paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: read this morning, weather concerns again for the KC/Bills game this weekend Sunday looks dry for them but cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Good to see that. Allows a little buffer if it comes north at last minute. . smart minds think alike and was literally what I thought when I read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, paweather said: JB and DT both are in the 4-6, 4-8" side of us. but to bubbles point, temps are cold, but not THAT cold. At height of storm (ish), here are 700s. Not supportive of 20:1 IMO. 12-14 as he suggested is more reasonable. Edit: Norther westers may get backside fluff factor, but not round CTP IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 was my low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7” Hey guys. Thought I’d stop by and provide my forecast for the coming event. Looks like PA is solidly in my Zone D with a small piece in the Catoctins. Liking 3-5” for much of the subforum. Min of 2” and max of 7” in the highest elevations if everything broke right. Think 3-5” is a good call for the time being. Let’s freshen up this snow! 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, canderson said: 9 was my low. I forgot to look, but when my wife went out to start her car, and came in, I asked "is it cold".... Her reply....."this is bullshit". Only reading I got for ya this morning. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Welcome back @sauss06. I honestly do volunteer to be mod of this board to keep it civil and the trolls out of here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Snow aloft over me. That renegade area of snow ahead of the main course is more expansive than modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys. Thought I’d stop by and provide my forecast for the coming event. Looks like PA is solidly in my Zone D with a small piece in the Catoctins. Liking 3-5” for much of the subforum. Min of 2” and max of 7” in the highest elevations if everything broke right. Think 3-5” is a good call for the time being. Let’s freshen up this snow! Thanks for sharing bud. Looks like you dropped a dookie on Adams County line. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Snow aloft over me. That renegade area of snow ahead of the main course is more expansive than modeling. WAA so often does this. Even if some is virga, still gets the juices flowin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Icon a quick mover....1-3" on Pivotal for almost all of Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Icon a quick mover....1-3" on Pivotal for almost all of Eastern PA. Rgem similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Icon a quick mover....1-3" on Pivotal for almost all of Eastern PA. Forget the globals we are well within the Nam range. J/K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nws just bumped me back up to 2-4". Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looking at the Icon at 120hrs, I wonder if that rain on Tuesday may start as some sort of frozen on this run or future runs. It's building a 1040 High into Quebec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, paweather said: Forget the globals we are well within the Nam range. J/K. About time to roll out some Ensemble snow maps! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Bubbler86 said: About time to roll out some Ensemble snow maps! :-) D@mn you! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Welcome back Jon. I'm sorry for the public bickering I took part in with the trolls. I didn't mean to add fuel to the fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS transfers to the SE Coast quite early and the resulting SLP remains fairly week as it traverses Northeast fairly far off shore....snow map below but a note of caution with this one is that it requires the coastal influence to get these levels in SC and East PA. Technically there is no snow in those areas when the lowest level of pressure moves offshore. Would probably be some snow with the 500 pass but probably not this much if the coastal scoots faster. Miller B fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 For those interested in such things, here are the biggest totals for the lake effect event from Jan. 16-18, off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, respectively: ...Erie County... West Seneca 2.5 SE 37.8 in 0600 AM 01/18 COCORAHS West Seneca 2.8 ENE 29.0 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS Buffalo 3.7 SE 24.5 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS 3 N Lackawanna 24.3 in 0800 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter Elma Center 1.8 SE 22.3 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS Orchard Park 21.0 in 0719 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter Hamburg 2.0 N 20.8 in 0741 AM 01/18 COCORAHS Lancaster 0.3 S 20.3 in 0600 AM 01/18 COCORAHS East Aurora 0.1 ENE 19.3 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS Wales 16.0 in 0700 AM 01/18 COOP Boston 2.5 NE 14.8 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS 3 SW Elma 13.5 in 0630 AM 01/18 Cocorahs Cheektowaga 2.7 NE 13.1 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS Hamburg 0.4 WSW 13.0 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS 1 WNW Alden 12.8 in 0800 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter N Buffalo Airport 12.2 in 0700 AM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Eden 1.4 SSE 11.5 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS Glenwood 1.5 SE 10.0 in 0800 AM 01/18 COCORAHS 2 NW West Falls 10.0 in 0802 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 3 SE West Seneca 9.8 in 0600 AM 01/18 NWS Employee ...Jefferson County... 4 NW Copenhagen 40.0 in 0825 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 5 SE Black River 35.8 in 0741 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter West Carthage 0.3 ENE 31.2 in 0700 AM 01/18 COCORAHS 3 SW Natural Bridge 25.9 in 0804 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter Watertown 0.9 SSW 21.5 in 0645 AM 01/18 COCORAHS 5 S Black River 18.0 in 0615 PM 01/17 Public Watertown 17.4 in 0700 PM 01/17 Trained Spotter West Carthage 17.0 in 0715 PM 01/17 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Deferiet 15.8 in 0100 PM 01/17 Trained Spotter Adams 15.5 in 0836 AM 01/18 Public 1 S Calcium 13.0 in 0430 PM 01/17 Trained Spotter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nws just bumped me back up to 2-4". Lol you speak... they listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Ggem another 1-3" https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011812&fh=54&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, pasnownut said: you speak... they listen Fools! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the Icon at 120hrs, I wonder if that rain on Tuesday may start as some sort of frozen on this run or future runs. It's building a 1040 High into Quebec. Disco already mentions this...albeit brief, that 1047hp might cause a pause in the warm that will eventually ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fools! The HRRR was by far the high point of 12Z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR was by far the high point of 12Z so far. Nams fairly similar to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nams fairly similar to it. coastal sounds like its the only real rug tugger for us. I'm hoping for SLP in WVA to hold together as long as possible (based on progressive flow aloft and lack of trough in east, but thats wishcasting. Coastal is largely a miss for most...even us far easters in CTP land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nams fairly similar to it. Well, the 3K was way below on snow totals for the LSV which is what I was referring to. Nam 12 was about 1" below the higher totals to our East. Nam 12 was surely acceptable but I am a bit surprised most runs after the Nam were 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Welcome back Jon. I'm sorry for the public bickering I took part in with the trolls. I didn't mean to add fuel to the fire. My break had nothing to do with the regulars. It was the outsiders coming in with their bullshit. they didn't come in peace. Seems like they're gone now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Nws just bumped me back up to 2-4". Lol Their site is down. Did you break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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