. It was the outsiders coming in with their bullshit. they didn't come in peace. Seems like they're gone now. 

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